The college football season features another weekend of high-end games to look at in Week 5. Here are three matchups to bet online, which provide noticeable and conspicuous opportunities to cash a winning ticket.
Ole Miss Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide
Odds: Alabama -14½
The trend of teams being big favorites and failing to cover the spread is something which has pervaded college football in 2021. Oklahoma has failed to cover on three different occasions as a double-digit favorite against Tulane, Nebraska and West Virginia. Alabama failed to cover as a 1½-point favorite against Florida last month. Michigan failed to cover as a 20½-point favorite over Rutgers this past weekend.
On that point alone, it seems like a decent play to take Ole Miss plus the points against Alabama. Yet, that’s hardly the only reason – and not even the best one – to take the Rebels with the points in this game.
Start here: Ole Miss scored 48 points against Alabama last year and made the Crimson Tide defense look very bad. Alabama won that game by 15, but the game was closer than the 63-48 score indicated. Ole Miss had Alabama sweating in the fourth quarter, forcing the Crimson Tide to continue to score to hold on for the win.
Second: Alabama linebacker Chris Allen is out for the season, a huge loss to a key player. Allen’s absence might have been the biggest single reason why Alabama allowed Florida to rush for over 250 yards in the near-loss to the Gators. Ole Miss should have favorable matchups vs Alabama’s defense.
Third: Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral is a leading Heisman Trophy candidate. He played against Alabama last year and has therefore had success going up against Nick Saban’s defense. He is playing at a very high level. Ole Miss scored 61 points in its most recent game against Tulane. The Rebels are leaving very few points on the field. They are maximizing their potential and are heading into this game full of confidence.
If Corral plays anywhere close to his normally high standard, Ole Miss will score over 40 points and that means Alabama will have to score in the low 60s to cover the spread. That would be a hard task. It’s unlikely that Alabama could allow 45 or 48 points to Ole Miss and cover a spread of more than 14 points for the second straight year. That would be one of the wildest two-year covers in college football history.
Pick: Ole Miss +14½
Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs
Odds: Georgia -17½
The trend of huge favorites failing to cover the spread will be tested in this game as well. Georgia certainly looks like a good team, but one has to ask: Is that Clemson win overrated a little bit? Georgia beat Clemson 10-3 early in the season. At the time, that game seemed to be an indication that Georgia had a tremendous defense. To be clear, Georgia’s defense was great in that game. It scored the game’s only touchdown on an interception return, but many people thought Clemson was going to wake up on offense and start playing at a higher level.
That has not happened. Clemson’s offense is still a total mess through four weeks. The Tigers gained under 220 yards in an overtime loss to North Carolina State. Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei completed just 12 of 26 passes against North Carolina State. No one would say that N.C. State has an elite defense on par with Georgia’s, but the Wolfpack did significantly limit Clemson’s production as much as Georgia did. Maybe Georgia has been given too much credit for that victory over Clemson, all while the Tigers’ struggles aren’t getting enough attention.
At any rate, if you think the Georgia-Clemson game is just as much a commentary on the Clemson offense as it is on the Georgia defense, you will arrive at the conclusion that Georgia shouldn’t be favored by this many points over an Arkansas team that has blown out Texas by 19 points and handled Texas A&M easily by 10. Arkansas is a good, solid team with physical line play. Georgia is unlikely to overwhelm Arkansas at the line of scrimmage. It should win the game, but this won’t be a total runaway in which the Bulldogs completely steamroll the Razorbacks. It will be a lot more competitive than that.
Pick: Arkansas +17½
Washington Huskies at Oregon State Beavers
Odds: Oregon State -1½
The weirdest opening line of the week was Washington opening as a three-point favorite over the Beavers. Oregon State looks like a much better team and is coming off a 45-27 blowout win at USC, marking the first time the Beavers have beaten the Trojans in the Los Angeles Coliseum since 1960. Oregon State quarterback Chance Nolan completed 15 of 19 passes and made several other big plays when scrambling out of trouble or on designed runs that fooled the USC defense. Washington was taken to overtime by California at home.
The Huskies barely won when Cal was stopped just short of the goal line. The Beavers are playing this game at home and should have a lively crowd to back them up. Jonathan Smith is the head coach of Oregon State. He used to coach at Washington as the offensive coordinator under Chris Petersen.
Smith and Washington head coach Jimmy Lake were together for a short period of time on Petersen’s staff. Smith should be able to find the X-and-O answers that will put the Beaver offense in a position to thrive and make significant plays. Washington, meanwhile, faces a lot of questions on offense and will have a hard time pulling out a win on the road in Corvallis. Go with Oregon State for your college football picks.
