The Alabama Crimson Tide look to bounce back from a disappointing showing in a victory over LSU when they play host to the New Mexico State Aggies in a non-conference contest on Saturday.
Alabama won by just six over the Tigers (20-14) last weekend, while the Aggies come into this one on a five-game losing streak. The college football odds say the Crimson Tide are going to win this one big, but can you trust Alabama to cover a line of 50 or more points when you bet online? Read on as we take a closer look at this contest.
|New Mexico State||+51½||67|
This will be just the second time these schools will face each other, with the Crimson Tide winning the first meeting in 2019. Alabama won 62-10 in Tuscaloosa, Ala., that day, setting the stage for this weekend’s expected blowout as well.
New Mexico State Aggies
Next game: at Kentucky
The Aggies jumped out to a 10-0 lead after the first quarter and led 13-7 at halftime, but Utah State came roaring back for a 35-13 victory on the road. New Mexico State scored its touchdown on an 11-yard run from Juwaun Price, who finished with 36 yards on nine carries.
Quarterback Jonah Johnson was 30 of 44 for 298 yards but couldn’t get the Aggies into the end zone after their initial score. The New Mexico State defense allowed 457 total yards, including 359 yards and four touchdowns through the air.
New Mexico State fell to 6-3 against the spread, failing to cover the 18½-point line. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS on the road in 2021.
The Aggies appear to be near full strength.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Next game: vs Arkansas
The Crimson Tide faced an unexpected challenge from the visiting LSU Tigers, but Alabama was able to hang on for a 20-14 victory. Alabama trailed 7-0 after one quarter but scored 20 straight points for a 20-7 lead in the third.
Quarterback Bryce Young threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns, but the Crimson Tide’s ground attack was nearly non-existent, finishing with just six yards on 26 carries. Jameson Williams had a big game receiving, making 10 receptions for 160 yards and a score.
Alabama is 5-4 against the spread and it didn’t come close to winning by the 29 points it was favored by. The Crimson Tide are 3-2 ATS when playing at home, including a 48-14 rout of Mercer when they were favored by over 50 points.
Center Darrian Dalcourt left the win over LSU in the first quarter and never re-entered the game. Coach Nick Saban said it was an ankle injury, but Dalcourt’s status for this week is uncertain.
Cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis left the game in the third quarter with a rib injury. His status is also unknown.
Betting on the Game
The winner of this game isn’t really a debate, unless you like to take your shot at the longest of long shots. Instead, it’s whether or not the Crimson Tide can cover the 51½-point spread, and that’s not a certain thing. As stated earlier, Alabama was favored by 54 against Mercer but won by “only” 34 points.
There is certainly a concern after the close win over LSU last weekend, but at the same time, does that mean the Crimson Tide will be focused and looking to avoid a second straight week of Saban’s ire if they don’t dominate this one from the start? New Mexico State could have trouble just getting on the scoreboard.
The running game of the Crimson Tide needs to get some positive results. Look for another dominant effort from the Tide on both sides of the ball, but it’s hard to count on them covering this number.
With that in mind, the over/under total of 67 is likely an under bet when you’re making your college football picks. Even if the Crimson Tide are hitting on all cylinders on offense, the Aggies likely won’t do their part to take this game over 67 points.