Bet Liberty to Cover Big Spread vs New Mexico State 9/7

Liberty, which won the conference championship with a win in the title game last season, started slow but easily won its season opener, 41-24 over Campbell. The Flames are considered one of the top college football picks to make the College Football Playoff as the Group of Five representative.

The Aggies managed to open with a win despite a down performance at home against Southeast Missouri State. New Mexico State had to rally from six points down in the fourth quarter to pull out the 23-16 victory.

The Flames are a huge favorite in this game, giving 23 points to the host Aggies. If you bet on the moneyline, you’ll get +1150 odds on New Mexico State winning this game outright, while Liberty is -2400 for a straight-up win.

The over/under has been set at 55½ points, with -110 odds on each side of the wager. The game is scheduled to kick off at 10:15 p.m. ET on Saturday night at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, with Fubo.tv live streaming the contest.

3 Reasons You Should Be Betting on Liberty

1. Flames Know How to Win in Regular Season

While the season-opening win wasn’t quite up to par to Liberty’s hopes for this season, it was still a win. That makes the Flames 13-0 in regular-season contests under second-year head coach Jamey Chadwell, whose only loss with Liberty was the Fiesta Bowl setback to Oregon.

Starting the conference portion of the season will certainly turn up the Flames’ motors, especially against the team they had to beat in the conference title game a season ago.

Quarterback Kaidon Salter is a big reason for the lofty college football predictions for the Flames this season. The junior is coming off a season in which he threw for 2,876 yards and 32 touchdowns, and he opened this season with a 16-of-23 performance for 242 yards and two scores.

“The biggest thing for us is we’ve got to get him to go through his progressions,” said NMSU head coach Tony Sanchez about Salter. “Last year, we gave him way too much time sitting back in the pocket, he was able to hit his first read numerous times with wide-open throws.”

“We’ve got to get him off his mark and do a better job at forcing him to be a little bit more one-dimensional. A part of that will be on offense and eating up time to not let Salter see as much of the field.”

Salter was magnificent against the Aggies in the C-USA Championship Game last season, completing 20-of-25 passes for 319 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing 12 times for 165 yards and another score.

2. NMSU Not The Same Team as 2023

The Aggies had to have a huge fourth quarter just to pull out a narrow victory over Campbell in the season opener. That kind of effort is going to lead to a blowout against the likes of Liberty this weekend.

A safety, a field goal and a touchdown rallied NMSU back from six points down in the fourth, and the game was finally clinched with an interception by safety Tayden Barnes. The freshman was named C-USA Defensive Player of the Week after he had a team-high nine tackles, 1½ tackles for loss, three pass breakups and the interception.

The moment @tayden_barnes sealed the deal 😎#AggieUp x #RideForTheBrand pic.twitter.com/ENNkuef3I0

— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) September 1, 2024

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Barnes and the rest of the Aggies defense are going to have a major task in slowing down the Liberty offense. Southeast Missouri State outgained New Mexico State 352-270 in the opener.

It’s a far cry from last year’s New Mexico State squad, which ranked second in Conference USA in scoring defense, allowing 22.8 points per game. Sanchez must get a much better effort from his stop troops just to stay in this game.

3. Aggies’ Offense Not Impressive Either

When your starting quarterback goes 5-of-17 for 37 yards and an interception, your team isn’t going to win too many games. But those were the numbers for New Mexico State starting signal-caller Parker Awad in last week’s win.

Awad, a sophomore transfer from Golden West College, struggled in his NMSU debut, with senior Deuce Hogan also getting some time at the position. Hogan didn’t have much more luck, finishing 2-of-5 for 23 yards.

Getting something out of the quarterback position will be key to any chances the Aggies have in this one. Running the ball is certainly the first option, as Sanchez has stated, but eventually NMSU is going to have to go to the air.

It’s just one of many factors that are against the Aggies in this one. The NCAAF football odds are heavily in favor of the Flames for a reason. Don’t think twice about betting on Liberty despite the large point spread, as it will cruise to the road victory.

Bet on Liberty to Cover the Spread -23 (-110)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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