Picking upsets in the final week of the regular season when many of the games feature matchups between heated rivals is no easy task.
The best way to proceed is to see what games feature college football odds that seem a little too high for the favorites.
Some of the games making the list of upset specials are teams that are either in the national title picture or trying to punch their tickets to the conference championship game so a less-than-focused approach seems unlikely. Still, there will be some unexpected twists and turns in what has been a thoroughly unpredictable season.
Nebraska vs Iowa
- Date, time (TV): Friday, Nov. 25, 4 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
- Line: Iowa -10½
There is plenty on the line for Iowa as the Hawkeyes can clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game with a win.
However, the worst offensive team in the Big Ten being favored by double digits is worthy of inclusion on this list.
Iowa has covered in five of the last seven games when listed by the sportsbook as a favorite of at least 10 points.
Nebraska has lost its last six games. However, the average margin of defeat has been 6.3 points. There will be no bowl game for the 3-8 Cornhuskers and they can pull out every trick in the book to make life miserable for the favored Hawkeyes.
Iowa won’t have tight end Sam LaPorta available and no other pass catcher has more than 305 yards for the Hawkeyes. Jack Campbell will be a leader of a defense that has allowed the third-fewest yards in the Big Ten.
◾️ 10 tackles
◾️ 1 INT
◾️ 1 FF
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) November 21, 2022
Five of the last six games in the series have gone over the total with the college football predictions listing the total at 38 for this matchup.
Georgia Tech vs Georgia
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 26, 12 noon ET (ESPN)
- Line: Georgia -35½
Nobody is expecting Georgia Tech to hand the top-ranked Bulldogs their first loss. However, the 35.5-point line seems to be a little on the high side.
Georgia Tech lost its first two games against Football Bowl Subdivision games by 31 and 42 points. More recently, the Yellow Jackets have been more competitive. They have won two of the last three games, including one against ACC title-game-bound North Carolina.
Georgia has won its last four games by an average of 18 points so it won’t be a surprise to see this game decided by less than 35 points.
One concern for those who bet online and want to go with the underdog is that Georgia has won the last two games in the series by a combined score of 97-7.
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett had four TD passes in last year’s meeting.
Akron transfer Zach Gibson was 13 of 18 in last week’s upset of North Carolina. Facing the Georgia defense is significantly more challenging.
South Carolina vs Clemson
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 26, 12 noon ET (ABC)
- Line: Clemson -14
South Carolina ended Tennessee’s hopes of being one of the four teams to take part in the College Football Playoffs and will look to do the same to Clemson.
Leading rusher Marshawn Lloyd and No. 4 rusher Christian Beal-Smith are both questionable for the Gamecocks.
Was Spencer Rattler’s six-touchdown game against Tennessee a one-time deal or is he ready to do the same to Clemson?
The Tigers are dealing with injuries at the wide receiver position and quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has had an up-and-down junior season. He wasn’t asked to go much in last year’s convincing win over South Carolina but that could change this year.
Louisville vs Kentucky
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 26, 3 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
- Line: Kentucky -3
The biggest question in this game is whether dynamic Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham will play. He did not play in last week’s win over North Carolina State and is questionable for the game.
The Cardinals started the season off by losing three of their first five games and that included hard-to-fathom losses to Syracuse (by 24 points) and Boston College. Since then, 5-1 even with Cunningham missing a pair of games.
The defense has allowed just 13.6 points in those five wins.
Kentucky has lost five of seven games since a 4-0 start. Turnovers have been an issue for the Wildcats and looking at how the teams have played recently, seeing Kentucky favored is a little surprising.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Line: Wisconsin -3
Minnesota is ranked higher than Wisconsin in both total offense and total defense and yet is the underdog in this game.
With losses to Iowa and Purdue, the two teams ahead of them in the Big Ten West Division, there won’t be a Big Ten title game in the future for the Golden Gophers. Still, a win over Wisconsin.
The teams have split the last four meetings and this game could be a tossup so it is quite possible that Minnesota could leave Madison with a victory in a game featuring star running backs Mohamed Ibrahim of Minnesota and Braelon Allen of Wisconsin. Allen did leave Wisconsin’s last game due to injury. Also keep an eye on the status of Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan who has missed the last two games and is questionable.
Kansas vs Kansas State
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 26, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Line: Kansas State -11½
Kansas and Kansas State have both exceeded expectations. The Jayhawks opened the season 5-0 before things headed in the other direction.
Kansas State has won the last 13 meetings with the Jayhawks with the average margin of victory being 31.3 points.
Even with Kansas allowing 98 points, this has the feeling of being a competitive affair.
Kansas State will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez. Will Howard has thrown the ball well in Martinez’s absence, but he doesn’t offer the running threat at the QB position that Martinez does.
Both Kansas and Kansas State are 7-3-1 against the Las Vegas odds this season.