Group of Five Best College Football Bets Week 11: Pivotal Game for Fresno State

AAC Teaser on 2 Favorites in UTSA and Florida Atlantic

The AAC schedule this week has multiple brutally tough College Football lines to handicap, specifically because a number of them look appealing at first glance. But some teams appear to have mentally struggled to overcome the ability to not check out in a season that’s essentially over and face good teams this week.

After weighing roughly four teams that were in consideration, the final landing spot was a two-team teaser with UTSA and Florida Atlantic.

UTSA sits in a three-way deadlock atop the AAC, as one of the three unbeaten teams in conference play.

While UTSA is 5-0 against conference foes, it has an overall record of 6-3, which leaves it behind both SMU (7-2 overall, 5-0 conference) and Tulane (8-1, 5-0). In order to finish in the top two, the Roadrunners will need some help.

They will have to take care of business themselves against Rice (4-5, 2-3 in conference play) this week. UTSA has been strong at home and while I think the Roadrunners cover the 15-point spread, I love teasing it with the second team.

Florida Atlantic is currently 4-5 overall and 3-2 in conference play. Any hopes of a trip to a bowl game for FAU are going to need a home victory over the 1-8 East Carolina Pirates.

Florida Atlantic has struggled defensively, allowing nearly 415 total yards of offense per game, but East Carolina’s offense has been far-and-away the worst in the conference.

This matchup bodes well for FAU, as ECU averages 277.1 yards of total offense per game, along with 17.7 points, which again ranks as the worst in the AAC. The Owls should be able to cover the 7½-point spread here, but they’re also a prime candidate to pair with UTSA in a teaser, which ultimately results in them being close to a pick.

College Football Pick: 7-point teaser on UTSA to -8 and Florida Atlantic to -½ (-130)

Fresno State Wins Pivotal Road Mountain West Matchup

Everything in me is yelling “trap game” about this spot, but the arguments in terms of the importance for both sides are noteworthy. San Jose State sits at 4-5, meaning it will have to win two of the final three games to become bowl eligible. There’s more on the line for Fresno State.

The Bulldogs took down two of their biggest potential roadblocks in the push for a trip to the Mountain West title game. They first handed UNLV its lone loss in conference play, leaving Fresno State ahead of the Rebels thanks to the head-to-head victory and overall record.

Then came a date with Boise State, which the Bulldogs proceeded to give its second conference loss, putting them in the rearview mirror amid the pursuit of a trip to the title game.

And now it’s a date with San Jose State, winners of three straight, matching Fresno State’s current stretch. While the Spartans are still a game behind Fresno, the concern over a loss here for the Bulldogs includes potentially falling to third, behind UNLV once again.

On paper, this game should be a great one. The areas where Fresno State excels, specifically through the air, is where San Jose State has been at its best, allowing 178.8 passing yards per game. But the same stands true the other way around, as the Spartans average an impressive 167.4 rushing yards per game, while Fresno is among the best teams in the conference at defending the run, allowing 126 yards per game.

After watching Fresno State QB Mikey Keene lead the way to the pivotal wins against UNLV and Boise, though, I’m buying stock in Fresno State getting the job done.

College Football Pick: Fresno State pick (-110)

Troy’s Defensive Dominance on Full Display vs. UL Monroe

You’d be hard-pressed to find a team in the country that’s been more dominant defensively than Troy over the span of the past five games. During that five-game stretch, all of which were wins, Troy has outscored its opponents 143-33.

Next up for the 7-2 Trojans? A date with 2-7 UL Monroe, which is winless in conference play and has allowed 31.9 points per game defensively. To top it off, the Warhawks rank last in the Sun Belt in both points scored on average (18.9) and total offensive yards per game (338.6). It’s safe to say a matchup with the best defense in the conference and one that deserves to be in the national conversation is less than ideal based on the team’s current outlook.

While Troy is laying just over three touchdowns on the road, it’s tough to see this game being anything short of a blowout, especially since UL Monroe just lost to a (then) one-win Southern Miss team 24-7 last week.

College Football Pick: Troy -21 (-120)

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