CFP Semifinal Cotton Bowl Betting Guide: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Group of Five non-power conferences finally have their first representative in the College Football Playoff and it’s a deserving one in the Cincinnati Bearcats. The only problem is that Luke Fickell’s team has to take on the powerhouse Alabama Crimson Tide in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on New Year’s Eve.

The undefeated Bearcats are really talented and really well-rounded, but Alabama, coming off a dominant SEC Championship Game win over previously unbeaten Georgia, might just be too good.

Cincinnati is a two-touchdown underdog on the college football odds currently.

• Game: Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
• Location: AT&T Stadium
• Day/Time: Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Betting Lines

Bearcats Might Be Swamped By Tide’s Offense

You can only play the teams on your schedule and Cincinnati not only swept its slate of American Athletic Conference games but, did so in incredibly convincing fashion. They also shocked Notre Dame in South Bend in October, showing that they can hang with and take down college football’s best.

However, the Bearcats didn’t face the toughest of schedules, which is why there was still some doubt the CFP committee would even honor their undefeated record and many blowout wins — Cincinnati only needed to win two games by one score — and give them a spot in the final four. Their 35-20 beatdown of a good Houston Cougars team in the AAC Championship Game was a convincing victory.

So, Cincinnati should be ecstatic to finally get the recognition it deserves and be given the chance to play for a national title, even if the Bearcats’ reward is Nick Saban and Co.

From a college football picks perspective, Cincinnati was pretty good against the spread, going 8-5 mostly as a big favorite. The Bearcats’ elite defense has made their game totals pretty low, though, as the over is just 6-7 when Cincinnati plays.

Three Players to Watch

If Cincinnati is able to really push Alabama in this game, it’ll be because quarterback Desmond Ridder plays extremely well. Ridder has a big arm (3,190 yards, 30 touchdowns) and completes passes at a 65 percent clip, which will always play. But, he has thrown eight interceptions and hasn’t faced a defense as strong as Alabama’s all season. He excels in big games, however, and has good weapons around him.

One of those weapons is running back Jerome Ford, who put up video game-like numbers this season. Ford ran for 1,242 yards and 19 touchdowns on just 200 carries, giving him a yards-per-carry average of over six yards. He’s a game-breaking type of back who could roll off a huge run at any moment. He won’t have a lot of room against an elite Alabama front seven, but he’s athletic enough to make things happen on his own.

Cincinnati leading receiver Alec Pierce will be important too, but so much of the Bearcats’ success this season came on the defensive end that linebacker (and leading tackler) Joel Dublanko should be mentioned. He had 106 total tackles and 5.5 sacks, anchoring a really strong linebacking corps that will have its hands full with Bryce Young and Brian Robinson Jr.

Injury Report

Cincinnati’s only major injury concern is at kicker. Starter Cole Smith has been out since October and won’t be able to go this week, so Christian Lowery and Alex Bales will likely split time there. Neither Lowery nor Bales have been particularly good on field goals — Cincinnati doesn’t attempt many anyway — so that’s something to watch.

Tide Well-Rounded And Battle-Tested

While this Alabama team might not be as good as previous incarnations, that’s a pretty high bar to hit. The Crimson Tide’s only slip-up this year was a strange 41-38 loss at Texas A&M in October in which Alabama allowed a season high in points to a relatively mediocre Aggies’ offense. Until Alabama crushed Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide weren’t even assured a spot in the CFP.

But, that win, in which Young threw for 421 yards and Alabama picked off Stetson Bennett IV twice — was so convincing that the committee knew it couldn’t leave the Tide out. Alabama survived a bunch of close calls in SEC regular-season play, but thoroughly dominating the then-undefeated Bulldogs made up for those lackluster performances and then some.

As a result, Alabama was only 7-6 against-the-spread this year and the over was just 7-6 in the Crimson Tide’s games. Saban’s teams are typically better against-the-spread as they usually crush whoever is on their schedule. This season, the Tide did just enough to win.

Three Players to Watch

Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young is obviously the biggest name for Alabama, as he looks to continue what has been a magical season. Young threw for over 4,300 yards with 43 touchdowns and only four interceptions, and he saved his best work for the Bulldogs, decimating them with ease. He should be the best player on the field on Friday and Cincinnati’s top priority is to slow him down.

Young will miss Metchie a lot but he still has top receiver Jameson Williams, who caught a ridiculous 15 touchdown passes to go with 68 receptions and 1,445 receiving yards. He served more as the big play/deep threat for Young while Metchie played more of a possession role. It might be more difficult for Williams to get separation without Metchie on the other side, but he’s talented enough to make it work.

We’ll go to the other side of the ball for Alabama’s third player to watch: outside linebacker/edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. He racked up 15.5 sacks, 29 total tackles for loss and 91 total tackles en route to winning the 2021 Bronko Nagurski Award for being the best defensive player in college football. It was a well-deserved award for a guy who disrupts the opposing offensive backfield as well as anyone. Ridder and Cincinnati will, literally, have their hands full trying to stop Anderson.

Injury Report

The bad news for Alabama is that they’re pretty banged-up right now. Second-leading wide receiver John Metchie III is out for the season with a knee he suffered against Georgia, as is defensive back Josh Jobe (toe) and running back Roydell Williams (knee). Linebacker Keanu Koht and wide receiver Jojo Earle are both questionable.

Betting on the Game

The point spread for this game opened at 13½ points in favor of Alabama on the BetUS Sportsbook and it hasn’t moved from there since, so it’s likely going to stay in that neighborhood until kickoff.

That’s certainly a fair spread, even if Cincinnati is undefeated and with Metchie out for the Crimson Tide. Alabama has the FBS’ fourth-best scoring offense this season and the 18th-best scoring defense despite playing in the brutally tough SEC, where — most weeks — the Crimson Tide faced a pretty good team.

Ridder is really good and leads a top-10 Cincinnati offense (while Dublanko leads a top-10 Cincinnati defense), but Alabama is a different animal. Even the Bearcats at +400 on the moneyline doesn’t seem like a great value considering just how big of an upset it would be for Cincinnati to win. That number needs to be a good bit higher for it to be a worthwhile pick if you’re betting online.

As for the point total, it’s currently set at a high 57½ points. Both teams have elite quarterbacks and great offenses, but the under might be the move. That’s just a ton of points for a CFP game in which the favorite is missing it’s second-best receiver.