TCU already beat Kansas State once this season by 10 points and covered as 3.5-point favorites over the Wildcats. But there is more on the line this week for both teams than that mid-season Big 12 clash.
A win would send TCU to the CFP. Meanwhile, K-State has a chance to ruin TCU’s championship aspirations while taking home the coveted Big 12 title for the first time since 2003.
Kansas State Looks to Play Spoiler
The Wildcats wish they had that last game against TCU back. The Wildcats dominated TCU with a 28-10 lead on the road before injuries and poor defense ruined their upset bid.
Now, entering the title game, K-State’s offense looks slightly different.
Adrian Martinez led the team in the last meeting between the two but has since suffered a season-ending injury. Can Will Howard step up and lead K-State to a fourth straight win?
The Wildcats make a strong case for themselves as underdogs here. K-State enters play with a 3-0 ATS win streak and is 4-1 ATS in the last five weeks. Kansas State is 8-3-1 ATS overall and 6-2-1 against conference opponents.
Against fellow ranked opponents, K-State is 2-1 ATS, with the lone loss coming against TCU.
TCU one win from CFP Spot
The Horned Frogs are making their second appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game and, potentially, their first berth in the CFP. But they have to get past the Wildcats first.
Some may think that this game will be a breeze for TCU, who have all the momentum in the world and a lot of motivation to remain unbeaten. Who knows, depending on how the rest of the conference championships shake out, TCU may wind up in the No. 1 spot come Tuesday.
There really isn’t a whole lot to dislike about this team. They are 12-0 straight up, after all.
But the Frogs’ ATS record is excellent too. Despite a few mid-season hiccups, TCU is 9-3 against the spread and 5-1 in their last six weeks.
Worth noting that one of those ATS wins came against K-State at home.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Kansas State vs TCU Game Injuries
Kansas State vs TCU Head-to-Head
The Horned Frogs took a game over K-State earlier in the season 38-28 as -3.5 point favorites. It was, however, the first time TCU beat or covered against Kansas State since 2018. The Over/Under in the last seven contests is 1-6.
Kansas State vs TCU Game Information
- Game: TCU vs Kansas State
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- Day/Time: Saturday, Dec. 3, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Kansas State vs TCU Live Stream: ESPN
Kansas State vs TCU Betting Lines
Kansas State vs TCU Picks & Prediction
This is a tough matchup to call, with so many reasons to like both teams. Aside from the win this season, TCU hasn’t had great results recently against K-State. But the Frogs have everything riding on this game and will want to do as much damage as possible.
With Howard under center for Kansas State, the passing attack gets a bit of a boost. But we think the bookmakers overreacted to him in this game and set the total at 62. That is seven points higher than the previous game.
Yes, that game went over by 11 points, but this is too big of a shift in terms of betting odds. These are still the same teams that played a few weeks back, and one high-scoring game shouldn’t change our perspective that much.
The TCU Horned Frogs are listed at -130 in our Vegas NCAAF lines. This means that if you wager $100 on TCU, you have a chance to win $77. The Kansas State Wildcats are +110, offering a chance to win $110 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives TCU a 56.52% chance to win, with Kansas State at 47.62%.