NCAAF Predictions: SEC, Big Ten Dominate CFP Rankings
- The Big Ten and the SEC each had four teams in the top 12 spots in the College Football Playoff rankings.
- Georgia and Tennessee were the big movers in the CFP rankings.
- Check out all the NCAAF odds for Week 14 at BetUS sportsbook.
There was plenty of movement in the bottom half of the latest College Football Playoff rankings as teams head into the final week of the regular season.
Big Ten teams continue to hold down three of the top four spots. No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 4 Penn State are joined by No. 3 Texas. After that, things get interesting with Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia and Tennessee rounding out the top eight. There will be plenty of college football news made by the Week 14 results.
BYU is the only team in last week’s projected bracket that is not in the field, with Arizona State the Big 12 Conference team now holding down a CFP spot. A three-loss Alabama team is still lurking around at No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The NCAAF futures odds have Alabama priced at +185 to return to the CFP.
Arizona State-Ohio State, Tennessee-Georgia, Indiana-Penn State and SMU-Notre Dame would be the first-round matchups. Oregon, Texas, Miami and Boise State would receive byes into the quarterfinals.
Let’s look at my three items of note from the latest reveal of the College Football Playoff rankings.
3 Betting Angles from College Football Playoff Reveal
1. Will The Big 12 Be Left Out?
When the 12-team College Football Playoff format was announced, things were worded very carefully. Rather than guaranteeing the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC championship spots in the field, it was announced that the top five conference champions would earn spots in the CFP bracket.
The top Big 12 team in the College Football Playoffs is No. 16 Arizona State. Tulane, which is in the American Athletic Conference championship game, is just one spot back at No. 17.
If Boise State and Tulane both win out, there is a chance that the Mountain West and AAC would have teams in the field and the Big 12 would not. The college football odds weren’t predicting that when the season began.
Arizona State, Brigham Young, Iowa State and Colorado are all tied at 6-2 in the Big 12 standings. BYU was projected to be in the CFP field in last week’s bracket. Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia are all 5-3 in conference play.
At least three of the four teams ahead of them would have to lose for any of the three-loss teams to have a chance to make it into the Big 12 Championship Game.
Big 12 says nine teams – NINE – are in contention for the title game. Here are the tie-breaker scenarios: pic.twitter.com/BjMsbLmosW
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) November 24, 2024
If there is a four-way tie for first, Arizona State and Iowa State would play for the Big 12 title. Iowa State is +255 and Arizona State +315 in NCAA football lines to win the conference.
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2. Games to Impact CFP Rankings
There are plenty of games that will decide the conference title game matchups and, ultimately, the CFP bracket.
Colorado can put pressure on the other Big 12 teams with a win over Oklahoma State on Friday night. Arizona State faces Arizona at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday and the Kansas State-Iowa State game at 7:30 p.m.
That means that BYU will have a pretty good idea of what is at stake before its 10:15 p.m. kickoff against Houston. The NCAAF betting odds have all four two-loss teams favored this weekend.
Georgia is in the SEC title game. The winner of the Texas-Texas A&M will oppose the Bulldogs in the SEC championship clash. Texas could still get into the CFP field with a loss while Texas A&M might need to beat both Texas and Georgia for that to happen.
COLLEGE STATION‼️
We’re headed to Texas A&M for the showdown between the Longhorns and the Aggies 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Yb5hd5Rkr5
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) November 24, 2024
In the Big Ten, Ohio State plays Michigan, Oregon faces Washington and Penn State meets up with Maryland. It is possible all three could lose and remain in the CFP bracket.
In the ACC, Miami needs to beat Syracuse to reach the conference title game. Otherwise, Clemson plays SMU. Speaking of Clemson, if the Tigers have an impressive win over No. 15 South Carolina, will they jump into a playoff spot even if Miami punches its ticket into the ACC Championship Game? The first game of note is Tulane playing host to Memphis in a battle of 9-2 teams on Thursday.
Bet Arizona State to make the College Football Playoff field (+130)
3. Good Time to Be a Volunteer and a Hoosier
With the exception of Notre Dame, which isn’t in a conference, the other teams currently in the CFP bracket in enviable spots could be Tennessee and Indiana. Neither of them will play in conference title games so all they have to do is win this weekend and wait for the chaos to ensue
If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Indiana takes care of business against a one-win Purdue team, both teams should remain in the CFP bracket. Tennessee is a double-digit favorite over the Commodores, who have been a dangerous underdog this season.
Per Tennessee vs Vanderbilt betting tips, the Vols have won five straight in the series with a victory margin of at least 18 points in each win.
It could benefit both Tennessee and Indiana not to be playing in the conference title game and risk a loss that could knock them out of the CFP field.
Bet Tennessee to Reach the College Football Playoffs (-150)
Questions of the Day
Who are the first teams out of the College Football Playoff field?
Clemson moved up from No. 17 to No. 12 and Alabama dropped from No. 7 to No. 13.
How many Week 14 games feature both teams in the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings?
Three. No. 3 Texas is at No. 20 Texas A&M, No. 24 Kansas State plays at No. 1 Iowa State and No. 15 South Carolina is at No. 12 Clemson.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
