South Florida and Central Florida are set to collide in an AAC showdown Friday that appears heavily one-sided with UCF opening as a double-digit favorite,
South Florida at Central Florida Betting Lines
|South Florida Bulls||+18½ -110||+750||62 -110o|
|Central Florida Knights||-18½ -110||-1000||62 -110u|
South Florida (USF) trails, 6-4, in the head-to-head series going back to 2007, a run of form that includes five losses in the last five seasons. Central Florida (UCF) won the last meeting, 58-46. South Florida is 6-4 against the spread in the last ten meetings and the total has gone over in half of them.
South Florida Bulls
South Florida limps to the finish line, having lost its last four games including a 45-14 defeat at Tulane a week ago. South Florida closed as a 5½-point road underdog in online betting markets.
It marked the third straight game that the Bulls have allowed 45 points or more, losing 45-28 to Cincinnati and 54-42 to Houston, both at home.
The Bulls defense parted like the Red Sea, allowing 501 yards of total offense to Tulane while the offense sputtered (297 yards, two turnovers).
Quarterback Timmy McClain has passed for 1,666 yards this season, with five touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Running back Jaren Mangham leads the team with 578 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns while wide receiver Xavier Weaver leads the team with 640 yards and two touchdowns.
No new injuries have been reported.
Central Florida Knights
Central Florida rolled to a 48-17 win over Connecticut six days ago, its fourth win in the last five games and fifth in the last seven. The only hiccups in the last few weeks were a 56-21 loss at Cincinnati October 16 and a 55-28 loss at SMU November 13.
Quarterback Mikey Keene had a solid outing against UConn, passing for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Johnny Richardson scampered for 147 yards and a touchdown. Overall, the Knights put up 537 yards of total offense while forcing three Connecticut turnovers.
Running back Isaiah Bowser (leg) is questionable.
Betting on the Game
South Florida Bulls appear to have thrown in the towel and bookmakers are pricing this game accordingly. Put it simply, color the world shocked if the Bulls somehow pull off the massive upset.
With the moneyline offering very little value on the CFB odds board, the betting would seem to be limited to the point spread and/or the total.
Central Florida is merely 4-7-0 ATS, but they’re coming off a big win and cover (-30). The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of its 11 games this season, including three the last four.
At first glance, 18½ points does seem like a lot to cover for a college football pick, but in this matchup it might not be so challenging for the Knights.
The Bulls are 6-5-0 ATS, which includes covering the large spreads against Houston and Cincinnati. However, last Saturday’s loss didn’t come even close to the 5½-point spread, and with nothing to play for in this final game, it remains to be seen what sort of effort they put forth. Meanwhile, the Knights have no shortage of motivation as they’ll be eager to secure the best bowl game possible.
The 62-point total currently trading is high, but given the fact that the Bulls can’t stop running tap water, never mind an opposing offense, this game should deliver a high total.