Early Best Bets for Week 6

This line indicates that Wake would score about 30 points and I think that the opening line was much sharper than the current line when it comes to projecting the Wake Forest offense in this spot.

Syracuse’s offense has been hit or miss, but the transition to Garrett Schrader has generally been a good one, especially when we look at how it complements the run game. I think that this offense is improving week over week under their new QB and I expect this to show up once again against a Wake Forest defense that is a bit banged up.

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Virginia vs Louisville (Over 68)

The offensive talent in this game drastically outweighs the defensive talent, particularly when it comes to the quarterbacks. Both Malik Cunningham and Brendon Armstrong are having great years.

One thing that I am going to be focused on is Louisville’s ability to get pressure on Armstrong. If you watch Virginia, its offense is very, very good. However, they the Cavaliers take a LOT of deep shots and the QB is very susceptible to taking a sack. Louisville will get to Armstrong a few times, but not enough to wreck the offense like Wake Forest did a few weeks ago.

For Cunningham and Louisville, I think we can expect more of the same. Louisville’s offense and QB are better than the rest of its players, but that is okay vs a Virginia defense that has been brutalized during its run in the ACC. Last week, Miami only lost to the Cavaliers because of a missed chip shot, but that was a team on its third-string QB who got rolling in the second half.

Oklahoma vs. Texas (+3½)

This is one of my favorite spots of the year and I think the Texas team total over 30 is a top-3 vet of the season. That also means I like Texas + the points and this is for a pretty specific reason.

Oklahoma’s defense is “better,” but Texas’s coaching staff and personnel may give the Sooners nightmares. Basically, Oklahoma’s defense very clearly declares its coverage pre-snap and doesn’t do anything to fool the opponent, particularly in man coverage. I am very, very concerned that Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, the offensive coordinator at Alabama when it displayed 100 man-beaters vs Ohio State last season, will take advantage of these looks in a major way.

If you watch the Tulane game and the Kansas State game for Oklahoma, you see a team that is confused by motion and movement and that constantly screws up coverage on running backs. Texas has one of the best running backs in the country who will kill the Sooners if they mess up.

Could Oklahoma put a bunch of emphasis on stopping Bijan Robinson? Maybe, but last week against Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State’s best player by a mile, the Sooners really struggled and they knew he’d be the focal point of the offense, too. Making college football picks can be tough, but this is a favorite of mine.

LSU vs. Kentucky (-3)

College Football odds are constantly changing and this is a line that I expect to go even higher this week after opening at one. LSU lost the biggest game of its season last week at home in a prime-time matchup vs. Auburn, a rival and a team that was ranked (even though it definitely shouldn’t have been.)

Auburn was switching QBs back and forth from a three-year starter in Bo Nix to a player that transferred away from LSU last year. This was a team in search of their identity midway through the game on the road in Death Valley and they still beat LSU. If that doesn’t say something about this team, I don’t know what does.

Now, LSU has to go on the road to Lexington and take on a Kentucky team that just had a signature win at home and is riding high. Maybe the case against Kentucky would be a letdown spot, but I think that the opportunity the Wildcats have to start 6-0 and head into Georgia as a top-15 team is too much motivation to keep this team from performing.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois (+10)

I will say that this one feels a bit gross and is definitely one that I will be monitoring throughout the week. Two years ago, Wisconsin walked into Champaign as a 24-point favorite and ended up losing that game outright. I think this will be on the mind of Illinois even more than the Badgers. This Illinois team needs a big win and I think they may see a wounded animal here.

Wisconsin lost both quarterbacks Graham Mertz and Jake Ferguson last week vs Michigan. The Mertz injury killed the Badgers’ hopes of keeping that game close. The update we got on Mertz today was this, “While there is no update on whether or not Mertz will be available against Illinois, Wisconsin announced he was released from the hospital last night.” We have no idea whether Mertz will start, but if he doesn’t, I’d even look to sprinkle the Illinois moneyline.

The Wisconsin offense has looked horrible and it got 10 times worse without Mertz, which is hard to comprehend. Illinois has ran the ball well and will be willing to sit in a phone booth with the Badgers and that is nice when we are getting 10 points. Take the Illini here.