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Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks: Betting Guide 

Despite losing their starting quarterback to injury, the Aggies remain undefeated in the SEC with backup quarterback Zach Calzada at the helm. Arkansas’s K.J. Jefferson was able to throw for 366 yards against Georgia Southern but is facing the toughest defense he’s seen in three games. Here’s a look at the odds for those of you who bet online.

Game: Texas A&M (3-0) at Arkansas (3-0)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Television: CBS

Betting Lines

Team Point Spread Moneyline Over/Under Team Total
Texas A&M -5 -110 -200 47½ -110o
Arkansas +5 -110 +170 47½ -110u

Defensive lineman Tyree Johnson #3 of the Texas A&M Aggies s celebrates a sack

Head-to-Head

In the last five years, Texas A&M is 5-0, 2-3 ATS, and 4-6 ATS going back to 2011. This is the first time in three years the Aggies are favored by less than 10 points against the Razorbacks and the Aggies have won by more than 10 points only once in those three games. 

Both teams have shown they can easily score more than 50 points combined as they have in each of their past 10 contests, but the dynamic of this game may be a little different. This is the first time in 10 contests the total has been set to under 50 points, which makes me wonder if one or both of these teams can score the way they have been. The Aggies average 28.3 points per game and the Razorbacks average 41 points per game.

Texas A&M Aggies

Next game: vs Michigan State

Last Game 

The Aggies dominated New Mexico, 34-0 with Calzada at the helm. The Aggies offense did enough to cover the 30-point spread and perhaps Texas A&M’s defense didn’t allow for the over with the total set to 49½. 

The struggles with the Aggies have clearly not been with the defensive unit, ranking number one in the country in scoring defense only allowing 5.7 points per game. The offensive line has been the struggle which is not good for backup quarterback Calzada, who showed he was a bit more comfortable in his outing against New Mexico. 

Injury Report

The Aggies will be without starting quarterback Haynes King for several weeks due to a leg injury leaving Calzada to lead the way. Aggies star WR Ainias Smith was sidelined during the second half of the New Mexico game last week with an undisclosed injury.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Next game: at Georgia

Last Game 

The Razorbacks did not have a shut-out performance like the Aggies did with New Mexico but certainly dominated their game against Georgia Southern, 45-10. Arkansas was heavily favored and able to cover the 23-point spread and hit the over with the total set to 52½.

Granted it was against Georgia Southern, Razorbacks quarterback K.J. Jefferson was able to shine a bit throwing for 366 yards in the air, something he struggled to do against Rice and Texas. Jefferson passed for well below 200 yards in both of those games. In all likelihood, the Razorbacks are not throwing for 492 yards and rushing for 269 yards against Texas A&M as they did against Georgia Southern. 

Injury Report

Razorbacks running back Trelon Smith and right tackle Dalton Wagner both suffered injuries in the first quarter against Georgia Southern. Smith suffered a shoulder injury and Wagner suffered a back injury. Smith returned but Wagner didn’t. Center Ricky Stromberg suffered a leg injury in the third quarter and did not return as well. 

Betting on the Game

Point Spread 

The Aggies are favored by five points, the lowest it has been in the past three games against Arkansas. They are working with a backup quarterback who showed he was more comfortable in the game against New Mexico, but not by much. Calzada still showed plays where he looked uneasy in the pocket or when protection broke down. 

Arkansas has shown to be competitive against the Aggies in the last three seasons losing by 11, 4, and 7 points in each of their last three contests against Texas A&M. In my mind, the reason why that line makes sense is the issues the Aggies have had with the offensive. That could help Razorbacks QB Jefferson with closing the gap on the scoreboard. Perhaps capitalizing on an Aggies turnover caused by the offensive line would impact that. 

But it’s hard to think that the Aggies can not win by at least a touchdown which makes me wonder if the line will move down for the Aggies. Jefferson threw for nearly 400 yards against Georgia Southern but only 128 yards against Rice and 138 yards against Texas. He hasn’t faced a defense like the Aggies and Arkansas will not have the success using multiple players as rushers as they did against Georgia Southern. Jefferson is simply not throwing for 366 yards in the air. 

The Aggies offensive line has expressed how Calzada showed more leadership and became more demanding in the huddle. If he can handle the pressure that comes from any breakdown of protection, winning by six points should be feasible at the least. Calzada threw one interception in his last performance. Maxing out at one turnover should be beneficial in terms of the Aggies covering the spread.

Over/Under

The total is set to 47½ points in this game which is unlike these two teams’ history when they face each other. Colorado kept the Aggies to just 10 points and if Arkansas can at least disrupt the rhythm of the Aggies offense while not committing too many turnovers, both of these teams could score below their points per game average.  

With the Aggies still not sure the peak of what Calzado could be, and the shock Razorbacks’ QB Jefferson could experience, the under seems possible. 

Final Score: Texas A&M 28, Arkansas 17

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