Arizona State at UCLA: Betting Guide

UCLA and Arizona State are a feature game in the weekend’s packed NCAA football schedule as they go head-to-head in a battle for the top spot in the Pac-12 South. NCAA Football betting lines tip the Bruins as the 3-point home chalk, but the public is backing the Sun Devils for the upset. Is Arizona St. getting too much respect from both the bookmakers and the public?

Betting Lines

Head-to-Head

Chip Kelly and Darian Thompson-Robinson square off against Herm Edwards and Jayden Daniels for the third time in their careers. Kelly’s Bruins have the edge, winning the first two meetings. Should the Bruins win, it would mark UCLA’s first three-game winning streak over the Sun Devils since they last accomplished it between 2000-03.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Next game: vs. Stanford

Last Game

The Sun Devils are coming off a 35-13 win over Colorado, bouncing back from a 27-17 loss to BYU that cost them a spot in the AP Top 25. Arizona improved to a 3-1 mark and a 1-0 record in conference play following last week’s win. As well, they covered the hefty 14-point spread comfortably with the 22-point margin of victory. However, somewhat surprisingly, it marked their first cover of the season.

The Sun Devils have a 3-1 record on the season with an average winning margin of 16.5 points, but they have a 1-3 record against the spread (ATS), which includes a -7.6 differential versus the spread.

Arizona got off to a strong start against Colorado and dominated the game instantly. They never trailed once. Daniels went 18-of-25 for 236 yards and zero touchdowns or interceptions, and he rushed for 75 yards and two scores. Running back Rachaad White was the second-leading rusher with 37 yards and 1 score after catching a pass from wide receiver Ricky Pearsall.

Injury Report

Tight end Jalin Conyers has an undisclosed injury, but he appears to be probable for Saturday’s pivotal Pac-12 showdown against UCLA. Tight end Jake Ray (undisclosed), running back Deamonte Trayanum (foot), running back Jackson He (elbow), and wide receiver Bryan Thompson (hamstring) are questionable for Saturday.

UCLA Bruins

Next game: at Arizona

Last Game

UCLA is coming off a 35-24 win over Standard, kicking off Pac-12 play on a positive note. The Bruins rebounded nicely after suffering a shocking setback against Fresno State, losing 40-37 to the Bulldogs despite closing as the 11-point home chalk for Week 3 NFL picks against the spread.

The Bruins got off to a fast start against the Cardinal, reeling off a couple of touchdowns in the first quarter and going up 21-7 by the end of the first half. The Cardinal narrowed UCLA’s lead to seven points in the third quarter and then rallied valiantly to draw level in a thrilling fourth quarter that could have gone either way. But Thompson-Robinson, nursing a banged-up shoulder, rose to the occasion. He threw a tiebreaking 75-yard touchdown pass to nudge the Bruins back in front. Then added another clinching touchdown late in the game to lift the Bruins to the sensational victory.

The Bruins are 3-1-0 SU and ATS with a 13.2 margin of victory on average and a +5.5 differential versus the spread

Injury Report

Thompson-Robinson (arm) is listed as probable but running back Ethan Fernea (hand) is out indefinitely.

Betting on the Game

Point Spread

UCLA opened as the field-goal favorite on the board, and the line has held firm for the better part of the week. If home-field advantage is worth approximately 2.8 points, as per Las Vegas NFL oddsmakers, the inference is that little would separate these programs on neutral ground.

Hence, we can say that both sides are getting a lot of respect from the bookmakers. The public, however, has other ideas the Arizona State Sun Devils appear to be getting the bulk of the action. As per consensus betting reports, approximately 67% of the tickets are with the visitors to cover as the +3 road underdogs.

Moneyline

UCLA is a firm home favorite on the moneyline, priced at -160 on the NCAAF odds board (bet $160 to win $100). Arizona St. is priced at +140 (bet $100 to win $140) to pull off the upset on the road. In terms of value, the Sun Devils strike an attractive pose as the +140 road pups, but the question remains whether they can deliver. Keep in mind that Arizona has lost two in a row to UCLA..

Over/Under

The total is currently on the higher side of the scale at 55½-points, but it’s slightly lower than the 56-point total that went to press in lookahead lines before Week4. In fact, markets went to press with a 55-point total at the start of the week but the line moved up soon after quarterback Thompson-Robinson’s status was clarified. The potential fitness question marks that hung over UCLA’s quarterback after he banged up his shoulder last week likely impacted the line and betting. As it started to look like he was going to start, the line began trending upwards.

Final Score: UCLA Bruins 35, Arizona St. Sun Devils 30