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Peeking into Crystal Ball to Predict 12-Team CFP Field

· May 16 - 6 minutes read

Can Michigan Repeat as National Champions?

There are already talks underway to expand the College Football Playoff to 14 teams, even though the first 12-team playoff has yet to be played. Before the move to 14 becomes a reality, let’s take a peek into the future and see what things might look like later this year when the first 12-team playoff will be held.

The NCAA football odds have Georgia with the best odds to be a part of the CFP after being one of the teams on the outside looking in a season ago. Ohio State is another team expected to be in the running for a national title.

Peeking into Crystal Ball to Predict 12-Team CFP Field — J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Michigan Wolverines | Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

When looking at the NCAAF news, the dissolution of the Pac-12 certainly made headlines. The swan song for the Pac-12 came when Washington came up short in the most recent national title game. Teams from the Pac-12 have joined the Big Ten, Big 12 and the ACC, with Oregon State and Washington State being left behind in the latest stage of conference realignment.

The champions from the top-five rated conferences will be a part of the 12-team field, with those schools from the top four conferences receiving bids into the College Football Playoff. The feeling is that those conferences will be the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC.

However, that doesn’t have to be the case. That leaves at least one spot for a team from the Group of Five conferences, with a squad from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West and Sun Belt in the 12-team field.

Georgia leads the way at +330 in the odds of winning the NCAAF title followed by Ohio State (+425), Texas (+700) and Oregon (+900).

A Look at the Top Four CFP Seeds

With the moves of Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA to the Big Ten, Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and Arizona joining Utah among the new teams jumping to the Big 12, that is going to shake things up.

Looking at the Las Vegas odds, here is how the top four seeds could play out.

Georgia’s bid for a third consecutive national title ended when a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game resulted in the Bulldogs not being selected to the College Football Playoff.

The Bulldogs, led by Heisman Trophy co-favorite Carson Beck, are priced at -900 to be a part of the 12-team College Football Playoff field.

𝑮𝒆𝒐𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒂 𝒗𝒔. 𝑪𝒍𝒆𝒎𝒔𝒐𝒏

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— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) May 14, 2024

Georgia is favored to represent the SEC in the CFP bracket. Ohio State could join the Bulldogs as the Big Ten champion – the Buckeyes have -800 odds to be one of the 12 teams in the CFP.

Florida State (-250) gets the edge in the ACC ahead of Clemson (-225) while Kansas State (-200) is favored to represent the Big 12.

Odds to be one of the 12 teams in the CFP

Group of Five Bid Up for Grabs

With Southern Methodist and UCF among the recent teams to make the move from Group of Five to the Power-5 – or now the Power-4 – conferences, that has impacted which team that sits outside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC will get the other spot as the conference champion.

The Mountain West’s Boise State (+4000 to make the CFP field according to the BetUS sportsbook odds) could be the leader in the clubhouse to get that bid.

Oregon State (+50000) could be the X factor after being left in the cold when most of its former conference rivals landed in new leagues.

James Madison was ineligible to be that team a season ago as the Dukes were in Year 2 of the transition from FCS to FBS. That two-year waiting period has ended and JMU, which plays in the Sun Belt, is priced at +50000 to win the national title. Liberty (+60000), Tulane (+60000), Troy (+70000), Coastal Carolina (+80000) and Washington State (+80000) are other teams to watch.

Alabama, Miami and Utah Vying for a Spot

There would be seven spots that could be filled by teams from any conference or, in the case of Notre Dame, one not affiliated with a conference.

Oregon and Texas are both at -500 to make the CFP field, Notre Dame (-250), Clemson (-225), Ole Miss (-150) and reigning national champion Michigan (-140) would bring the field to 11.

Now things get interesting. Alabama, Miami (the one in Florida, not Ohio) and Utah are all at -110 to make the CFP field with Penn State at even money.

Tennessee (+200), Arizona (+225) and LSU (+225) are among the other teams to watch.