College Football Underdog Bet: Florida State Top Play 9/28

· Sep 26 - 5 minutes read

Florida State is +183 on the Moneyline versus SMU.
Take a look at some of the non-power conference matchups for a few live underdogs.
Here are my best upset bets to play at the BetUS Sportsbook for Week 5 in college football.

Let’s take a look at my best college football picks for Week 5 focusing on the top potential upset picks. We’ve already seen a number of upsets headlined by Northern Illinois upsetting Notre Dame on the road.

College Football Underdog Bets 9/28: Florida State Top Play — Quarterback Shedeur Sanders #2 of the Colorado Buffaloes | Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

Week 5 features a number of double-digit favorites. Which of these faves are vulnerable to a potential upset?

Let’s dive into the best dogs to take on the moneyline.

Bet These 6 Live Dogs in College Football Week 5

1. Florida State ‘Upsets’ SMU (+183)

SMU made quite a statement by destroying rival TCU in Week 4. Spoiler alert: Florida State’s season has not gone as planned and sits as a 5½-point underdog.

This does feel like a bit of an overreaction to the Noles’ underwhelming start to the season. Talent wise, Florida State is a much more loaded opponent than TCU. Will we see the SMU team that lost to BYU or the squad that thrashed TCU?

I’ll take my chance on an underachieving Florida State team to “upset” SMU.

Bet on Florida State Moneyline (+183)

2. Arkansas Has Chance to Top Texas A&M (+155)

Arkansas may be better than we thought, and the Razorbacks proved that with a 10-point win at Auburn. The only blemish on Arkansas’ resume is a double overtime loss to Oklahoma State.

HE WENT UP AND GOT IT 😳

This grab by Isaiah Sategna in Arkansas-Auburn 👀 pic.twitter.com/9oWRyZTVPK

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 21, 2024

Texas A&M, a 4-point favorite, continues to be a bit overvalued in the NCAAF odds.

Bet On Arkansas vs Texas A&M(+155)

3. New Mexico State Stuns Rival New Mexico (+270)

When was the last time an 0-4 team was favored by nearly double digits (-9) in a rivalry game? Yet, that’s where we are for this Rio Grande Rivalry.

Let’s not sugarcoat things, neither of these squads have been particularly impressive this season. Unlike New Mexico, New Mexico State at least has a win, even if it’s over Southeast Missouri State. New Mexico State’s best loss was a six-point decision to a good Liberty team.

Take a flier on the New Mexico moneyline in the NCAA football odds with a +270 return. The metrics show this is more of a coin flip than one team being a 9-point favorite.

Bet On New Mexico State vs New Mexico

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4. Louisiana Is the Better Side Versus Wake Forest (+129)

Don’t get blinded by the ACC jersey patch on Wake Forest’s jerseys, a strong argument can be made that 3-point dog Louisiana is the better team. The good news we will get to find out when they play.

Tulane struggling with Louisiana? 🤨 pic.twitter.com/6EcR8N3bh9

— PSC Highlights (@psc_highlights) September 21, 2024

Louisiana is 2-1 and gave Tulane everything they could handle during the 41-33 loss in Week 4. Bet online that Louisiana pulls the upset versus Wake Forest.

Bet on Ul Lafayette vs Wake Forest

5. Lottery Tickets: Kentucky (+580) and Colorado (+425) Are Live Dogs

Let me be clear, I like UCF to win over Colorado, but this line has jumped from -11 all the way to -15 in favor of the Knights. UCF’s passing defense is the biggest question mark, which happens to be Colorado’s strength thanks to star quarterback Shedeur Sanders.

Ultimately, I don’t see the Buffs having the answers to slow down RJ Harvey and UCF’s stable of running backs. Yet, there is a counter scenario where Colorado will be in striking distance making Coach Prime a solid lottery ticket at +425.

Bet on Colorado ML (+425) vs Central Florida

Coach Prime on UCF coach Gus Malzahn:

“He’s one of my favorite coaches in college football” pic.twitter.com/AjZ3AULqpd

— DNVR Buffs (@DNVR_Buffs) September 24, 2024

Kentucky is a sizable 17½-point dog versus Ole Miss. How do we know Ole Miss is good?

Your homework is to identify which Rebels win is the most notable: Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest or Georgia Southern.

The Wildcats at least have already had two SEC matchups against Georgia and South Carolina. Kentucky looked a lot better in their one-point loss to Georgia than the team’s blowout defeat to South Carolina.

Bet on Kentucky ML (+580) vs Mississippi

Both Colorado and Kentucky should be viewed as longshots, but are nice lottery tickets at the Sportsbook given the return combined with each team’s upside.