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Fade UCLA as ATS Pick vs San Diego State

· Sep 08 - 3 minutes read

The UCLA Bruins and San Diego State Aztecs look to remain unbeaten when they collide in Week 2 at Snapdragon Stadium.

UCLA beat Coastal Carolina 27-13 in Week 1 but was not as dominant as expected and did not cover the -15½ college football spread. With the victory, the Bruins are now 7-2 straight up (SU) since last season in games they closed as moneyline favorites.

The Aztecs also walked away with a straight-up win while falling short of covering their Week 1 College football odds. To be fair, SDSU’s spread was 34 points against lowly Idaho State. But, the Aztecs didn’t even come close to hitting that mark and won by just one possession 36-28. After beating Ohio 20-13 in Week 0, the Aztecs enter Week 2 with a 1-1 ATS record.

UCLA Bruins (1-0) vs
San Diego State Aztecs (2-0)
️ Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
⏰ Saturday, 4:30 pm PT
️ Forecast: 80°

Broadcast Note:
Aaron Taylor is a 2021 College Football Hall of Fame inductee pic.twitter.com/YkMLFPdHh3

— Ski Bum ⛷️ (@Sdsu94Ski) September 5, 2023

Betting By The Numbers

9 | Number of games UCLA has won against SDSU in the last 10 years.
7.5 | The spread in 2019 when the Aztecs beat the Bruins for the first time since 1995.
66.7 | UCLA’s cover rate in 2022 as NCAAF betting favorites on the road.
66.7 | SDSU cover rate in 2022 as NCAAF betting underdogs at home.
2 | Home games covered by the Aztecs in 2022 out of seven tries.

Big Spreads are not UCLA’s Strong Suit

The spread for this Week 2 showdown is 14½ on the current NFL lines board, with UCLA favored by 14+ for the second straight week. The issue I have here is that the Bruins are 3-4 ATS in games where the spread was at least 14 points in their favor since the start of last season.

The truth is that, despite a much better team on paper, the Bruins aren’t the type of team to blow weaker opponents out. They get a lead, play defense and go home winners. In fact, with a 6-7 ATS record in their last 13 games, the Bruins aren’t a great college football bet as favorites, underdogs or anything in between.

On the flip side, as underdogs at home, the Aztecs covered 66.7% of the time and 50% of the time as underdogs overall.

It’s still early in the season, and we don’t have much to go off of, but I feel good about fading UCLA against the spread based on their cover rate since the start of last year.

NCAAF Best Bet: San Diego State +14½ (-110)

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