Minnesota vs Wisconsin NCAAF Picks: Should You Bet on an Upset in Madison? Nov 29

It’s the latest chapter to college football’s oldest rivalry. The Minnesota Golden Gophers visit the Wisconsin Badgers with the latter slightly favored per the NCAAF odds. But we can take these lines and toss them out as this matchup has consistently been close with Wisconsin having a slight lead, all-time at 63-62-8. The last time these teams were in Madison, we saw an upset. And that’s the direction we’re going.

Minnesota vs Wisconsin Game Information

• Game: Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5, 4-4 B1G) vs Wisconsin Badgers (5-6, 3-5)
• Date/Time: Friday, Nov. 29, 12:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
• Minnesota vs Wisconsin Live Stream: CBS

Check out Minnesota vs Wisconsin betting trends here.

2 Best NCAAF Picks for Minnesota vs Wisconsin

1. Minnesota ML Pick (+110)

The Gophers can stick it to their historic rival yet again. Minnesota is not only 6-2 against the spread (ATS) facing Big Ten opponents but has covered in four of its last six games against Wisconsin. All of these were as underdogs and three of the four ATS wins came on the road. The visitors also have an edge at quarterback, which is why they’re the bet online.

Max Brosmer finds Jameson Geers for SIX!

We are all tied in Minneapolis.

📺 NBC and Peacock pic.twitter.com/49wVcoD3o1

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 22, 2024

Minnesota also has the better defense, which is how it’s managed to be competitive against Top-25 opponents. The Gophers upset Illinois and USC and covered against Penn State and Michigan. That’s 4-0 ATS against ranked competition. In comparison, Wisconsin went 0-4 and 1-3 ATS against similar opponents. Fair play, the Badgers gave the top-ranked Ducks a run for their money. But Wisconsin lost to Penn State and USC who Minnesota beat and almost beat.

The Badgers do have one of the best passing defenses albeit with star safety Hunter Wohler banged up. On offense, Wisconsin is also short of wide receiver Will Pauling. That’s just the tip of their NCAAF injury report as the home team will be more short-handed than the visitors.

Gophers quarterback Max Brosmer can have a prolific game with Wisconsin’s passing defense compromised. The former FCS star’s game has translated smoothly in the FBS and he’s committed to play in whatever Bowl game Minnesota plays. That’s plenty of motivation for him to lead his team to a win here.

Given all that, we’d be hard-pressed to make Wisconsin our NCAA football prediction. It’s also lost four straight games with three by double figures. While Minnesota has dropped two in a row, the Gophers’ last three losses were all within a touchdown. Betting the spread for Minnesota as +2 is a solid play but we’ll go for the outright upset.

Bet this Minnesota vs Wisconsin Pick: Golden Gophers ML (+110)

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2. This Rivalry Tends to Produce Low Totals, Bet Under 43

A Minnesota-Wisconsin game is almost always like a playoff or Bowl game. That’s partly why five of their last seven games have gone under the total. If we factor in Wisconsin’s home advantage, nine of its last 12 at Camp Randall have trended similarly. We don’t see why we should go against this even with the line only at 43.

Minnesota only allows 17.7 points and 4.81 yards per play. The Gophers have held teams like USC and Illinois under 20 points. Only Iowa has scored 30+ against them. Led by Koi Perich, the Gophers have been one of the best at forcing turnovers in the nation.

Koi Perich. Koi Wonder.

A name to know for @GopherFootball. True freshman. pic.twitter.com/sX4NU4YAXX

— Connor Onion (@ConnorOnion) October 27, 2024

Wisconsin’s defense isn’t much worse. While giving up 44 to Nebraska and Iowa, the Badgers also held Oregon to 13 points. And Minnesota is not the type of team to light up NCAAF scores.

The Gophers average 26.7 points but have scored over 25 points just once in their last eight games. It came against Maryland and its collapsing defense. Otherwise, Minnesota has also only averaged 18.8 points in its last five meetings with Wisconsin. We’re betting on this one to be a low-scoring affair.

Bet This NCAAF Pick: Minnesota, Wisconsin Under 43

Questions of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.