While there are a couple of non-conference matchups mixed into the schedule, it makes more sense to focus on the five conference clashes when looking at the best predictions for Big Ten props for Week 5.
The Illinois-Purdue game could go off as a Pick’em. Those who want to see their eyes bleed can always turn into the showdown between Michigan State and Iowa, as neither team has shown the ability to mount much of an offense against Power-5 conference teams this season
Penn State is one of five Football Bowl Subdivision teams with a 4-0 record against the college football betting lines this season.
Michigan joins Penn State as Big Ten teams favored on the road this weekend.
The Week 5 schedule begins with Saturday’s noon ET kickoff between Penn State and Northwestern and Minnesota stepping out of Big Ten play to meet up with Louisiana. Both games have double-digit point spreads.
When looking at college football rankings, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State are all in the Top 10 in the national polls and among the top candidates in our odds to win the national title.
Here’s a look at our Big Ten Week 5 best prop bets.
Lions to Roar Against Northwestern
Northwestern ranks last in the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing 184.5 yards per game. The four-run plays allowed by the Wildcats of at least 30 yards have played a role in those defensive struggles.
Now the Wildcats will face Penn State running backs KaytronAllen and Nicholas Singleton.
Penn State has seen a drop in production from its running game, so perhaps a matchup with Northwestern is just what the Nittany Lions need to hit the ground running.
The question is, which of the Penn State backs do we go with?
College Football Pick: Kaytron Allen 78+ rushing yards (+100)
Wolverines to Air It Out?
Teams love to pass the ball against the Nebraska defense, as the 41.5 pass attempts faced by the Cornhuskers are the most in the Big Ten.
There will be some interesting dynamics with Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and Nebraska’s Matt Rhule, both former NFL head coaches.
It can be risky to go with Big Ten Week 5 props lines for passing yards with the Wolverines since Blake Corum is just one of the talented running backs who can take a game over for Michigan.
It is still worth taking a shot for J.J. McCarthy to take some shots down the field during Michigan’s first road game.
Our college football lines have McCarthy with the 10th-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy. He can help change that with a strong showing on Saturday.
College Football Pick: J.J. McCarthy 245+ passing yards +108
Take A Look At These Other 2 NCAAF Special Articles
- College Football Odds: Top 3 Best Prop Bets in Big 12
- Best ACC Week 5 Props: Heavy on Notre Dame vs Duke
Williams Could Be Busy on Saturday
Isaiah Williams had season-highs with eight catches and 120 receiving yards in a win over Florida Atlantic. He heads into Week 5 leading the Big Ten with 24 catches. More importantly, his yards per catch have moved from 8.7 in 2022 to 13.9 this season.
Over the summer, one New York bettor at @CaesarsSports wagered $1,000 on the Florida Atlantic Owls to win the College Football Playoff at 1000-1 odds.
Bet would’ve won $1 million.
With FAU starting 1-3, I think it’s safe to say this ticket won’t be cashing … pic.twitter.com/NnW3F9BVNR
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 27, 2023
He could be back at it again when Illinois returns to Big Ten play to face Purdue, one of three Big Ten teams to allow more than 1,000 passing yards so far this season.
His numbers versus the Boilermakers aren’t that impressive, with 16 yards on three catches in the 2022 contest and four grabs for 21 yards in 2021. Look for more from the reliable Williams this weekend.
College Football Pick: Isaiah Williams 77+ receiving yards +108
Hemby to Get Things Going
Maryland’s Roman Hemby failed to reach the end zone for the first time this season when Maryland topped Michigan State. Hemby was slowed by injury in the matchup, and with the way the Terrapins took control, there was no need to give Hemby a heavy workload.
However, he found playing against the Indiana defense much to his liking a season ago.
Hemby ran for 107 yards, a touchdown, and had 25 more yards on four receptions.
Going with the first touchdown scorer can already be a risky Big Ten Week 5 prop prediction, but it is worth a shot in this case.
College Football Pick: Roman Hemby first touchdown scorer +440
Somebody Has to Score, Right?
Iowa and Michigan State have played two games against teams from Power-5 conferences this season, scoring a combined four touchdowns and 36 points.
Can this game end 3-2?
Michigan State at least moved the ball a little in those contests, putting up 318.5 yards compared to Iowa’s paltry 155.5 mark.
Perhaps one of these offenses will take control, but there’s little evidence of that being likely to happen. Our NCAAF betting odds currently have Iowa favored by 10½ points, with the 36½-point total the lowest of the Week 5 games.
College Football Pick: Three straight scores by either team – NO (+147)