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Bet Razorbacks Ride Wild Upset to Second Consecutive Victory
When the Auburn Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks meet this weekend, it’s a battle of one team attempting to secure bowl eligibility and another just trying to keep the dream alive of a potential bowl game. Oftentimes, these types of matchups can make for the best sports bets, but this one comes with somewhat of an interesting twist.
While Auburn finds itself at 5-4 on the season after back-to-back victories over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, they’ve put themselves in prime position to potentially make it to the postseason. The Tigers have three games remaining on the schedule, with the last two coming against a 7-3 New Mexico State team, followed by a home game against Alabama.
As for Arkansas (3-6) a brutal six-game stretch in which they went winless has derailed a 2-0 start and left a bowl game looking like a pipe dream, unless the Razorbacks can win out. And while the records of the teams tell us one part of the story, statistically, Arkansas hasn’t been that far behind Auburn in a number of key areas.
And if you weren’t convinced the two sides are closer than the records indicate, the fact that Arkansas is favored in this game should help explain it.
Arkansas Primed to Delay Auburn’s Pursuit of Bowl Eligibility?
While the college football lines for Nov. 11 show Arkansas projected to pick up its fourth win of the season, there’s a pretty decent argument to be made that they’re well-positioned to do so. Auburn and Arkansas boast eerily similar offensive and defensive numbers this season, with Arkansas averaging 27.9 points per game and Auburn 27.2.The Tigers rack up roughly 30 more yards per game, largely thanks to a ground attack that’s averaged 190.9 yards,
A similar sentiment stands true defensively, and while Arkansas has given up a few more points per game (2.6 to be exact), they also allow fewer yards per game to opponents.
Both teams had ill-timed losing streaks, with the aforementioned six-gamer for Arkansas and Auburn losing four straight. But while the Tigers nearly stunned both Georgia and Ole Miss, the Razorbacks lost to LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama by a combined 13 points and also stunned the Florida Gators 39-36 in overtime last week.
I think there’s a very real case to be made that Arkansas boasts the better offense, more weapons on that side of the ball and a bigger upside overall heading into this game. None of that may matter when all is said and done, but it does in the Las Vegas college football odds.
Auburn vs Arkansas Best Bet
Arkansas is an extremely balanced team, specifically on the ground, with its leading rusher currently quarterback KJ Jefferson, who has 292 yards and two touchdowns. But that’s due to a three-headed backfield with running backs AJ Green, Rashod Dubinion and Raheim Sanders all between 52 and 79 carries this season, although Green is the only running back averaging more than four yards per carry.
This was a beautiful throw from KJ Jefferson to Andrew Armstrong! I would love to see more of these deep shots throughout the rest of the game. #WPS
— Grayson Pierce (@GraysonPierce4) November 4, 2023
The aforementioned Jefferson has put together a solid year, throwing for 1,802 yards and 16 touchdowns with eight interceptions in nine games. His top target, wide receiver Andrew Armstrong has 623 yards receiving on the season and four touchdowns, all of which are numbers I’m highlighting to show a major difference in comparison to Auburn.
The Tigers’ ground game is what makes the offense roll, with Jarquez Hunter leading the way with 636 yards and seven touchdowns this season while averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. Both Auburn quarterbacks can produce on the ground, with starter Payton Thorne checking in with 337 yards and two scores, and Robby Ashford totaling five rushing touchdowns this season.
This matchup will come down to Arkansas’ ability to keep Auburn’s run game in check. The Razorbacks have allowed 129.4 yards per game on the ground, which places them almost exactly in the middle of the SEC, but with the obvious ability to slow down the opposition’s run game.
I think Arkansas rides the momentum of last weekend’s win over Florida to another victory here in a decent matchup. Consider that the Razorbacks will likely be playing with a bit of added confidence for the first time in roughly six weeks when heading to the BetUS sportsbook.
But to play it a bit safer, I’m going to tease the Razorbacks to +4 in case they fall in a close one and drop the total down from 48½ to 42. Of the nine games Arkansas has played this season, the final score has cleared 42 points seven times, while Auburn’s games have gone over that mark six of nine times when betting online.
College Football Pick: 6½-point teaser on Arkansas +4 and over 42 total points (-125)
Predicted score: Arkansas Razorbacks 27 Auburn Tigers 21
Auburn vs Arkansas Betting Lines
Auburn vs Arkansas Game Information
- Game: Tigers (5-4, 2-4) vs Razorbacks (3-6, 1-5)
- Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
- Auburn vs Arkansas Live Stream: ESPN
Question Of The Day
Which Arkansas player will have a breakout performance against Auburn?
Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is capable of having another one after throwing for 255 yards and two passing touchdowns while rushing for 92 yards and one additional score. I think his hot run in that game carries over against Auburn and he puts up another big stat line.
