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Navy vs Central Florida Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks

Navy (3-7, 3-4 in AAC) stunned No. 20 Central Florida (8-2, 5-1) last season, and will try to do it again this time around. This late Saturday morning contest features some of the best rushing offenses in the American Athletic Conference. Meanwhile, UCF has a chance to take another step towards a spot in the conference title game.

Navy lost its second straight game last out, 35-32 to Notre Dame. Navy didn’t get the memo until the second half, but couldn’t complete the comeback. The Knights beat Tulane, 38-31, on the road, taking down a team which had been undefeated in conference play.

Daba Fofana #45 of the Navy Midshipmen rushes the ball
Daba Fofana #45 - Greg Fiume / Getty Images North America / Getty Images via AFP

Let’s check the latest college football odds, stats, injury reports, and college football lines for Navy vs Central Florida. We’ve plenty of NCAA football odds for you to consider.

Four-Quarter Middies?

So last week against Notre Dame, Navy was nearly able to complete an improbable comeback. With just over a minute remaining, the Midshipmen scored a touchdown, then had a successful two-point conversion to bring them within a field goal.

This after being down, 35-13, at the half. However, the Midshipmen defense buckled down in the second half, holding the Fighting Irish scoreless while forcing a turnover. The pass rush also finally arrived, five sacks in the final two quarters.

Rushing, not surprisingly, carried the Midshipmen’s offense, 255 yards (5½ yards per carry). Daba Fofana led with 133 yards (one touchdown).

However, both Naval Academy touchdowns in the second half were through the air, with quarterback Xavier Arline completing his first passing touchdown of the season. Navy abandoned much of its rushing game trying to get out of that aforementioned hole.

UCF After AAC Title

So, last week’s 38-31 win at Tulane was huge, as Central Florida is now in a three-way atop the conference with the Green Wave and Cincinnati. However, the Knights have tiebreaking wins over Tulane and Cincy. UCF’s final two opponents have a combined three wins this season.

Offense has been the catalyst of much of the Knights’ success, 497.7 yards per game (highest in the conference), along with 35.9 points (third in AAC). Much of it had been via the ground game (249½ yards per game), but it’s been balanced. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has 21 touchdowns (2,015 passing yards), while also leading the team with 708 rush yards.

It’s been a three-headed monster in the run game with Plumlee as well as R.J. Harvey and Isaiah Bowser. Those backs each have over 500 yards and a combined 26 touchdowns. Against Tulane, the “monster” had 313 of the team’s 336 rushing yards (four touchdowns).

In last season’s home game, Navy was a surprising 34-30 winner over UCF. The schools have only played three times, with the Knights winning the other two games.

  • Game: Navy (3-7, 3-4 in AAC) vs Central Florida (8-2, 5-1)
  • Date: Saturday, Nov. 19th, 11:00 a.m. ET
  • Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
  • Navy vs Central Florida Live Stream: ESPN

This game is intriguing because both Navy and Central Florida want to establish the run game as quickly as possible. However, they also have two of the best run defenses, with the Midshipmen allowing 85.8 per game, the Knights 124½.

This might come down to which team can make plays through the air, and the Knights have a lot more faith in their quarterback to do just that. Regardless, the 16½ point spread is too large, considering what Navy did last week.

Navy is listed at +550 in our NCAAF Vegas lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Navy, you have a chance to win $550. Central Florida is -800, offering a chance to win $12.50 on a $100 wager.

The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives the Navy a 15.38% chance to win, with Central Florida at 88.89%

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