CFP Odds: North Carolina vs Minnesota Picks, Predictions

North Carolina went 8-5 in 2023, finishing in a tie for sixth in the ACC standings and advancing to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, where it lost to West Virginia. That was one of three straight losses to end the campaign for the Tar Heels, and now they face life without quarterback Drake Maye, who was the No. 3 pick in this year’s NFL Draft.

Minnesota was just 5-7 in the regular season in 2023, losing its last four Big Ten contests, but the Golden Gophers finished the campaign right, defeating Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. Still, it was the team’s first sub-.500 record since the shortened 2020 campaign, so there’s improvement to be done.

This game is expected to be one of the closest of the week on BetUS Sportsbook, with the Tar Heels favored by 1½ points on the road. If you’re betting on the moneyline, you can get North Carolina at -125 while Minnesota is listed at +105.

The over/under is set at 50½ points, with -110 odds on either side of that wager.

3 Things to Consider Before Betting on UNC vs Minnesota

1. UNC Unsure How to Replace Maye

Drake Maye had a phenomenal two-season run with North Carolina, passing for a total of 7,723 yards and 59 touchdowns in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. But, as stated before, Maye is now in the NFL with the New England Patriots, leaving the Tar Heels to try to find a successor.

Coach Mack Brown has yet to do that, announcing last week that he anticipates quarterbacks Max Johnson and Connor Harrell to both play in the opener, depending on what is working in the game. Johnson has played at both LSU and Texas A&M, passing for 5,800 yards and 47 touchdowns, while Harrell was Maye’s backup last season.

One thing that hasn’t changed is at running back, where the presence of junior Omarion Hampton is one of the reasons the Tar Heels are among the college football picks this week. Hampton led the ACC with 253 rushes for 1,504 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, and he’ll be leaned on this season to help whoever is under center.

A lot of Omarion Hampton’s yards come after contact. He is a physical downhill runner. He’s listed at 220, but runs like he’s 250. pic.twitter.com/eP7HQrEGh3

— Brian Maafi (@BmaafiNFL) August 21, 2024

The North Carolina defense has some talent returning as well, led by senior linebacker Power Echols. Echols was one of only seven ACC players to record 100 or more tackles last season, finishing with 102, earning him third-team all-conference honors.

2. Minnesota Needs More From Passing Game

The Golden Gophers took a step back last season due to an offense that struggled at times, averaging just 20.9 points per game. If Minnesota is going to beat the college football odds and contend in the newly expanded Big Ten, it must be more dynamic on that side of the ball.

Enter transfer quarterback Max Brosmer, who came from New Hampshire. The 23-year-old has experience and talent, throwing for at least 3,150 yards and 27 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.

“We had to be able to bring in somebody who was going to be able to lead the team the minute they got here,” Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck said of Brosmer. “Every decision you make you want to be right and you’re feeling you have to be right, but this one we had to get right, and Max has just exceeded all of our expectations.”

Brosmer will help kick-start the Gophers’ offense, which also features a pair of solid runners in Darius Taylor and Jordan Nubin. Taylor had 799 yards and five touchdowns as a freshman in just six games in 2023 while Nubin chipped in with 559 yards and three scores.

The Minnesota defense must be up to the task against the Tar Heels’ dynamic offense in this one. The Gophers limited opponents to 26.7 points per game last season, but until the offense hits its stride, that will likely be too much against UNC.

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3. Tar Heels Win Close One On Road

North Carolina hasn’t won a season opener on an opponent’s home field since 1992, and the Tar Heels were just 2-4 away from Chapel Hill in 2023, including a 1-3 mark in true road games. Those aren’t exactly the kind of stats you want to see if your college football predictions include UNC on Thursday night.

But coach Mack Brown’s team has a lot of talent coming back and a pair of quarterbacks who have experience at the FBS level. Minnesota is going to be a better team this season, but it will take it a little bit to get traction with Brosmer running the show.

This game should be as close as it’s anticipated to be, but we like North Carolina to win and easily cover the 1½-point spread.

Bet on UNC vs Minnesota

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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