Denver Nuggets
NCAAF Betting Rewind/Lookahead: Ranked Teams Flunk Odds
Penn State Fails to Deliver Once Again
Six ranked teams took a tumble in Week 10 while Florida State, North Carolina and Texas were fortunate not to be among the teams suffering upset losses. Ranked teams went 11-12 against the college football betting lines.
Michigan and Georgia currently have the best odds of winning the national championship with Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State and Washington in contention as well. Penn State once again failed to deliver in a big game as the Nittany Lions are out of the Big Ten title picture.
Five of the five remaining undefeated Football Bowl Subdivision teams hail from the Power-5 conferences. The Big Ten leads the way with two teams with perfect records – Michigan and Ohio State are set to meet on Nov. 25.
Arizona State, a 14-point underdog, upset UCLA 17-7. Northwestern was a 12½-point underdog when it handed Wisconsin a 24-10 loss
In the national polls, the top eight teams remain the same in the Associated Press and American Football Coaches Association polls with Georgia continuing to lead Michigan and Ohio State.
When looking at the college football picks this week, there are four Week 11 matchups between teams ranked in the Top 25 in the Associated Press poll.
Georgia looks to remain undefeated with a game at Tennessee, Utah heads to face Arizona, Kansas and Kansas State will square off while Washington visits Oregon State in a key Pac-12 game.
Michigan and Georgia are tied at +250 in the odds of winning the national title. Alabama (+600), Ohio State (+800), Oregon (+800), Florida State (+900) and Washington (+1200) are the next closest competitors according to the college football championship odds.
Have a Day, Jayden
The list of major college players who have thrown for 350 yards and rushed for at least 200 yards in the same game is a pretty short one. Actually, it is a list of one.
LSU’s Jayden Daniels became the first player to accomplish that feat as he was 17-of-26 passing for 372 yards to go with three touchdown passes and no interceptions while running for 234 yards and two more scores in a 52-35 win over Florida.
WATCH: Jayden Daniels hits the Heisman pose after a long touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr.
See more LSU/Florida highlights here: https://t.co/v0adPWWknj pic.twitter.com/ObTyrTnHSR
— WBRZ News (@WBRZ) November 12, 2023
Daniels leads all Football Bowl Subdivision players with an average of 408 yards of total offense per game. He is accounting for more yards per game than 83 FBS teams this season.
He still has some work to do in the Heisman Trophy race despite a game to top all games.
SEC Title Game Matchup All Set
Surprise, surprise, surprise: Alabama and Georgia will play for the SEC championship.
This will be the fourth time that Alabama and Georgia have played for the SEC championship. The last time it happened came in 2021, with Alabama winning 41-24.
It is the 10th year in a row that either Alabama or Georgia will be in the SEC Championship Game.
Georgia leads Missouri by two games in the SEC East standings with the only conference game remaining coming against Tennessee on Saturday.
Alabama has a two-game lead on Ole Miss and LSU in the SEC West. The Crimson Tide play a non-conference game against Chattanooga this weekend before heading to Auburn in the regular-season finale.
In the ACC, Florida State has punched its ticket to the title game. Louisville is leading North Carolina, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech for the second spot.
Texas leads the Big 12 standings by a game against Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Iowa State plays Texas on Saturday so that could either bring some clarity or create a little chaos.
Iowa leads the Big Ten West Division by two games over Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin.
The Big Ten East Division will once again be determined by the regular-season finale between Michigan and Ohio State.
In the Pac-12, it is looking more and more like a Washington-Oregon matchup. Arizona and Oregon State are each a game in back of second-place Oregon.
Washington and Oregon State meet on Saturday.
A Look at the Group of Five
Toledo has secured a spot in the Mid-American Conference game, with Miami (Ohio) currently favored to join the Rockets in that game.
In the Mountain West, Air Force suffered its first conference loss of the season to Hawaii and is tied with UNLV for first place. Boise State, Fresno State and San Jose State are all a game back.
Troy is in the Sun Belt title game on Dec. 2. The biggest question is whether James Madison will be joining them.
The Dukes are still in the transition phase going from the Football Championship Subdivision level to becoming an FBS program. The Sun Belt has said that James Madison will not be eligible for the Sun Belt title game but there has been some support for that to change.
If James Madison is prohibited from playing for the conference title, Coastal Carolina would get there by winning out.
Things are really interesting in the American Athletic Conference, with Tulane, Southern Methodist and UTSA all 6-0 in conference play while Memphis is 5-1.
SMU and Memphis meet on Saturday while UTSA and Tulane are set to play in Week 13.
Tulane (+210) came into the season as the favorite to win the American Athletic Conference title. Liberty (+250) trailed only Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title odds while Air Force (+380) was behind Boise State and Fresno State in the Mountain West odds when the season began.
NCAAF Week 11 Bad Beats
It was a pretty quiet week when it came to bad beats, but here’s a look at some late-game plays that had the attention of those who bet online.
Illinois was less than a minute away from covering as 4½-point favorites before Indiana scored and added a two-point conversion pass to force overtime.Illinois won the game on John Paddock’s fourth touchdown pass in overtime for Illinois, but Indiana did manage to cover.
A field goal by Maryland’s Jack Howes on the final play of the game gave the Terrapins the 13-10 win against Nebraska, with Maryland covering as 2½-point favorites.
While no points were scored in the fourth quarter, the foolish play by Washington linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala dropping the ball at the 1-yard line on what looked to be a defensive touchdown cost some bettors. Washington would have covered as nine-point favorites had Tuputala scored the touchdown.
Two missed extra points in the fourth quarter, one by each team, resulted in South Carolina’s 47-6 win over Vanderbilt finishing just under the 53.5-point total.
On the Move
It was a little quirky in the Week 10 line moves with three teams going from being an underdog to the favorite in a span of a week.
Virginia Tech was a 1½-point underdog before closing as a 2½-point favorite. The Hokies went on the road and rolled to the 48-22 victory over Boston College.
Tennessee originally was listed by the sportsbook as a 1½-point underdog before going off as the 2½-point favorite versus Missouri. Tennessee proved to be no match for the Tigers in a 36-7 loss.
Syracuse opened as 2½-point underdogs against Pittsburgh before winning 28-13 as 3½-point underdogs at home.
Some other notable line moves came with Baylor going from +17½ to +21½. It didn’t matter either way with Kansas State cruising to a 59-25 win.
Things got interesting in the Ohio State-Michigan State game when the line went from +29½ to +32½. Ohio State barely covered with the 38-3 win.
There was a six-point move in the Arizona State-UCLA game with the Sun Devils pulling off the 17-7 upset as a 14½-point underdog.
Questions Of The Day
What is one of the most common mistakes bettors make when analyzing NCAAF betting?
Not looking at this season’s trends and results and simply going with big-name programs to take care of business can be a costly mistake.
