Group of Five Best Bets: SMU, Coastal Carolina Headline Top Football Picks This Week

For Memphis to have a shot at the title game, they have to win here, but the same will almost certainly stand true for SMU as well.

The big difference between Memphis and SMU is the one that could make the difference — their defenses. SMU has allowed 290.8 yards per game of total offense and 16.4 points per game. On the otherside, Memphis is allowing 416.3 yards per game and 28.9 points on average.

The Mustangs have ripped off six consecutive wins, and aside from a 36-31 victory over Rice, they’ve won every other game over that stretch by at least 18 points.

Memphis nearly had a brutal slip-up last week on the road against 3-7 Charlotte, eventually winning in overtime after trailing most of the game.

SMU is the hot hand of the two here and while Memphis gets the homefield advantage, it’s hard to overlook how dominant the Mustangs have been in conference play. I’m taking SMU, which is currently laying eight points on the road, but i’ll buy it down to seven just to be safe and eat the -135 odds.

College Football Pick: SMU -7 (-135)

Jacksonville State Rolls Against Reeling Louisiana Tech

Jacksonville State has plenty of reason to feel slighted coming into this game. The Gamecocks joined James Madison and Tarleton State in pursuing a postseason waiver request from the NCAA, which was denied Wednesday night.

Sources: The NCAA postseason waiver requests for James Madison, Jacksonville State and Tarleton State were rejected today. The NCAA Division I Board Administration Committee made the final decision, which echoed the conclusion of the three other committees that met on it.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) November 15, 2023

All three fall under the strange NCAA rule where a team that moves from the FCS to the FBS must wait two seasons to be eligible to play in a postseason bowl game.

Worse than that — the teams also aren’t allowed to play for a conference championship either. This means that after a strong 7-3 start to the season, and while Jacksonville State sits at 5-1 and in the heat of the race to play for the Conference USA title, it won’t even be an option.

With that said, this has been the case all season and the Jacksonville State has still been excellent. While the Gamecocks lost last week, it came on the road against an SEC opponent in South Carolina by 10. The other Gamecocks needed a big fourth quarter to hold off Jacksonville State.

Now, they head back home to face a Louisiana Tech team that’s struggling as of late and enter with a 3-8 record. Louisiana Tech has dropped five straight and seven of eight. And in the final stretch of its season, the Bulldogs will get an unquestionably angry Jacksonville State team in front of their own home fans.

Jacksonville State is the better team, the hotter team and a defense capable of shutting down this Louisiana Tech group. I’m taking the J’Ville State and laying the the -8½.

College Football Pick: Jacksonville State -8½ (-110)

Coastal Carolina Takes Hold of Chance at Sun Belt Title Game … for Now

Speaking of the frustrating NCAA ruling on James Madison, one of the biggest beneficiaries of that ruling could prove to be Coastal Carolina. While the Chanticleers (7-3, 5-2 in conference play) are attempting to fend off Appalachian State, both teams are behind the undefeated Dukes.

James Madison has been making it widely known that it is the most dominant team in the conference, but it won’t lead to a trip to the Sun Belt title game. This means it’s likely either Coastal Carolina or App State who’ll face Troy in the title game.

The Chanticleers play Army in a non-conference game this week and face JMU next week, so they could control their own destiny. I’m taking Coastal Carolina against the 4-6 Black Knights with the latest NCAAF lines listing them at -4½.

College Football Pick: Coastal Carolina -4½ (-110)

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