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Big Ten Week 11 NCAAF Picks: Penn State May Pose A Threat To Wolverines

Yes, There is a Game with a Total Under 30 This Week

While much of the attention tends to be focused on the powerhouse Michigan and Ohio State teams, in Week 10 late-minute scores by Illinois and Iowa stole the show. Will it be more of the same when it comes to the NCAA football predictions in Week 11?

There might be attention paid to the Michigan-Penn State matchup in Happy Valley with the Nittany Lions having a chance to play their way into the Big Ten East Division conversation with a win. There are some who will look at the underdog Nittany Lions among the college football hot picks for today.

Big Ten Week 11 NCAAF Picks: Penn State May Pose A Threat To Wolverines
Drew Allar #15 of the Penn State Nittany Lions attempts a pass against the Indiana Hoosiers | Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

Three of the five best bets in the Big Ten in Week 10 delivered. Ohio State barely covered in the matchup with Rutgers while Minnesota’s inability to get off the field on a 4th-and-11 play allowed Illinois to score a late touchdown and steal the win.

When looking at the college football picks this week, there are five games with single-digit point spreads and that includes the Michigan-Penn State clash.

When looking at the college football games this week, the Week 11 conference schedule gets underway at noon ET with the Michigan-Penn State, Indiana-Illinois and Maryland-Nebraska games.

Michigan has moved ahead of two-time defending national champion Georgia in the odds to win the national title. Ohio State’s championship odds remain at +700 with Penn State’s title odds going from +1200 to +10000 in the last three weeks.

When looking at the college football rankings, Michigan remains No. 2 in both national polls. However, No. 3 Ohio State is narrowing the gap. Ohio State continues to lead the College Football Rankings with Michigan third and Penn State 10th. Penn State is ninth in both national polls.

Here’s a look at some of the best college football bets to consider in Week 11.

Nittany Lions To Hang With Wolverines

Penn State’s recent track record against Michigan is slightly better than the one against fellow Big Ten heavyweight Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions have won three of the last six matchups with Michigan and the last time Michigan headed to Happy Valley, the results were a 42-13 Penn State win in 2017, a 28-21 victory by the Nittany Lions in 2019 and a 21-17 win by Michigan in 2021. Will the Nittany Lions use the home crowd to make life difficult for Michigan once again?

Michigan is a 4½-point favorite and this has the makings of a game that could come down to the wire yet again.

College Football Pick: Either Michigan or Penn State will score three times in a row – NO +148

Buckeyes Could Score Early and Often

In two games against ranked teams, Michigan State has allowed 41 points and 713 yards to Washington and 49 points to go with 477 yards against rival Michigan.

Now the Spartans get to face an Ohio State team that looks to get rolling after managing eight touchdowns in 13 drives into the red zone over the last three games.

With running back TreVeyon Henderson back, the Buckeyes are a threat to score 40 points each time out. They could get their mojo back against a Michigan State defense that is allowing 29.5 points per game in conference play.

College Football Pick: A team in the Ohio State-Michigan State team to score at least 40 points -108

An Iowa Game To Go Over the Total?

A quick look at our sportsbook shows that all but two games involving a team from the Football Bowl Subdivision level have a total of 41 or higher.

The Pittsburgh-Syracuse game carries a total of 37½ and that seems like a barnburner compared to what could be taking place in Iowa when the Hawkeyes welcome Rutgers to town.

In the previous 14 seasons, the team with the fewest yards per game in Big Ten play is the 2019 Rutgers squad, which puts up 208.9 yards per game.

Iowa is currently at 187 yards per game this season.

Points might be hard to come by in this matchup, but with a total of 28.5, certainly, this matchup can go over that, right?

College Football Pick: Rutgers-Iowa game to go over 28½ points

Some Gooseeggs in Hoosiers-Fighting Illini Matchup?

Three of the last four times that Illinois and Indiana squared off the game finished under the total so don’t expect a high-scoring affair.

Indiana has failed to score in 9 of its last 19 quarters while Illinois has been blanked in 8 of its last 24 quarters.

Predicting both teams to go scoreless in a quarter is a risky proposition, but this just might be the game where it happens.

College Football Pick: There will be a scoreless quarter in the Indiana-Illinois matchup +153

Go with the Wildcats To Cover

It is hard to have much confidence in a Wisconsin team that allowed a mediocre Indiana team to possess the ball for nearly seven more minutes in a Week 10 matchup.

The running game that has been the bread and butter of this Wisconsin offense managed just 101 yards as the Badgers threw the ball on 43 of 71 plays in a loss to the Hoosiers. Now the Las Vegas College Football odds lists Wisconsin as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern

Northwestern is coming off a loss to Iowa when the teams combined for a total of 339 yards. The Wildcats will rely on the defense to keep this game close.

College Football Pick: Northwestern will cover as 11-point underdogs against Wisconsin



Questions Of The Day

Which college football teams in Week 11 are most likely to exceed betting expectations?

Keep an eye on Northwestern as a double-digit underdog against Wisconsin.

Which running back will rush for more yards in Week 11?

Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson has been slowed by injury for much of the last two seasons. He finally looks healthy.

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