NCAAF Upset Alert: Will the Eagles Soar at Duke’s Expense?
Is Georgia Too Heavy of a Favorite Against Tennessee?
We are reaching a put-up-or-shut-up time in college football.
The pretenders have been separated from the contenders in most of the conferences and the matchups against overwhelmed non-conference foes are pretty much in the rear-view mirror.
These next few weeks will feature some compelling games where one loss could bring an end to a team’s conference or national title hopes.
When looking at the Week 10 schedule, there are some matchups where the underdogs seem more than capable of covering against the college football betting lines and perhaps even winning outright.
Let’s check the latest NCAAF picks, stats, injury reports, and NCAAF predictions. We’ve plenty of NCAAF expert picks for you to consider.
Duke vs Boston College
- Date, time (TV): Friday, Nov. 4, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
- Line: Duke -10
This feels like a dangerous game for the surprising Blue Devils.
Boston College’s pride has to be hurt a bit after being held to a field goal in last week’s game against UConn. There is a reason why NFL scouts are enamored with BC quarterback Phil Jurkovec and the Eagles figure to have something to prove after the UConn debacle.
Duke was expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC standings and credit to the Blue Devils for defying the college football odds. Still, Duke hasn’t been a double-digit favorite on the road since 2015.
There isn’t much of a series history between the teams, however, it might be of interest to those who bet online to know that Boston College won 26-9 as a 3½-point the last time these two teams met.
Tennessee vs Georgia
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Line: Georgia -8
Time for a brief history lesson. The last time the No. 1 and 2 teams in The Associated Press Top 25 met, the team listed by the sportsbook as the underdog covered six times and won the game outright on four occasions.
With the way Tennessee has been moving the ball, seeing the Volunteers as the eight-point underdog seems like Georgia is being given a little too much credit.
One main difference between the 2021 and 2022 Georgia defense is that the Bulldogs have six interceptions this season after coming up with 16 a season ago. Add in the fact that Georgia is without sack leader Nolan Smith and it seems more than likely that Tennessee can stay within seven points even if they don’t win the game outright.
Byron Young, Tennessee’s most disruptive defensive player, is healthy and ready to go on Saturday.
Terrorizing the backfield@byron_97 ranks 2nd in the SEC in total pressures#GBO 🍊 pic.twitter.com/SjOzEjuxs5
— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) November 2, 2022
Georgia has won 10 of the last 11 meetings with Tennessee. The Bulldogs have won the last five games by an average of 28.6 points. However, ask Alabama about how much past success against the Volunteers mattered when the teams met earlier this season.
Michigan State vs Illinois
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
- Line: Illinois -17
With the suspensions coming down after Michigan State players were caught on video attacking Michigan players after last week’s loss, it can be a little risky laying money down on the Spartans. Perhaps that is why the line is showing Illinois as a three-score favorite.
Illinois is one of the best stories of the college football season as the Fighting Illini are in a position to play in the Big Ten title game. However, since 1995 Michigan State is 11-3 against Illinois. The three wins by the Fighting Illini are by three, four, and three points.
Illinois has won the last two meetings in the series and it would not be a surprise to see the Fighting Illini make it three in a row. However, to cover 17-point favorites might be asking a little too much.
Since the start of the 2015 season, the Las Vegas odds have listed Illinois as a double-digit favorite in conference play just once.
Syracuse vs Pittsburgh
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
- Line: Pittsburgh -4
It is easy to be down on this Syracuse team following last week’s loss to Notre Dame. However, looking at how these teams have played this season, Syracuse has clearly been the most impressive team.
One concern is that the Orange are eighth in the ACC in rushing defense and will be going against Israel Abanikanda, the leading rusher in the ACC. It should be noted that Adanikanda is averaging just 4.7 yards per carry since his 320-yard effort against Virginia Tech.
Pittsburgh is the defending ACC champions but have also lost three of the last four games.
Syracuse leads the ACC in total defense so look for the Orange to lead on the defense to bottle up Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis.
Houston vs Southern Methodist
- Date, time (TV): Saturday, Nov. 7, 7 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
- Line: Southern Methodist -3
This is not a great Houston team. However, SMU’s No. 2 rusher (Tre Siggers) and No. 3 receiver (Jordan Kerley) are both questionable and quarterback Tanner Mordecai is coming off a concussion.
Only South Florida has allowed more yards per game among American Athletic Conference teams than SMU so seeing the Cougars as the underdogs in this one is a bit surprising especially since the teams have split the last six meetings held in Dallas.
