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Iowa and North Carolina State Lead Week 13 Upset Specials
Week 13 tends to be rather unlucky for some of the top teams in the country and there could be more chaos to ensue as the college football regular season comes to an end for most of the teams at the Football Bowl Subdivision level. There are 13 ranked teams on the road in Week 13 and that could make for some interesting college football upset picks. However. there are options to consider.
There are two matchups between ranked teams but they are big ones. Ohio State heads to Ann Arbor to face Michigan with the winner getting a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and likely one of the four spots in the College Football Playoffs.
Oregon makes its way to Corvallis to meet with Oregon State knowing that a win would put the Ducks into the Pac-12 Championship Game
There are six Football Bowl Subdivision teams still holding perfect records and five come from Power-5 conferences. That number will shrink by at least one with undefeated Ohio State and Michigan getting together on Saturday.
Ranked teams were 13-10 against the college football betting lines last weekend. Will there be more surprising results to come?
When looking at our predictions for NCAA football, four of our five upset specials came through in Week 12 with Michigan State, Northwestern, and Washington winning outright and Florida covering as 11-point underdogs.
Georgia (+230) and Michigan (+275) lead the way in the odds of winning the national title with Ohio State (+550), Alabama (+650), Oregon (+650), and Washington (+1200) not far behind. Washington jumped Florida State to get to No. 4 spot behind Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan in the College Football Playoff rankings.
We have highlighted five games in Week 13 where it would be wise to keep tabs on the underdog as part of the NCAAF free picks and parlays to consider.
Iowa Hawkeyes (+125) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Friday, Nov. 24, Noon ET (CBS)
When Iowa has the ball on offense, punting on first down might not be the worst way to proceed. However, the Hawkeyes can get after it on the defensive side of the ball.
Iowa is playing a Nebraska team that has scored a total of 44 points and averaged 303 yards per game against Michigan State, Maryland, and Wisconsin in the last three weeks. Those teams don’t play defense like Iowa.
Trey Palmer, now a member of the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, went off for 165 yards in last year’s win by Nebraska over Iowa. There aren’t any Trey Palmers on this year’s Nebraska team.
🔴 9 rec.
🔴 165 yds
🔴 2 TDsTrey Palmer went off in Nebraska’s win last year at Iowa, setting the school’s single-season receiving yards (1,043) record in the process. 💥@treythekiid3 x @HuskerFootball pic.twitter.com/0QNAh9oF8h
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 21, 2023
Add in the fact that Nebraska is last in the Big Ten in giveaways (13 lost fumbles, 15 interceptions) and turnover margin, and when it comes to college football picks this week, this certainly looks like a game that Iowa can win on the road.
Northwestern Wildcats (+6) at Illinois Fighting Illini
- Saturday, Nov. 25, 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Illinois needs to win to become bowl-eligible and the Fighting Illini have put up the second-most yards per game in home games among Big Ten teams so it is easy to understand why Illinois is favored.
However, Northwestern finds a way to hang around.
Since a 28-point loss to Penn State, the Wildcats have won games by 3, 6, 14, and 8 points while losing by 8 and 3 points.
It has been quite the run for a Northwestern program rocked by the sudden forced departure of longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald after accusations of unchecked hazing taking place under his watch.
James Madison Dukes at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+8 1/2)
- Saturday, Nov. 25, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The bubble has burst at James Madison.
First, the NCAA refused to declare James Madison eligible for the Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six bowl games and then the Dukes suffered their first loss to Appalachian State.
If Coastal Carolina had veteran quarterback Grayson McCall available, the Chanticleers would not be 8½-point underdogs at home.
With McCall unlikely to play due to a concussion, receivers Sam Pinckney and Jared Brown will still be there to make plays in the passing game. Coastal Carolina defeated Appalachian State so a win by the Chanticleers or a loss by Appalachian State would give Coastal Carolina the spot in the Sun Belt title game that would have gone to James Madison if the Dukes were eligible.
Washington State Cougars (+16) at Washington Huskies
- Saturday, Nov. 25, 4 p.m. ET (FOX)
A 16-point line seems a bit much in a rivalry game like this.
Washington has been winning but not by much with five of the last seven games finishing as one-score games and the other two being decided by 9 and 10 points.
It has been a bumpy ride for Washington State. However, the Cougars rolled over Colorado the last time out after dropping back-to-back, three-point games.
The only other time that Washington State was a double-digit underdog, the Cougars did enough to cover in a loss to Oregon. Keep that in mind when looking at the NCAAF predictions. Don’t be surprised to see them do it again.
North Carolina Tar Heels at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+115)
- Saturday, Nov. 25, 4 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
Anybody who follows the ACC knows that North Carolina State tends to be tougher to play as the season moves along.
This is not the most talented NC State team. The Wolfpack have won four games in a row and in their last two home games, NC State defeated Clemson and Miami.
North Carolina State has allowed four touchdown passes and intercepted seven passes during the winning streak and the Wolfpack could well hand top NFL Draft prospect Drake Maye a loss in his final regular-season game.
Questions of the Day
Which team is the best value bet in upsetting a high-ranked team in Week 13 of the NCAAF season?
Keep an eye on Ohio State and Oregon State as the underdogs in the only two games in Week 13 between ranked opponents.
Whose defense is the most likely to be vulnerable in Week 13?
Last year at this time, Texas Christian was eyeing a spot in the College Football Playoff field. Now TCU wants to try to slow an Oklahoma team with a chance to earn a spot in the Big 12 title game.
