If nothing else has been learned from the 2022 college football season it is to expect the unexpected.
There have been stunning results in pretty much every conference and more could be coming this week as teams vie for spots in the conference title games or simply are playing just for pride.
Four of the six games viewed as the best potential upsets, either straight up or against the college football betting lines feature road teams as favorites.
Coming off a week when we had Miami, UCF, Texas Christian and Washington among the upset specials, time will tell if we hit on some underdogs ready to spring an upset in Week 12.
Kansas State vs West Virginia
- Date, time (TV): Friday, Nov. 19th, 2 p.m. ET (Big 12 NoW/ESPN+)
- Line: Kansas State -7½
West Virginia is a completely different team when playing at home compared to the one that struggles on the road.
The Mountaineers own wins over defending Big 12 champion Baylor and Oklahoma while giving current Big 12 leader Texas Christian a bit of a tussle in Morgantown.
Now Kansas State comes to town having won three of four road games this season.
West Virginia is sixth in the Big 12 in rushing defense so it will be worth watching to see how the Mountaineers handle Kansas State’s 1,000-yard rusher Deuce Vaughn. As for the West Virginia offense, Garrett Greene came in at quarterback for an ineffective JT Daniels so Kansas State will need to prepare for both QBs.
Garrett Greene is one of eight quarterbacks named as a Manning Award Star of the Week! ⭐️
VOTE by liking the photo linked below on Facebook for his performance vs. Oklahoma to be selected as the best of the weekend ⤵️
— West Virginia Football (@WVUfootball) November 14, 2022
Navy vs UCF
- Date, Time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 19th, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN2)
- Line: UCF -16
The last two times UCF faced Navy’s triple-option offense, the Knights allowed 347 and 374 rushing yards.
This Navy offense isn’t as feared as it once was, however, the Midshipmen did average 5.5 yards per carry to throw a scare into nationally-ranked Notre Dame last week.
UCF allowed 5.3 yards per rush in last week’s win over Tulane so it won’t be a surprise to see Navy eat up some clock and limit the number of possessions for the UCF offense to stay close in this matchup.
Virginia Tech vs Liberty
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 19th, 12 noon ET (ESPN+)
- Line: Liberty -10
Liberty is 2-11 against ACC teams and in the two wins, the average margin of victory was 10 points. That is where this line is.
This is not a good Virginia Tech team. However, Liberty has lost to UConn and barely defeated Gardner-Webb so the 10-point line seems a bit on the high side.
Virginia Tech is 0-4 in one-score games while Liberty is 4-2 in contests decided by seven points or less so it is fair to wonder if the Hokies lack the confidence to win a close game.
Virginia Tech is just 3-7 against the Las Vegas odds, but with a double-digit spread to work with, perhaps that will change on Saturday.
Texas vs Kansas
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 19th, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
- Line: Texas -9
Texas has covered in just one of three games when listed by the college football odds as the road favorite. It is also very clear that this Kansas team is much more dangerous when quarterback Jalon Daniels is on the field.
The Jayhawks haven’t lost this season when Daniels started and finished a game and he is looking good to go for Saturday.
Texas still has a chance to reach the Big 12 title game so there is plenty to play for.
Nobody is expecting a repeat of the crazy 57-56 game in 2021 won by Kansas. However, a nine-point spread seems to be a bit much when looking at the college football predictions.
Tennessee vs South Carolina
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 19th, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Line: Tennessee -22
We are not predicting that Tennessee will play its way out of the College Football Playoffs picture by losing to South Carolina. However, each of the last time Tennessee played in Columbia, the result was a one-score game.
South Carolina is fourth in the SEC in passing defense and tied for the conference lead with 11 interceptions so perhaps the Gamecocks can slow down Tennessee enough to cover against the Las Vegas odds.
Something to consider for those who bet online, Tennessee is 8-2 against the spread but South Carolina has gone 1-1 against the college football odds this season when listed as the home underdog.
Utah vs Oregon
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 19th, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Line: Utah -2
Utah is getting respect from those who make college football predictions as the defending Pac-12 champions are favored on the road against Oregon in this matchup of ranked teams.
Oregon is fourth nationally in total offense in home games. The Ducks quarterback Bo Nix played a key role in a pair of November wins over Top-10 teams during his time at Auburn so he is no stranger to playing in the big stage.
Utah’s offense on the road has been solid but hardly spectacular. Oregon is 7-3 and Utah 6-4 against the college football betting lines this season so something will have to give in this one.