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Auburn vs Texas A&M NCAA Football Predictions, Pick and Odds: Will Aggies Passing Game Be Too Much for Tigers?
Auburn and Texas A&M begin SEC play with a Week 4 matchup in College Station, Texas, that has the potential to fly under the radar as one of the more entertaining and close games on an absolutely loaded slate of action. There are a ton of best college football bets this week, so we’re going to take a look at this matchup and see what jumps out as the top potential plays.
While Auburn is off to a 3-0 start, they’ll face a step-up in competition. The Tigers earned a 14-10 victory over California in a game that saw both offenses struggle to get much of anything going.
As for Texas A&M, they’ve also defeated two overmatched opponents in New Mexico and UL Monroe, but fell on the road to Miami 48-33. The Aggies had a chance to take down Miami on the road, but were outscored by 10 in the fourth quarter en route to the two-score loss.
Auburn vs Texas A&M Betting Odds
Even Statistical Matchup Has One Glaring Difference
At first glance, the numbers for Auburn and Texas A&M are somewhat similar. For starters, the Tigers have averaged 428 total yards per game while Texas A&M checks in at 467. Auburn’s defense is allowing slightly fewer yards per game at 264 versus the 298.3 of the Aggies, but the area that jumps out is A&M’s passing production, as well as how each side has done against the pass.
The passing game has been a focal point for Aggies, with quarterback Conner Weigman totaling 909 yards, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. Although Auburn has done well against the pass, Weigman will be far and away the best signal-caller they’ve faced through the early stages of the season.
If Texas A&M’s passing attack can stay hot in this game, it’s going to be hard on Auburn, and would open up quite a few solid plays for the top NCAAF free picks from this matchup.
Tough Sledding Offensively for Auburn in Hostile Environment Isn’t Ideal
While this season’s Texas A&M group certainly has its differences in comparison to last year, it’s worth noting that the Aggies boasted college football’s best pass defense in 2022, allowing just 156.2 yards per game. Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has been up-and-down through three games and has thrown three interceptions in the last two games. While he’s completed 68.3% of his passes, it’s been for only 517 yards.
Thorne, a transfer from Michigan State, also hit a decline statistically from his second year with the Spartans to last season, throwing eight fewer touchdowns and for 561 fewer passing yards. Although Thorne and the passing attack aren’t the only things to note for Auburn’s offense, the quarterback also leads the team in rushing, with 140 yards and two scores, slightly ahead of running back Damari Alston with 119 yards and one touchdown.
Auburn’s defense stepped up against Cal, but the level of upside Texas A&M brings offensively trumps Cal in a big way, and it’ll make a difference in this game.
Predicted Score: Texas A&M 31, Auburn 14
Auburn vs Texas A&M Game Information
• Game: Auburn (3-0) vs Texas A&M (2-1)
• Date/Time: Sept. 23, Noon ET
• Location: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
• Auburn vs Texas A&M Live Stream: ESPN
Auburn vs Texas A&M Best Bets
Virtually any matchup between SEC opponents has the chance to leave bettors stunned on how it looks in college football predictions versus how the game actually plays out, so buyer beware in many cases, but there’s a lot to like about this one.
The line currently favors Texas A&M and lists them as 7.5-point favorites. In most cases, if I’m leaning toward a favorite who’s laying just over one touchdown and you’re able to buy it down to make the pick a one-score game, I’d deal with the juice and take it. In this game, I actually have no problem taking the line at 7.5, but to play it safe, let’s move it to -6.5 instead for the Aggies.
Weigman and the A&M passing attack, including explosive wide receiver Evan Stewart, who’s tallied 19 catches for 257 yards and two scores this season, should come out hot and keep their foot on the gas. On top of that, if the Aggies hold a late lead, I have no problem relying on running back Amari Daniels (149 yards on 34 carries with two touchdowns this season) to hold things down late and have an impressive day as well.
College Football Pick: Tease Texas A&M to -6.5 (-135)
O/U Bet
In comparison to the recent game results from when these two teams matchup, a projected total of 51.5 is quite a bit higher. While Auburn won last year’s matchup at home 13-10, and they’ve taken four of the last six, the total scoring wouldn’t have cleared this number in any of the previous four matchups. Although the 2020 edition of Auburn-Texas A&M landed on 51 points, the last two have seen 23 combined points in each since.
This year’s game obviously has a number of different variables and things to factor in. But while I think the Aggies have the offensive upside to do their part, the Auburn side still has questions left to be answered on that side of the ball.
Conner Weigman ➡️ Evan Stewart
The best connection that nobody is talking about
— Matt Hicks (@TheFF_Educator) September 2, 2023
I can see it being close, and the three primary weapons in the passing attack for the Aggies (Weigman, Stewart and WR Ainias Smith) could put on a show and prove recently history wrong, but I’ll lean toward the under on 51.5, although it’s not the best bet on the board.
College Football Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)
