Michigan State vs Illinois Picks: Illini ATS Best Bet 11/16

Two unpredictable teams in the Big Ten clash on Saturday as the Illinois Fighting Illini host the Michigan State Spartans. Both teams are on two-game losing streaks in conference play and coming off bye weeks heading into Saturday’s contest.

Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) has lost five of six after a 3-0 start to the season following its latest loss, 47-10 to Indiana at home. Illinois (6-3, 3-3) jumped out to a 4-0 start to the 2024 campaign but has dropped three of five, including a home loss to Minnesota two weeks ago.

Illinois is a three-point favorite over Michigan State on Saturday. The Spartans are listed at +134 to come away with the straight-up win on the moneyline while Illinois is -155 to win outright. The college football odds have listed the over/under for the game at 47½ points.

Michigan State vs Illinois Game Information

• Game: Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) vs Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
• Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, 2:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
• Michigan State vs Illinois Live Stream: FS1

2 Bets to Make On Michigan State vs Illinois

1. Can Spartans Pull Out a Close One?

Outside of the team’s losses to opponents that are currently in the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings, Michigan State has had some close losses, falling by three at Boston College and by seven at Michigan. The Spartans are young, including quarterback Aidan Chiles, so they need to learn to pull out close games.

Chiles has a ton of talent, but he shows his lack of experience with bad decisions. He threw two interceptions against Indiana, giving him 11 for the season, which is one off the most in the nation. He has thrown for 1,850 yards and eight touchdowns, as well as making some dynamic runs when pressured, but the mistakes pile up quickly at times.

Getting the running game going will be a key for the Spartans in this game, taking some pressure off of Chiles to make big plays. The running back duo of Nate Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams combined for 135 yards in a win over Iowa and 153 in a narrow loss to Michigan, but they had just 16 in the blowout setback vs Indiana.

Per Michigan State vs Illinois stats, the Fighting Illini give up the fourth-most yards per game on the ground in the Big Ten, allowing 154.0. If Carter and Lynch-Adams can get going, Michigan State could get its offense rolling, allowing Chiles to make some of the exciting plays he can.

But can the Spartans’ defense, which allows 24.1 points and 345.8 total yards per game, keep Michigan State in this game long enough for the running game to remain an option?

Unfortunately for the Spartans, we don’t see it, with Illinois pulling out a close win that covers the spread. Bet on the host Illini to win by more than three in NCAAF predictions.

Bet On Illinois (-3) vs Michigan State

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2. Struggling Defenses Pushes Total Over

The Illini have a potent offense as well and Michigan State isn’t exactly stout on the defensive side of the ball. We can see this game finishing in the 20s for both teams and the over being the online bet to make.

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been good this season, at least when he’s not having to pick himself up off the turf. The junior has been sacked 27 times this season, including 20 over the last five contests. A win over Michigan, in which he only attempted 18 passes, is the only time over those last five games that Altmyer hasn’t gone down at least three times.

Minnesota postgame: #Illini QB Luke Altmyer on battling adversity during the season 🏈

FULL VIDEO: https://t.co/KxCY2ay6U1 pic.twitter.com/rKGBB6DPA6

— Illini Inquirer (@IlliniOn247) November 4, 2024

Fortunately for Altmyer, he’s playing against a Spartans defense that has just 15 sacks on the season, with the last one coming in the team’s fourth game vs Boston College. Altmyer should have plenty of time to find his receivers and get back on track after a couple of rough games passing the ball.

We foresee Altmyer and Chiles battling it out with some big plays in the passing game. Neither defense has stepped up well recently, so points won’t be hard to come by.

Look for a high-scoring affair, meaning one of your college football picks should be on the over 47½ points.

Bet on Michigan State vs Illinois Over 47½ (-110)

Question of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.