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Miami vs South Florida Picks 9/21: Why ATS is Best Bet

  • Last week, Miami’s Cam Ward had an impressive game and he could be in for another big one.
  • South Florida struggled in pass defense last week, so Miami should cover the betting spread.
  • This game could hit the over. Read on to get my best bets for Miami vs South Florida.

 

Right now, No. 8 Miami is looking like one of the top teams in the nation. That has led to the Hurricanes being massive favorites in college football spreads when they go on the road against South Florida this week.

Miami vs South Florida Picks: Why ATS is Best Bet 9/21
Xavier Restrepo #7 of the Miami Hurricanes | Lauren Sopourn/Getty Images/AFP

Last week, Miami looked terrific on the field, dominating Ball State in a 62-0 victory. The game was never even close as the Hurricanes leaned on star quarterback Cam Ward, who had an impressive day by throwing for five touchdowns.

However, it does seem like the BetUS sportsbook thinks this game could be closer than Miami’s previous wins. The spread is set at 17, which gives South Florida a chance to cover. The Bulls did pick up a win last week, beating Southern Mississippi 49-24.

 

Miami vs South Florida Game Information

  • Game: Miami (3-0) vs. South Florida (2-1)
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
  • Day/Time: Saturday, Sept. 21, 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Miami vs South Florida Live Stream: FuboTV

 

Miami vs South Florida Odds and Spreads

 

 

Miami vs South Florida Betting Preview

Hurricanes Just Too Much to Handle

Ward has gotten off to an impressive start in the 2024 season, and last week was just another game to add to that stretch. While it is still early, and Miami has only played in three games, Ward is quickly rising up college football lines to win the Heisman Trophy and he is now the favorite at +450 odds.

Ward is completing 73% of his passes, already throwing for 1,035 yards and 11 touchdowns, with just one interception in three games. Last week, Ward was even better, completing 19 of 28 pass attempts for 346 yards and five touchdowns before he was eventually replaced in the second half.

While Ward is getting all the praise for the Hurricanes‘ dynamic offense, he has also gotten some help from a solid receiving corps. Four players have over 150 receiving yards on the season: Xavier Restrepo, Isaiah Horton, Jacolby George and Elijah Arroyo. Ward has done an excellent job of putting his receivers in positions to make plays, making him look even better.

In addition, South Florida is not the team that will be able to slow down Miami’s passing attack. Last week, while the Bulls did pull off a nice win over Southern Mississippi, they also gave up 397 passing yards.

For South Florida to have any chance to cover the college football spread, they must slow down the Hurricanes’ passing attack. Based on last week, that is not something they can do, which could lead to another big game for Ward and Miami.

Pick: Miami -16½

 

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Can the Offenses Take Over?

College football predictions see this matchup as a game that could be high-scoring. A big reason for that has to be Miami and Ward scoring 62 points last week. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have hit the over in all three games this season.

However, this is their biggest over/under line of the season. Miami has not played in a game this season where the over/under line was set above 60 points, and this line has been set at 65. That is surprising considering the Hurricanes’ defense was dominant last week, blanking Ball State while only allowing 115 total yards.

With this over/under line being set this high, it does put a lot of pressure on South Florida’s offense to at least have some success against Miami. That might be possible, given what the Bulls have done on the ground this season. They are averaging 268.7 rushing yards, putting up 369 last week against Southern Mississippi.

Three South Florida players, running backs Kelley Joiner, Nay’Quan Wright and quarterback Byrum Brown, have 30 rushing attempts this season: The three have been the bulk of the Bulls’ ground attack, averaging over five yards per carry and combining for eight rushing touchdowns.

It might be hard for South Florida’s running game to build up steam against Miami, which allows 65.7 rushing yards per game. However, with the rushing talent on the Bulls roster, they should be able to help the Hurricanes hit the over in this game for college football picks.

Pick: Under 65

 

Questions Of The Day

Does South Florida have a chance in this game against Miami?


Last week, Miami proved it was one of the top teams in the nation, and it should be able to keep that momentum against South Florida.

Is there a player to keep an eye on for prop betting in this game?


Cam Ward has emerged as an early Heisman candidate and should be in for another big game against South Florida

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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