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Group of Five Best Bets: Memphis Heads 3 ATS Road Picks
The Group of Five matchups this week, spread across the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt. feature a number of great matchups between one or two-loss teams along with a few unbeaten teams in action as well. But some of the best college football bets today worth looking at actually include teams sitting around the .500 mark, all for various reasons.
We’re going to dive head-first into the mix and start things off with a matchup between Memphis and a UAB team off to a rocky start this season.
Memphis Gets Back on Track vs UAB
The AAC matchups this week had some tough games to handicap, but the Memphis vs. UAB matchup marks one of the headliner NCAA football picks for today’s breakdown. The Tigers are fresh off a tough loss to a Top 25 team in Tulane, falling 31-21. Their only other loss this season came against another Top 25 team in the Missouri Tigers.
Memphis has gotten the job done against two above-average AAC opponents this season, defeating both Navy and Boise State in close games. A road date with UAB, currently winners of just one of its last five games, is a great spot for Memphis to bounce back nicely after the Tulane loss.
One big sell for me on this matchup is the Memphis rushing attack against a UAB defense allowing 202.3 yards per game on the ground. Headlined by running back Blake Watson, who has 82 carries for 468 yards and six touchdowns, we’ve also seen fellow RB Sutton Smith average 4.8 yards per attempt en route to 169 yards and two scores. For good measure, Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan, who has 1,697 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns, also has two scores on the ground with 129 rushing yards as well.
UAB’s defense has too many question marks against an offense with talent spread across it, and I think we see that come fully into play as Memphis covers the spread and wins by double digits.
College Football Pick: Memphis -6½ (-110)
Bounce Back.#ALLIN | #GoTigersGo pic.twitter.com/oV3LbMFObb
— Memphis Football (@MemphisFB) October 19, 2023
Appalachian State Much Better than Its Record
When looking at the 3-3 mark for the Appalachian State Mountaineers this season, it appears underwhelming until you take a deeper dive into the losses. Appalachian State has fallen to three of the best teams it has played, including a double-overtime loss to undefeated North Carolina, and three-point losses on the road to a talented Wyoming team and at home against Coastal Carolina.
All three of those losses are respectable, and now the offense, which averages 456.2 yards per game, is set up for success against Old Dominion (3-3). App State quarterback Joey Aguilar has racked up 1,530 passing yards and 14 touchdowns and faces an ODU defense capable of giving up yards and points to the right matchup.
For good measure, while Old Dominion has allowed 132.8 rushing yards per game, Appalachian State running back Nate Noel could still cause fits. He’s been great this season with 652 yards and four touchdowns on just 124 carries. The impact of the rushing attack to still open up the field for Aguilar and the passing game is a noteworthy spot. And we’ll happily take App State laying less than a touchdown here.
College Football Pick: Appalachian State -6½ (-110)
Air Force Keeps Foot on the Gas vs Navy
The matchup between No. 22 Air Force (6-0) and Navy is always a fun one to watch, but the two run-heavy offenses here have one glaring difference in their upcoming matchup. Air Force’s defense has impressed this season, allowing just 240 yards per game, and specifically only 77 rushing yards on average.
If Air Force can contain the Navy’s rushing attack even slightly, it’s going to be a tough day for the Midshipmen. Air Force averages 334.2 rushing yards per game, nearly 100 more than Navy. The Falcons have four players with more than 300 rushing yards this season, headlined by fullback Emmanuel Michel with 497 yards on 113 attempts and eight touchdowns.
I think we see Air Force win this one by two touchdowns or more, even on the road.
College Football Pick: Air Force -10 (-110)
Bowling Green Gets Back to .500 at Home Against Struggling Akron Team
Aside from a four-overtime loss to Indiana (in which they had 17 points in regulation), Akron’s offense has struggled to do much of anything in the past five games, scoring a total of 37 points in the four games, not including against Indiana, and more than 10 points just three times. While Bowling Green has had its own fair share of struggles of late, they’re coming off back-to-back road games, with the most recent a 24-14 win over Buffalo. Now they had back home and met a 1-6 Akron team, while they faced a pivotal spot to get a win in order to keep pace in conference play and could lean on Terion Stewart, who has 539 yards and four scores on just 91 carries this season as a potential player who could change the game.
It’s not going to be the prettiest game of the week, but I do think Bowling Green will get it done and win by double-digits.
College Football Pick: Bowling Green -7 (-125)
Question of the Day
Which quarterbacks for the best Group of Five teams has the most favorable in Week 8?
Colorado State quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, while an eight-point underdog to UNLV should find success. He’s thrown for nearly 2,000 yards already this season with 14 touchdowns and UNLV has allowed 284.2 passing yards per game on the year. Their rushing attack has also struggled to get going which plays a factor here as well.
