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Title Games Factor in Top Upset of Week 14

Conference Championships Provide Good Upset Value

Week 13 — the last relatively full regular season week of the college football season — is over so now all that’s left are a few stray games, conference championships and, of course, bowls and the College Football Playoff.

While that really limits the slate for Week 14, it means that basically every game left on the board is between two really good teams and should be pretty competitive.

college football week 14 upset of the week oregon ducks
Tom Hauck / Getty Images via AFP

What it also means is that there are a ton of good possibilities for potential upsets, albeit not necessarily huge long-shot upsets. When there are neutral-site games with two teams that might be very familiar with one another, there’s a decent chance that the underdog can prevail whether it’s via luck, game-planning or just superior execution.

Let’s take a look at a few really intriguing upset possibilities based on the current college football odds:

No. 1 Honorable Mention: Oregon vs. Utah

Odds: Oregon +3 (+125)

It’s tough to overlook how Utah beat Oregon 38-7 just over a week ago but, for this Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas, it shouldn’t be the only thing to focus on. Utah is on a five-game winning streak and has looked like the Pac-12’s best team lately.

However, the Ducks are still very dangerous and was rightfully a top-five team for much of the season.

Utah’s defense is slightly better and it clearly did a near-perfect job of shutting down the Ducks when they played, but you know that the fast duo of quarterback Anthony Brown and running back (and solid pass-catcher) Travis Dye will have something new up their sleeves on Saturday.

The Utes did a great job against Oregon’s ground game and it won’t be easy to replicate that performance.

Oregon actually limited Utah quarterback Cameron Rising to 10 completions and 178 yards in that game, but was gashed on the ground as Tavion Thomas ran for 94 yards and three scores. Overall, though, Utah only had 386 total yards from scrimmage, which is solid but not shockingly high or anything.

All Oregon needs to do to win is hold onto the ball, extend drives and stack the box against Utah’s running attack. That’s a very manageable game plan to rely on if you’re making college football picks.

No. 2 Honorable Mention: Houston vs. Cincinnati

Odds: Houston +10½ (+330)

Cincinnati, which would presumably clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff with a win in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, wasn’t exactly challenged much in league play.

The Bearcats ran the table, going 12-0 (including an early-season win over Notre Dame that is even more impressive now). But, they didn’t play the AAC’s other really good team: Houston.

The Cougars had a top-10 offense and top-20 defense in 2021, with their only loss coming in their season opener against Texas Tech. Dana Holgorsen has his team playing at a very high level on both ends of the ball.

Quarterback Clayton Tune (26 touchdowns, eight picks), running back Alton McCaskill (844 yards, 16 touchdowns), and wide receiver Nathaniel Dell (1,027 yards, 11 TDs) are the leaders of a really explosive offense that could inflict damage on the Bearcats.

Luke Fickell’s Cincinnati team is eighth in scoring offense and third in scoring defense in the country, so it’s also well-balanced. But, if you’re betting online and want a reasonable upset pick, you could do worse than Houston.

Cincinnati hasn’t really been challenged since the Notre Dame game so the Bearcats are kind of out of practice with regards to playing against another good team. The value on Houston’s moneyline is really good if you want to take a flier.

Upset of the Week: Georgia vs. Alabama

Odds: Alabama +6½ (+190)

The Bulldogs have been, far and away, the best team in college football this season and while Alabama has been very good — as usual — the Crimson Tide have been far from dominant. Alabama needed a desperate late-game comeback and multiple overtimes to survive against Auburn this past weekend and had a few other close calls in SEC games.

Meanwhile, Georgia’s defense is easily the best in the country (fewer than seven points allowed per game) and the Bulldogs have won every game — since their season-opening win over Clemson — by multiple scores. So, it makes a lot of sense that Georgia is favored by a touchdown over Alabama on the BetUS Sportsbook.

But, it’s still Alabama and it’s still Nick Saban, so they should never be counted out. The +190 value on the Crimson Tide’s moneyline is very enticing as Saban is almost perfect when facing off against his former assistant coaches — of which Georgia’s Kirby Smart is one.

It would still be a huge surprise if Alabama could take down Georgia, but Bryce Young is a Heisman Trophy candidate for a reason and he still has plenty of top-flight weapons at his disposal. In one game, anything can happen, especially at a neutral site.

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