NCAAF Upset Alert: Boomer Sooners

One game to keep an eye on is the Michigan State-Ohio State contest. The Spartans have been blown out by the Buckeyes in each of the last two years, but can Michigan State hang closer than the 27-point line in Saturday’s matchup?

That doesn’t mean that there aren’t some prominent games with lines certain to catch the attention of those who bet online and are looking for upset specials.

Let’s check the latest stats, injury reports, and NCAAF predictions.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Date, time (TV): Saturday, Noon ET (SEC Network)
  • Line: Mississippi State -9

Both Arkansas and Mississippi State made last week’s Upset Alert. Arkansas came in as a team that could cover against Alabama as a 17-point underdog and Mississippi State was a risky pick as a four-point favorite against Texas A&M.

We swung and missed on both of those games, although Alabama only led Arkansas 28-23 heading into the fourth quarter.

Perhaps Mississippi State will prove us wrong again because the Bulldogs are a big favorite and this feels like a matchup that will finish as a one-score game, especially if Arkansas can slow down Mississippi State QB Will Rogers.

👏 @Wrogers__2#HailState🐶 https://t.co/FG14oQB0Lj

— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) October 6, 2022

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners

• Date, time (TV): Saturday, Noon ET (ABC)
  • Line: Texas -8½

Oklahoma hasn’t been an underdog by seven points or more when listed as the home team since a 1998 game against Texas Tech. The Sooners won that game 20-17 as a seven-point underdog.

The game will be at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, so that is a much different deal than playing in Norman.

Now a perennially underachieving Texas team facing Oklahoma anywhere as an 8½-point favorite will capture our attention.

The ability to sign strong recruiting classes has Texas as a chosen one by some who make college football picks. The lofty expectations haven’t always translated into success on the field.

This is still a situation of let’s wait and see before believing that the Longhorns can roll past Oklahoma.

Keep an eye on the status of the starting quarterbacks. Texas’ Quinn Ewers (collarbone) is probable to play while Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel (head) is questionable.

TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks

• Date, time (TV): Saturday, Noon ET (FS1)
  • Line: TCU -7

Maybe it is just wishful thinking because of the recent history of the Kansas program, but the Jayhawks listed by the college football betting lines as a seven-point underdog seems like undefeated Kansas continues to be undervalued.

TCU is also undefeated and has covered in each of the first two games as road favorites, so it is understandable that the Horned Frogs would be favored – just not by this much.

If the Jayhawks can slow down the top-rated offense in the Big 12 game, this could be another showcase for the best feel-good story in college football this season.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans

• Date, time (TV): Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • Line: Ohio State -27

Yes, Ohio State has won the last two matchups by 49 and 40 points, but the Spartans can’t be this bad, can they?

Ohio State’s offense can be downright scary with elite pro prospects at every position while Michigan State is one of three defenses in the Big Ten to allow more than 400 yards per game. It is just a hunch that the Spartans will be able to do enough to keep this game closer than the 27-point spread.

Michigan State is allowing more passing yards per game than every Big Ten team other than Indiana. Is this the week when the Spartans begin to offer some resistance against the opposing quarterback?

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Miami Hurricanes

• Date, time (TV): Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
  • Line: Miami -3½

The last time the Hurricanes took the field, they gave up 507 yards to Middle Tennessee. One can only wonder how many yards the North Carolina offense will end up with in this game.

North Carolina’s defense is a mess right now so that is playing a role in the visiting Tar Heels being listed as the underdog despite a 4-1 record.

Miami’s pass defense has been pretty solid. However, facing dynamic freshman quarterback Drake Maye will be more challenging than anything the Hurricanes had to deal with in the first four games of 2022.

The college football picks had Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke as one of the ACC players with the best Heisman Trophy odds. He is the second-best quarterback in this contest.

UConn Huskies vs Florida International Golden Panthers

• Date, time (TV): Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN3)
  • Line: UConn -5½

UConn headed into last week’s game against Fresno State 1-18 in the last 19 games against Football Bowl Subdivision teams. After stunning Fresno State 19-14, suddenly the Huskies are road favorites for just the third time since the start of the 2016 season?

Calling FIU’s schedule to start the season soft might be an understatement. Still, one win by UConn isn’t going to erase the issues that the Huskies have had in recent years.