If the first month of the college football season has proved nothing else, it has shown that we don’t know what we don’t know.
Last week, three ranked teams fell to unranked squads and a couple others barely escaped the same fate. By the time the final down is played on Sunday (yes, thanks to Hurricane Ian for the college football schedule extending into Sunday), there are sure to be some stunning results.
Not all the losses will show up on the scoreboard, perhaps it is a heavy favorite failing to cover against the college football betting lines with a large point spread.
As a result of the aforementioned hurricane, weather conditions could impact things as well.
Keep on reading for a breakdown of some games where things might be closer than expected. There is a member of the College Football’s Dirty Dozen on the list of potential upset specials in Week 5.
Louisville Cardinals vs Boston College Eagles
- Date, time, TV: Saturday, Oct. 01, 12 noon ET (ACC Network)
- Line: Louisville -14½
Boston College is not a good team and there is a reason the Eagles have one of the spots on College Football‘s Dirty Dozen for the Week. However, there are questions about this Louisville team.
Dynamic Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham was held to 240 yards of total offense in last year’s meeting and that was his second-lowest total of the 2021 season. Both teams are different in 2022 but can the Eagles limit the damage by Cunningham?
The Cardinals are 0-2 in the ACC and have allowed 66 points in those games. Will the Eagles pull off the upset? That would be a nice win if they pull it off. However, staying within 14 points of Louisville seems like an attainable goal.
Oregon State Beavers vs Utah Utes
- Date, time, TV: Saturday, Oct. 01, 2 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
- Line: Utah -10½
Oregon State came one defensive stop away from remaining undefeated and stunning a Southern California team listed by the sportsbook as the favorite in the Pac-12 coming into the season. Now Oregon State gets to face a Utah team that is the current conference favorite.
It has been a soft schedule so far for Utah and the toughest opponent faced by Utah was Florida and the result was a three-point loss for the Utes.
The Utes have the top-rated defense in the Pac-12. However, the offense has struggled to finish drives at times so far in 2022.
Oregon State’s Deshaun Frederick has scored a touchdown in all four games this season.
— Oregon State Football (@BeaverFootball) September 25, 2022
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Arkansas Razorbacks
- Date, time, TV: Saturday, Oct. 01, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
- Line: Alabama -17
Queue up the highlights from last year’s Alabama-Arkansas game to see why those who bet online will be jumping all over this game with the Crimson Tide being favored by 17 points.
When the teams played in Tuscaloosa in 2021, Arkansas just missed pulling off the upset before falling 42-35 in a game when quarterbacks K.J. Jefferson of Arkansas and Bryce Young of Alabama had nine touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Keep in mind that when Alabama played its second road game during the 2021 against a talented Texas A&M team, the result was a surprising loss. Is Arkansas ready to make history repeat?
The Razorbacks are a successful field goal away from being 4-0 and the Razorbacks could keep this game close.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Baylor Bears
- Date, time, TV: Saturday, Oct. 01, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Line: Baylor -2
A week ago Baylor was listed by the college football odds as an underdog on the road against Iowa State. The Bears came home with a hard-earned win.
While it can be risky to go against a Baylor team playing at home, there wasn’t much to separate these teams in the 2021 Big 12 title game. With the way Oklahoma State is moving the ball on offense, don’t be surprised to see the Cowboys earn a bit of payback by taking this one on Baylor’s home field.
Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders leads the Big 12 and is sixth nationally with 342 yards of total offense. Can the Baylor defense hold Sanders under 300 yards like they did in the last meeting?
Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Date, time, TV: Saturday, Oct. 01, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
- Line: Mississippi State -4
Texas A&M has been a hard team to figure out as the 3-1 Aggies could be anywhere from 1-3 to 4-0 right now.
The one thing that is clear is that Texas A&M has one of the best pass defenses in the SEC. Opponents are completing just 52.5% of their passes and have only three touchdown passes.
Mississippi State lives and dies with its “Air Raid” passing offense. Indiana is the only Football Bowl Subdivision team to average more passes per game than the 48.5 by Mississippi State. If the Aggies hold up well defensively, the underdogs could win this game outright.