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Memphis Live Home Dog Over SMU on Saturday

· Nov 16 - 4 minutes read

While reviewing the college football odds for Saturday, we found a battle of AAC rivals where one team is poised for an ATS cover. Let’s analyze the game as SMU visits Memphis and keeps cashing our NCAA football picks!

Nothing Mean About the Green

SMU got a break in the schedule last week when it played host to the North Texas Mean Green. The Mustangs were a 21-point home chalk, according to the closing college football lines.

Memphis Live Home Dog Over SMU on Saturday

North Texas kept it close in the first half before SMU dominated the second half by outscoring North Texas, 28-7, en route to a 45-21 victory and an ATS cover.

Sophomore quarterback Preston Stone tossed for 234 yards along with two touchdowns and one interception, but it was SMU’s relentless ground attack that ultimately told the tale. Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson Jr. combined for 235 of the team’s 318 rushing yards. The Mustangs’ ground game scored four of their six touchdowns.

Tigers Claw OT Victory over Charlotte

Memphis hit the road to Charlotte last week, intending to blow out the 49ers and return home for this week’s showdown with SMU. The game was far more compelling than many believed it would be. Memphis’ defense melted like butter in a blast furnace, allowing a rather pedestrian 49ers offense to score five touchdowns.

Had it not been for a Chandler Martin 60-yard pick-six and 10 points late in the fourth quarter to tie the game, Memphis would have gone home the victim of an upset.

However, Blake Watson took a two-yard plunge into the end zone in overtime to seal the deal on a 44-38 victory but the Tigers failed to cover as 10-point road favorites as indicated by the Vegas NCAAF odds.

SMU vs Memphis Best Bet

Memphis did what was expected of them last week in a 24-point win over a lackluster North Texas squad while the Memphis defense slept-walked against a Charlotte offense not known for much more than possessing a serviceable ground game. That middling rushing attack racked up 223 yards and 5 touchdowns against a porous Memphis run-stop unit.

Take a look back at the action!#ALLIN | #GoTigersGo pic.twitter.com/Dz5k5mgURJ

— Memphis Football (@MemphisFB) November 12, 2023

Therefore, it is logical to ask how the Tigers intend to stop the Mustangs’ more potent running attack. SMU ranks 28th in rushing, chewing up an average of 188½ yards per game, while Memphis’ run-stop unit is ranked 99th, allowing 166 rushing yards per contest.

The key to stopping the run is by lighting up the SMU pass defense and Memphis is more than equipped to do that. Junior quarterback Seth Henigan commands one of the most lethal aerial assaults in the nation.

The Tigers average 296½ yards per game which places them 14th in the country. If Memphis continues to score through the air, the Mustangs will have to forsake the run and get into a passing war with the Tigers.

Lastly, Memphis has been nothing but money when facing its perennial foe SMU, covering in 8 of the last 9 meetings. We should also note the Tigers put up a season-high 44 points last week, which should carry over to this week. Grab the points with the home dog here as this qualifies as one of our best college football bets today.

College Football Pick: Memphis +8

Bet on SMU vs Memphis