Texas Tech might be one of the best-kept secrets in the country – for the time being.
The Red Raiders nearly made a national splash in November when they trailed nationally ranked Baylor by three points with less than seven minutes to go. Texas Tech wasn’t able to come all the way back, but the game proved that the Red Raiders could play with anybody.
There were some key losses on both sides of the ball. However, the Red Raiders did an outstanding job retaining most of their top returning players, which is no easy task in the age of the transfer portal.
The sportsbook had Texas Tech (+4000) ahead of only Kansas in the current Big 12 championship odds. That is a sign that the Red Raiders are being undervalued, as is the expected regular-season win total of 5½.
While it is a little premature for those who made college football picks to expect a rise up the conference standings similar to what Baylor accomplished in 2021, there are plenty of reasons for optimism in Lubbock heading into the season. It is pretty clear that second-year head coach Joey McGuire, who won seven district titles as a high school coach in football-crazy Texas, has Texas Tech headed in the right direction.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
- 2021 record: 7-6
- 2021 conference record: 3-6
- Head coach: Joey McGuire
- Odds to win national title: +35000
When looking at the 2022 Texas Tech team, it is impossible to overlook the return of not only starting quarterback Donovan Smith but also the top three rushers. However, a deeper dive into the Red Raiders shows something not seen in a while: The makings of a solid defense.
The Red Raiders had more defensive players listed on Phil Steele’s preseason All-Big 12 team than players from the offensive side of the ball.
1️⃣2️⃣ Red Raiders land on the Phil Steele Preseason All-Big 12 team!#WreckEm pic.twitter.com/QK82sD725M
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) June 16, 2022
Cornerback Rayshad Williams, safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson and linebacker Krishon Merriweather were second-team selections. Defensive linemen Jaylon Hutchings and Tyree Wilson as well as linebacker Marquis Waters were also among the honorees.
It hasn’t shown up in the preseason college football odds, but there are enough playmakers for the Red Raiders to make a run at a second straight winning season.
Texas Tech finished seventh in the Big 12 in total defense, its best finish in that department since 2017. In a span of two seasons, the Red Raiders cut the total yards allowed from 480 to 406. If they can take the next step, this could be a surprise team.
The offense should be able to score even with top receiver Erik Ezukanma and center Dawson Deaton taken in the NFL Draft.
After not throwing a pass in six of the first seven games a season ago, Smith finished with a flurry. Texas Tech won three of its final four games, with Smith throwing for 843 yards with six touchdowns and just one interceptions in those three wins.
Tahj Brooks (568 rushing yards) and SaRodorick Thompson (500 yards) both return. As a result, Xavier White moves from running back to receiver. The top two receivers are gone, but Myles Price, Mason Tharp and Loic Fouonji do return to give Smith some options in the passing game. Add in 6-foot-7 Texas A&M transfer Baylor Cupp at tight end and former Minnesota receiver Brady Boyd and there are the pieces of a pretty good offense.
Texas Tech hit the transfer portal to strengthen its offensive line, with Ty Buchanan coming in from Southern California as well as Cole Spencer transferring in from Western Kentucky. Monroe Mills (Oklahoma State), Cade Briggs (New Mexico) and Michael Shanahan (UT Martin) are other additions to the offensive line. Caleb Rodgers is a returning offensive lineman to keep an eye on.
The top 11 rated transfers involved with Texas Tech included eight incoming transfers compared to just three outgoing ones.
Transfers Sam Carrell (Washington State) and Myles Cole (Louisiana-Monroe) should help the defensive line. When the defense needs a helping hand, or make that a helping leg, punter Austin McNamara is back after averaging 48.2 yards per punt a season ago. The Red Raiders will have to replace Jonathan Garibay, a kicker with one of the strongest legs in the country.
2022 Texas Tech Outlook
The Red Raiders probably won’t crack the top half of the Big 12 preseason poll but this is a team to keep an eye on.
Texas Tech opened the 2021 season with a win over Houston and gave eventual Big 12 champion Baylor all it could handle in their regular-season finale. That was followed by a blowout win over Mississippi State in the bowl game. Those two games certainly will stick with those who bet online.
If you remove the Oklahoma game, Texas Tech allowed an average of 383 yards per game over the second half of the season. If they can approach those numbers this season, look out. The Red Raiders brought in five more transfers than they lost.
If there is a concern, the early portion of the schedule is a bit on the challenging side. After the season opener against Murray State, there are three games in a row against Houston, North Carolina State and Texas. Those three teams have a combined regular-season expected win total of 26. If the Red Raiders struggle through the toughest portion of the schedule, it will be imperative that McGuire and his staff don’t allow some early losses to negatively impact the rest of the season.
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2022 Texas Tech Schedule
- Sept. 3 vs Murray State
- Sept. 10 vs Houston
- Sept. 17 vs North Carolina State
- Sept. 24 vs Texas
- Oct. 1 vs Kansas State
- Oct. 8 vs Oklahoma State
- Oct. 22 vs West Virginia
- Oct. 29 vs Baylor
- Nov. 5 vs Texas Christian
- Nov. 12 vs Kansas
- Nov. 19 vs Iowa State
- Nov. 26 vs Oklahoma
