NCAAF Betting Rewind/Lookahead: Ranked Teams Not Justifying Odds

Ranked teams went 13-12 against the college football sportsbook on Saturday.

In a weekend of upsets and near upsets, Army, a 19-point underdog, led the way with a 23-3 win over Air Force while Stanford, a 14-point underdog, topped Washington State.

The top nine teams remained the same in the Associated Press Top 25 poll. In the American Football Coaches Association poll, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Texas switched spots.

There are four Week 11 games between teams in the top 25 in the two national polls, headlined by the Michigan-Penn State and Ole Miss-Georgia matchups.

Michigan and Georgia are tied at +250 in the odds of winning the national title. Florida State (+600), Ohio State (+700), Alabama (+700), Oregon (+1000) and Washington are the next-closest competitors according to the college football championship odds.

Starting Making Some Plans

Florida State is the first team from the Power-5 conferences to secure a spot in the conference title game.

Louisville is currently alone in second in the ACC standings and has conference games left against Virginia and Miami. If the Cardinals stumble, things will get interesting with Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech all having two losses in ACC play.

The Virginia Tech-Boston College and Duke-North Carolina matchups in Week 11 could be viewed as elimination games in the race for the second spot in the ACC Championship Game.

With Miami’s up-and-down 2023 campaign, this weekend’s matchup with Florida State is flying a bit under the radar compared to how the showdowns between the Hurricanes and Seminoles used to impact the national championship picture.

Florida State clinches a spot in the ACC Championship for the first time since 2014 🍢 pic.twitter.com/Ocw9tVkpvY

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) November 4, 2023

Texas and Oklahoma State currently are tied atop the Big 12 standings with Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and West Virginia just a game back. The list of Big 12 title game contenders will be narrowed following Week 11 with West Virginia traveling to meet Oklahoma.

Penn State can make things interesting in the Big Ten East Division with a win over Michigan. If the Nittany Lions come up short in another big game, it will come down to the regular-season finale to determine the East Division representative in the Big Ten title game.

In the West Division, Iowa leads Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern by a game. Iowa ends the regular season with a game at Nebraska and a Week 11 matchup with Rutgers that could be interesting.

Washington and Oregon could be on a collision course for a rematch in the Pac-12 title game. Both teams still have two games remaining versus ranked teams. If the Huskies and Ducks take care of business, the Pac-12 title game will likely be a play-in contest to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff field. It would be the first time since 2016 that a Pac-12 squad will be among the final four teams vying for a national title.

In the SEC, it is looking like Alabama and Georgia will play for the conference title for the third time in the last six years.

Georgia has a two-game lead on Missouri and Tennessee in the SEC East with two conference games remaining. If the Bulldogs defeat Ole Miss on Saturday, the Bulldogs will be in the SEC Championship Game for the sixth time in the last seven years. If Georgia wins and Tennessee tops Missouri, a Week 12 showdown between Georgia and Tennessee will determine the division champion.

Alabama leads Ole Miss by a game in the SEC West. However, the Crimson Tide own a win over the Rebels so Alabama would have to drop its final two conference games for Ole Miss to have a chance to punch a ticket into the SEC title game.

Breaking Down the ATS Numbers

There is plenty of attention being paid to the weekly College Football Playoff standings, and understandably so with the race for the four CFP spots heating up.

Since this is a betting site, we are taking a different look at the numbers.

If the field was determined by the numbers against the college football betting lines, the top four teams from the Power-5 conferences would be Arizona, Oregon, Penn State and either Kansas State, Rutgers or Ole Miss.

If you went by teams needing to win one of the Power-5 conferences to secure a CFP spot, it would be Arizona or Oregon taking one spot as well as Penn State being in the field along with Kansas State and Ole Miss.

When it comes to top teams underperforming against the spread, USC (2-8 ATS) and Georgia (2-6-1) would lead the way.

Air Force Falcons Get Wings Clipped

There will not be a Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff field. However, one of those teams is guaranteed to get a spot in one of the New Year’s Six bowl games.

Air Force came in at No. 17 in both national polls a week ago. However, the Falcons fell out of the top 25 after losing to Army.

No. 20 Tulane and No. 21 James Madison are the highest-ranked Group of Five teams in the national polls. However, the Sun Belt Conference is not allowing the undefeated Dukes to be a part of the postseason party.

Liberty out of Conference USA is 25th in the Associated Press poll while the Mountain West’s Fresno State is 25th in the American Football Coaches Association poll.

Air Force, Toledo and Troy are all hanging around as well.

Tulane (+210) came into the season as the favorite to win the American Athletic Conference title according to the Las Vegas odds. Liberty (+250) trailed only Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title odds while Air Force (+380) was behind Boise State and Fresno State in the Mountain West odds when the season began.

NCAAF Week 10 Bad Beats

Michigan looked good to cover as 31-point favorites versus visiting Purdue before the Boilermakers covered with a touchdown with 18 seconds left to play to make the final score 41-13.

UTEP also came through with a back-door cover thanks to a field goal with 57 seconds left in the 21-13 loss to Western Kentucky, the 9½-point favorite, according to our sportsbook.

A Colorado TD pass with 1:42 remaining wasn’t enough to get the Buffaloes the win against Oregon State. It did result in Colorado covering as 13-point underdogs in the 26-19 loss.

Quinshon Judkins’ third touchdown run of the game with 1:40 left to play not only lifted Ole Miss to the 38-35 win over visiting Texas A&M, but also enabled the Rebels to cover as 2½-point favorites.

Florida, a 2½ to 3-point favorite, led by three points with less than a minute to play before Arkansas kicker Cam Little forced overtime with a 49-yard field goal. After Florida regained the three-point lead with a field goal in overtime, Arkansas won the game on a TD pass by KJ Jefferson.

The second of Marvin Harrison’s two fourth-quarter touchdowns came with 2:07 left to play as Ohio State topped Rutgers 35-16 to cover by the narrowest of margins as 18½-point favorites. It also sent the game over the 44½-point total.

Not only did Sam Pinckney’s scoring pass with 23 seconds left to play give Coastal Carolina the 28-24 win against Old Dominion, but Kade Hensley’s extra point sent the game over the 51½ total.

Memphis looked good to cover as 12-point favorites before South Florida scored with 5 seconds left to secure the back-door cover in a wild 59-50 affair won by Memphis.

Florida Atlantic, a 1½-point underdog, led by seven points with five minutes left. UAB won the game 45-42 on a field goal with just 3 seconds left to play.

Cincinnati’s touchdown with 87 seconds remaining was enough for the Bearcats to cover as 3½-point underdogs at home. However, a failed two-point conversion was the difference in Cincinnati’s 28-26 loss to UCF.

A 46-yard touchdown catch by Isaiah Williams with 50 seconds left gave Illinois, a 2½-point underdog, the 27-26 win over Minnesota.

Missouri was in position to pull within one score of Georgia before an interception with 1:36 left kept the game under the 55-point total.

Kansas twice converted on third downs on the final drive against Iowa State to prevent the Cyclones from having a chance to tie the game late and send the game over the 54-point total.

On the Move

There were some significant line movements in games involving Power-5 conference teams in Week 10.

Wake Forest went from being a 12½-point underdog to Duke being favored by seven points in a span of several hours on Thursday. It didn’t matter as Wake Forest covered in the 24-21 loss.

Boston College, which won 17-10 at Syracuse, began the week as a 4½-point underdog before going off as the 1½-point favorite.

Kansas State’s spirited upset bid fell short with Texas winning 33-30 in overtime. Things got pretty interesting when the line moved from +7 to +3½.

Arkansas, which had never won at Florida, went from a 6½-point underdog to a 2½-point dog. A 49-yard field goal by Cam Little in the final minute of the fourth quarter and KJ Jefferson’s second touchdown pass of the game gave Arkansas the 39-36 win.

In the Big Ten, Penn State had no trouble covering even as the line moved from 11½ to 7½ during the week while Wisconsin, which opened the week as a double-digit favorite against Indiana, not only failed to cover but suffered a stunning 20-14 loss.

Kansas and UCLA opened the week as 1½-point favorites and closed as 2½-point underdogs. Kansas fared better than UCLA as the Jayhawks won 28-21 over host Iowa State. UCLA’s Pac-12 title game hopes took a major hit with a 27-10 loss at Arizona.

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