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NCAAF Betting Rewind/Lookahead: High Stakes in Week 13
Michigan-Ohio State to Dominate the Headlines
Things were a little interesting for undefeated Washington and Michigan but they remained in the national championship picture in hard-earned wins in Week 12. While North Carolina was the only ranked team to fall to an unranked foe, ranked teams went 12-10 against the college football betting lines.
Michigan and Georgia currently have the best odds of winning the national championship with Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State and Washington in contention as well. Florida State did suffer a loss when quarterback Jordan Travis was knocked out of a win over North Alabama.
With James Madison losing to Appalachian State, there are just six undefeated teams left and five of them (Michigan and Ohio State, Washington, Florida State and Georgia) hail from the Power-5 conferences.
More than just a few eyes will be on this weekend’s clash between 11-0 Ohio State and Michigan teams, with the winner clinching a spot in the Big Ten title game. The Las Vegas college football odds currently have Michigan as a 3½-point favorite.
The biggest shocker of the week was Auburn, a 25-point favorite, falling at home to New Mexico State 31-10. New Mexico, a 22-point underdog, returned home from Fresno State with the 25-17 win. Appalachian State was a 10-point underdog before taking down James Madison 26-23.
Georgia remained No. 1 in both national polls with the Bulldogs receiving 122 of 125 first-place votes. Ohio State jumped rival Michigan to move into the No. 2 spot in both the Associated Press and American Football Coaches Association poll. The only other change among the top nine spots in the AP poll was Washington moving ahead of Florida State, likely due to the injury to Travis. Oregon State dropped from 10th to 15th in the AP poll after falling to Washington.
When looking at the college football picks this week, the Ohio State-Michigan and Oregon State-Oregon are the only Week 13 matchups between teams ranked in the Top 25 in the Associated Press poll.
Along with Ohio State and Oregon State, Iowa is the only ranked team currently listed as an underdog right now.
Georgia moved from +250 to +225 in odds of winning the national title. Michigan (+275), Ohio State (+550), Alabama (+650), Oregon (+650), Ohio State (+800) and Washington (+1200) are the next closest competitors according to the college football championship odds. Florida State’s championship odds went from +900 to +3300 following the injury to Travis.
Let’s Get Ready to Rumble
Another year and a similar script in the Big Ten.
Iowa has already clinched the Big Ten West Division title and the Hawkeyes are awaiting the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan matchup in the Big Ten Championship Game.
In case you haven’t heard, 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘎𝘢𝘮𝘦 is Saturday. 😏
Here’s one highlight from each of the last 10 Michigan-Ohio State matchups. ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/csZ13g0nDB
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 19, 2023
Barring a huge upset in the Big Ten title game, the winner between the Buckeyes and Wolverines will also secure one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff field.
The big question is whether the Big Ten will get two teams in the CFP field for the second year in a row.
Louisville and Florida State have already punched their ticket to the ACC Championship Game. It will be Georgia and Alabama meeting for the SEC title for the fourth time. Georgia could probably still get into the CFP field even with a close loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide need to beat Auburn this week, defeat Georgia, and hope that will be enough.
Chaos in the Big 12
It is not a good sign when the tiebreaking policies are being called into question going into the final week of the regular season. That is what is happening in the Big 12.
Texas is sitting alone in first place with a 7-1 record in conference play while Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are all just a game back.
None of the top four teams face each other in Week 13 and that only adds to the drama.
Texas plays host to Texas Tech, Oklahoma is at home versus 2022 national finalist Texas Christian, Oklahoma State faces Brigham Young at home and Kansas State also has some home cooking at the expense of Iowa State.
Since not every team faces each other, things could get complicated.
If Texas and Oklahoma State win, the Longhorns and Cowboys will play in the Big 12 Championship Game. If that doesn’t happen, stay tuned.
If Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State all lose while Iowa State, Texas Tech and West Virginia all win, there could be a six-way tie for second place.
In the Pac-12, Washington will play in the Pac-12 title game for the first time since 2018. Oregon would be the opponent with a win over Oregon State. A win by Oregon State combined with Arizona topping rival Arizona State would send Arizona into its first Pac-12 title game since 2014.
The good news is that the Oregon-Oregon State game is on Friday so Arizona will know what is at stake before the Wildcats take the field.
A Look at the Group of Five
Even before its loss to Appalachian State, James Madison’s bid to win the Sun Belt title ended when the NCAA denied the appeal to waive the waiting period for the Dukes to be eligible for the Sun Belt championship contest as well as the Group of Five slot in the New Year’s Six bowl games.
With James Madison out of the picture, Tulane, Liberty and Toledo are the front-runners to secure that spot.
Tulane joins Southern Methodist and UTSA with perfect records in American Athletic Conference play.
With Tulane and UTSA playing each other, the winner will be in the American Athletic Conference game. SMU is a 20-point favorite according to our sportsbook to beat Navy and that would secure a spot in the game for the Mustangs.
Liberty will face New Mexico State in the Conference USA title game on Dec. 1 regardless of what happens this weekend.
It will be Toledo meeting Miami (Ohio) in the Mid-American Conference championship matchup.
Tulane (+210) came into the season as the favorite to win the American Athletic Conference title. Liberty (+250) trailed only Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title odds while Air Force (+380) was behind Boise State and Fresno State in the Mountain West odds when the season began.
NCAAF Week 12 Bad Beats
A seemingly meaningless game between Indiana and Michigan State had the attention of those who bet online.
Indiana was just over a minute from covering against Michigan State before the Spartans converted on fourth down and scored with 1:19 left.
The Hoosiers missed the game-tying field goal with two seconds left to give the Spartans the late cover as a 3½-point underdog and outright win. If the field goal had been good, the game would have gone over the 47-point total.
SMU was favored by 9½ points against Memphis and led 38-28 before giving up a touchdown with 53 seconds to go.
Things got interesting when Louisville, which ranged from a 1-point favorite to a 1-point underdog, led Miami by seven points before allowing a late pass inside the 10-yard-line. The Cardinals survived with the 38-31 win.
A UMass touchdown pass with 56 seconds left gave the Minutemen a back-door cover as Liberty won 49-25 when listed by the Las Vegas odds as a 25-point favorite.
On the Move
There was some line movement in the Big Ten with Michigan State going from a 5½-point underdog to a 2½-point down. The Spartans won the game outright by a 24-21 score.
Michigan moved from a 21½-point favorite to being favored by 17½ versus Maryland. It didn’t matter as the Terrapins covered in a 31-24 loss.
California took care of business with a 27-15 win over Stanford. The line closed with the Bears favored by seven points after sitting at 3½ earlier in the week.
In another Pac-12 clash, two-time defending Pac-12 champion Utah was originally a 1½-point favorite before Arizona went off as the 2½-point favorite. It looks like Arizona wasn’t given enough credit with the Wildcats rolling to a 42-18 win.
Questions Of The Day
How can hindsight bias lead us to make realistic expectations for future games?
Going into the final game of the regular season, any impact of results from recent seasons should not be factored into this week’s games.
How does hindsight bias affect our evaluation of past betting decisions?
With the struggles by Southern California, Utah, and Clemson, among others, it is clear that what happened in the last season or two has little impact on where the teams stand right now.
