CFB Picks: Bet Iowa ATS vs In-State Rival Iowa State

The Cyclones took care of FBS school North Dakota last week, winning 21-3 at home. Iowa State isn’t one of the college football picks for the Big 12 title this season, but it is hoping to get to a bowl game for the second straight season.

Iowa had an even more dominant performance in its opener, routing visiting FBS Illinois State 40-0, its first season-opening 40-point game since 2016. The Hawkeyes are known for their defense, but the offense showed a different level in the victory.

The “Cy-Hawk” rivalry game is projected to be close on BetUS Sportsbook, with the Hawkeyes favored by three points at home. Betting on the moneyline will get you Iowa at -160, or you can bet on Iowa State for a straight-up win with +138 odds.

The over/under is set at 35 points, with -110 odds on either side of the bet.

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3 Betting Keys for Iowa vs Iowa State

1. Iowa is Still Very Good On Defense

The Hawkeyes ranked fourth in the nation in scoring defense in 2023, allowing just 14.8 points per game, and they started 2024 playing much the same way, shutting out Illinois State in their opener. That was the team’s fourth shutout since the start of the 2022 season. Playing against Iowa means it’s likely going to be a low-scoring contest, which is just how the Hawkeyes like it.

Iowa’s defense has already forced 2 turnovers in the first quarter… College Football is so back

(via @CFBONFOX) pic.twitter.com/JvpJBXM2NS

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) August 31, 2024

There’s a reason the college football lines have set the point total so low this week, and that’s because Iowa doesn’t let any opponent get comfortable on offense. The Hawkeyes haven’t allowed an opponent to gain over 400 yards in 29 consecutive games, the longest active streak nationally.

Linebackers Nick Jackson and Jay Higgins lead the charge, but the entirety of the Iowa defense is tough and looking to make plays. It’s one of the reasons the Hawkeyes are among the betting favorites to win the Big Ten this season.

Iowa State showed some defense as well in its opener, holding North Dakota to three points and 295 yards of total offense, but the Cyclones took a hit in the game. Linebacker Caleb Bacon is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery on his left leg following a first-quarter injury in the game. Bacon was second on Iowa State in tackles in 2023 with 60.

2. Iowa Hawkeyes Might Also Have an Offense

The most surprising thing about the season opener for the Hawkeyes was some semblance of an offense. A very potent offense at that. Iowa scored 40 points and racked up 492 yards of total offense, the team’s highest total since 2019.

Quarterback Cade McNamara looked very comfortable running the show. The former Michigan transfer is healthy this season after playing in just five games in 2023 due to injury. The senior finished 21-of-31 for 251 yards and three touchdowns but still felt he could have played better.

“We definitely left some plays out there,” McNamara said. “For me, I definitely felt like I left some plays out there in the first half. But like I said after the game, we’re not really too worried about the 40 points. We’re just worried about how can we play our best every single week.”

Freshman wide receiver Reece Vander Zee had an impressive debut, making five catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns. And as usual, Iowa has a tight end that can get open, with Luke Lachey leading the team with six receptions for 63 yards.

The balance of the Iowa offense needs to be there this week, however, so the Hawkeyes are going to need a good game from running back Kaleb Johnson, who had 11 rushes for 119 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Illinois State.

3. Cyclones Must Be Able to Run the Ball

Iowa’s secondary is a tough one to throw against, so if Iowa State is going to make some college football news and win this game, it must be able to run the ball to set up play-action passes.

Quarterback Rocco Becht was solid in the season opener, throwing for 267 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but he wasn’t facing Iowa’s defense. Becht can’t have that kind of day against a Hawkeyes secondary expecting passes, so he must have the support of the running game.

Unfortunately, that running game didn’t look good in Week 1, managing just 86 yards on 22 carries. Sophomore Abu Sama III was the most effective with five carries for 36 yards, but there must be more to the ground attack this week.

We just don’t see Iowa State having enough offensive firepower to be able to score against the Iowa defense, so our pick is for the Hawkeyes to win and cover in this matchup.

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.