Michigan St., Ga. Tech Top NCAAF Upset Betting Picks
- Michigan State has the tools to go on the road – as a 7-point underdog in the college football odds – to defeat Boston College on Saturday.
- Wide receiver Nick Marsh is averaging 21.1 yards per catch for Michigan State in the first three games.
- Get the latest betting odds and NCAA football predictions ahead.
The Michigan State Spartans could be a value moneyline pick for your college football parlays when they visit the improving Boston College Eagles on Saturday for a non-conference matchup.
The Spartans are off to a 3-0 start, including a win at Maryland to open their Big Ten season, despite turning the ball over six times and leading the league with 33 penalties overall. The positives have just outweighed the negatives thus far.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles threw for 363 yards and three TDs with three interceptions versus Maryland. Meanwhile, the Michigan State defense has four interceptions, including Charles Brantley’s school-record 100-yard return for a score last week against Prairie View.
Boston College is coming off a strong effort in a 27-21 loss at then-No. 6 Missouri last week and may come home a little drained. The Eagles beat Florida State in their opener and have shown plenty of progress, but may be due for a step back.
If Michigan State can clean up some of its mistakes, it could be a good bet at the sportsbook this week.
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Why Michigan State is Best Upset Pick Week 4
1. Defense Key for Underdog Spartans
Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos has shown a lot of improvement this season, but he is a much more efficient player with a productive ground attack.
The Eagles had 263 rushing yards against Florida State in the 28-13 victory, but managed just 49 (1.9 per carry) despite having an early lead at Missouri. Michigan State is 23rd in the nation in rushing defense (78.3 yards per game).
The Spartans also have 11 sacks in the early going and Brantley boasts two interceptions, including his historic return in the 40-0 win last week.
.@cbrantley22 TAKES IT BACK 100 YARDS
📺 BTN pic.twitter.com/ToG2pOayqQ
— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) September 14, 2024
Kay’ron Lynch-Adams (210 yards) and Nate Carter (198) give Michigan State two threats on the ground and Nick Marsh has 11 receptions for 232 yards (21.1 per), including a key 77-yard TD strike from Chiles versus Maryland.
Stopping the run and containing the elusive Castellanos is key for Michigan State Spartans, but discipline may be the most important issue for your bet online. The Spartans rank 132nd out of 133 FBS teams in penalties and yards penalized per game.
2. Can Boston College Rebound?
The BC Eagles jumped out to a 14-3 lead at Missouri, but surrendered 14 points in the final five minutes of the second quarter and did not score again until late in the fourth.
Castellanos threw for three TDs (nine on season), but also registered his first two interceptions of the campaign. The junior had 15 TD strikes and 14 interceptions in 2023 as BC finished 7-6 with a Fenway Bowl victory over SMU.
Asked Bill O’Brien about his message to Thomas Castellanos afterward: “We’re lucky to have Tommy. We’re in the game because of Tommy and some of those plays that he made. He knows he’s got to execute better, make better decisions, more consistent decisions, and he’ll do that.” pic.twitter.com/zxB55Wlxzr
— Trevor Hass (@TrevorHass) September 14, 2024
Treshaun Ward is the player to stop for Michigan State. Ward has rushed for a team-best 153 yards and owns five receptions for 105 yards with two TDs through the air.
The key for the Boston College Eagles will be containing the Spartans’ improving offense. Boston College has managed just five sacks overall, but did show some character by giving itself a chance after falling behind 13 points at Missouri.
It’s a tough call, but we think BC may be beatable this particular week.
3. Georgia Tech Primed for Another Upset?
If you had Georgia Tech in your college football picks Week 1 against Florida State, why not come back with them again?
The Yellow Jackets (3-1) hit a roadblock at Syracuse in a 31-28 loss two weeks ago, but they are both a solid pick +10 ½ points and a sneaky good moneyline selection at Louisville. The Cardinals (2-0) have not been tested in wins over Austin Peay and Jacksonville State.
Just another day in the office for @haynes_king10 💼
Haynes King went 17-22 for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Yellow Jacket’s win over VMI@GeorgiaTechFB | @GTAthletics | #StingEm 🐝| @drpepper pic.twitter.com/biR1WbirBE
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 14, 2024
If you’re looking for other upset possibilities, BYU (+7) could give Kansas State a game, James Madison (+10 ½) should scare North Carolina and Illinois (+9 1/2) is not outclassed against Nebraska. We also like Rutgers (+3 ½) at Virginia Tech.
The wild value pick of the weekend could be South Florida. The Bulls are a 16 1/2-point underdog against No. 8 Miami (Fla) and could stay in it if the Hurricanes come out a bit flat. USF gave Alabama all it could handle two weeks ago.
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Need More Knowledge? Take a Look at Other CFB Betting Articles
- Bet Boston College, Fade FSU in ACC Betting 9/14
- NCAAF Upset of the Week: Illinois Prime Pick vs Kansas
Questions Of The Day
How many wins did Michigan State record in 2023?
Four. The Spartans had five wins in 2022 and just four last year, causing Jonathan Smith to be hired to replace Mel Tucker as coach.
When was the last time the teams met?
In 2007. Boston College won 24-21 at home, but Michigan State was a 5-point underdog.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
