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Mississippi State vs Auburn NCAAF Betting: Two SEC Teams With Terrible Conference Records

· Oct 26 - 3 minutes read

Following back-to-back wins against Western Michigan and Arkansas, the Mississippi State Bulldogs make for tempting underdogs against the Auburn Tigers in Week 9. The Bulldogs make our list of best college football bets on Saturday due to a month of failures for Auburn with four straight losses.

I won’t deny that Auburn’s recent opponents are better than Mississippi State, but that doesn’t change the fact that these teams are on divergent paths, and losing four games in a row is not something most teams can just “shake off.”

Mississippi State vs Auburn NCAAF Betting: Two SEC Teams With Terrible Conference Records

I’m not banking on an outright victory, but I think it’s well within the Bulldogs’ capabilities to keep this game close.

Why I’m Fading Tigers ATS

The NCAA football betting lines list the spread for this game at 6½ points in favor of Auburn, but I don’t feel as confident as the sportsbook in their ability to close out this game with a dominant win.

First, the Tigers are just 1-3 ATS against the SEC and 2-5 overall against the college football spread. They cover 50% of the time as home favorites but are 2-0 outright.

The Bulldogs also match up well against the Tigers with a strong rushing defense to combat Auburn’s rushing attempts. The Tigers rank 10th in the nation in rushing attempts, with 61.92% of their plays coming on the ground. It’s a strategy that hasn’t worked well in weeks past and is a risky gambit on Saturday against Mississippi State’s solid run defense.

Are the Mississippi State Bulldogs refusing to be the worst team in the SEC West?? pic.twitter.com/YnEhCXflCY

— Harold L. Stokes #HLSBets football gambling mode (@HaroldLStokes) October 21, 2023

The Bulldogs rank 36th in opponent yards per rush (3.6) and 49th in opponent rushing yards per game (135). Not great, but the defense is good enough to make life difficult for the Tigers’ offense, which relies so much on RB Jarquez Hunter and QB Payton Thorne to put in work on the ground.

I’m tempted to take the Bulldogs to cover this game, but the clever play here is for this game to go Under the College Football betting total.

Auburn will probably nab their first SEC win, but their offense will struggle and leave this total under the projected final of 43½ at BetUS Sportsbook.

Bet On Mississippi State vs Auburn