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UNC, Newcomer Cal Primed to Go Under ACC Win Totals

This season, the ACC will look slightly different. Over the offseason, they added three new teams. Stanford and California joined from the now-no-longer Pac-12 while SMU jumped to a Power Four conference. Being in a new conference, these teams have a likely chance of hitting the under on their college football lines for win totals.

SMU is joining the ACC after winning the American Athletic Conference, which could make it a hard team to bet the under on. However, Stanford and California are two teams that didn’t thrive in the Pac-12. The ACC might not be a more challenging conference, but it will still be a change, affecting the teams’ records.

UNC, Newcomer Cal Primed to Go Under ACC Win Totals
Antavious Lane #1 of the North Carolina Tar Heels/Grant Halverson/Getty Images/AFP


3 ACC Teams to Fade on Win Totals

1. North Carolina Tar Heels (8.5 Wins)

It seems like a team whose lines are way too high in North Carolina. Part of the reason this line is set so high is the Tar Heels‘ recent success. They have been in a bowl game for the last five seasons and finished 2023 with an 8-5 record.


However, it would be a surprise if North Carolina has similar success this season. A big reason for their success is that they have had with two NFL quarterbacks, Sam Howell and Drake Maye, starting for them since 2019. Last season, Maye played well enough to be selected third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

While the Tar Heels have a relatively easy schedule, it is hard to see them reach nine wins. Their two most challenging games are against Florida State on the road and NC State at home. But without a reliable quarterback, the Tar Heels should lose some of the toss-up games.



2. Miami Hurricanes (9.5 Wins)

Betting on Miami to hit the under is a little more of a hit or miss. After a 7-6 season, in which the Hurricanes lost a bowl game and won only three games in conference play, it would be a surprise if they now have a 10-win season.

On top of that, while Miami is one of those college football icons that consistently brings in great recruits, it has also not had a 10-win season since 2017, and this might not be the roster to change that. The Hurricanes did add transfer quarterback Cam Ward, which could lead to more wins, but they might need bigger improvements than that to become a 10-win team. The line alone is part of the reason why Miami should hit the under.

When looking at Miami’s schedule, it does seem like it could have a decent season, but because of where the line is set, the under still makes sense. The Hurricanes start the season against Florida, which will be a tough game. Miami’s biggest challenge will be going on the road against Louisville and hosting Florida State, likely resulting in two losses. There is also a good chance that they get upset by another ACC team.

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3. California Golden Bears (6.5 Wins)

California had a decent regular season last year, with a 6-6 record, but it lost its bowl game. That might have been a better season than most expected, which is why the Golden Bears might struggle in 2024.

However, the biggest reason the Golden Bears will likely be a team that hits the under this season is their schedule and being in a new conference. They are one of two teams joining the ACC from California, making road games especially difficult for them.

On the road, California will have to face Florida State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and SMU, winning at best two of those games. Then, even at home, where the Golden Bears should have a travel advantage, they don’t have many easy games, facing Miami and NC State, two teams favored to compete for the ACC championship. That seems like a decent reason to look at California to hit the under for college football picks.



Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.


Questions Of The Day

Which new team in the ACC has the best chance of winning the Conference?

Of the new teams joining the ACC, SMU has the best odds of winning the Conference at +1600.

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