NCAAF Betting Rewind/Lookahead: Washington Rises, USC Tumbles
It is time to catch our breath after a wild Week 7 in the college football world with Pac-12 powers Oregon and Southern California among eight ranked teams to lose. Not all the title contenders stumbled as No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Ohio State, and No. 4 Florida State all won by at least 17 points.
When looking at the college football best bets, Arizona, Houston, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh were the underdogs from the Power-5 conference to win outright. The Fighting Illini topped Maryland on a late field goal as the 13-point underdog and Stanford, also a 13-point underdog, rallied from 29 points down to top Colorado.
Eight of the 12 remaining undefeated Football Bowl Subdivision teams hail from the Power-5 conferences. The Big Ten leads the way with three each. Nevada and Sam Houston State are the only winless FBS teams.
When looking at the college football score predictions, there are four Week 8 matchups between teams ranked in the Top 25 in the Associated Press poll, led by the showdown between Penn State and Ohio State.
In the national polls, Washington jumped ahead of fellow unbeaten Oklahoma and Penn State teams to land at No. 5 with Notre Dame moving from 21st to 15th in the Associated Press poll. No. 18 USC fell eight spots and Louisville dropped from 14th to 21st. Washington State, Kansas, Kentucky and Miami dropped out of the Top 25.
Georgia (+250) leads the way in the odds of winning the national title. Michigan (+300), Florida State (+900) and Ohio State (+900) are the next closest competitors according to the college football odds.
USC Title Hopes Come Crashing Down
Southern California stumbled late last season as the Trojans were left out of the four-team College Football Playoff field. It didn’t take that long for that to happen this season.
The Trojans actually outgained Notre Dame 302-251 but the Fighting Irish scored 28 points off five USC turnovers to roll to the 48-20 win.
SOUTH BEND STAND UP‼️
NOTRE DAME HANDS USC THEIR FIRST LOSS OF THE SEASON 😳 pic.twitter.com/qVatTlIb3f
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 15, 2023
With reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams throwing three interceptions, his Heisman Trophy odds plummeted.
Speaking of the Heisman Trophy odds, the sportsbook lists Washington quarterback Michael Penix as the front-runner at -140 to win the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 302 yards in a 36-33 win over Oregon.
Penix tossed his fourth touchdown pass to Rome Odunze with 1:38 to lift the Huskies to the 36-33 win over Oregon in a clash of previously undefeated Pac-12 teams.
Avoid No. 1 Georgia as ATS Pick
Georgia might still be the No. 1 team in both national polls, but the two-time defending national champions have struggled to cover this season.
Georgia topped Vanderbilt 37-20 but came nowhere close to covering as 32-point favorites. Making matters worse, All-American tight end Brock Bowers went down with an ankle injury that will require surgery. He will likely miss multiple weeks.
Alabama had another close call before holding off Arkansas for the 24-21 win while Tennessee edged Texas A&M 20-13.
Georgia is just 1-5-1 against the college football betting lines this season. Tennessee is tied for the SEC lead with a 4-2 mark against the spread.
One Receipt To Throw Out
Colorado head coach Deion Sanders has boasted about keeping receipts when it comes to the coaches, media members and teams that he feels has disrespected the Buffaloes.
He might want to discard the receipt from one massive meltdown. Colorado led Stanford 29-0 at halftime before it all fell apart.
A field goal as time expired sent the game into overtime and after Shedeur Sanders threw an interception in the second overtime, Stanford’s Joshua Karty booted the game-winning field goal in 46-43 win.
Stanford and Colorado are now tied with Cal for ninth in the Pac-12 standings.
Big Ten Heavyweights Ready to Clash
There will be at least one fewer undefeated team by the end of the weekend with Penn State traveling to meet Ohio State.
The Nittany Lions rolled to a 63-0 win over UMass while the Buckeyes had no trouble dispatching of Purdue 47-4 with Kyle McCord tossing three touchdowns.
With Michigan overwhelming Indiana 52-7, there are three undefeated teams hailing from the Big Ten East Division.
Penn State leads the Big Ten in both total offense and total defense. However, Ohio State is currently listed as the four-point favorite.
Ohio State has topped Penn State in each of the last six seasons. However, the underdog Nittany Lions have covered against the Las Vegas odds in five of those matchups. Keep that in mind when it comes to the NCAA football picks and parlays.
Week 7 Bad Beats
There were some anxious moments for those who took part in college football live betting during Week 7.
It didn’t look good for those who took Houston to cover as three-point underdogs at home against West Virginia before the Cougars scored on a 48-yard TD pass on the last play of the game to pull off the improbable 41-39 win and one heck of a back-door cover.
Michigan State was looking good to cover as 3½-point underdogs at Rutgers before the Scarlet Knights scored 16 points in nine seconds during a 21-point fourth quarter that made those who bet online a little antsy. Rutgers did drive into Michigan State territory on the final drive of the game before running out the clock with three kneel-downs.
South Carolina, a one-point underdog at home, led Florida by three points with less than a minute to play before a Graham Mertz touchdown pass put Florida in front. The Gators took a safety to make the final 41-39. That wasn’t lost on those who took South Carolina with the opening line of +2.
More than a few groans were likely uttered when Fresno State, favored by five points on the road, went up on host Utah State with 2:19 to play. Going for two points to make it a seven-point lead, the conversion pass was no good. A successful extra point would enable Utah State to cover.
When Maryland’s Jack Howes booted the game-tying 48-yard field goal with 1:31 left in the fourth quarter, the matchup with Illinois would have gone over the 51.5-point total with a touchdown. However, a 15-yard penalty on the ensuing kickoff led to the game-winning field goal for Illinois with the game finishing just under the total.
A TD pass with 1:38 left not only helped Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. remain the front-runner in the Heisman Trophy odds, but sent the entertaining matchup with Oregon over the 66½-point total as the Huskies won 36-33.
Not only did Boise State allow Colorado State to drive 88 yards in 32 seconds to allow the Rams to escape with a one-point win at home, but the touchdown on the final play of the game, followed by the tie-breaking extra point, pushed the contest over the 59-59½ -point total.
Taking a Look Ahead
The Week 8 schedule has much more than just the Big Ten clash between Penn State and Ohio State.
Tennessee travels to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama, Duke faces ACC front-runner Florida State and Utah heads to meet a USC team reeling after last week’s blowout loss to Notre Dame.
USC is still undefeated in the Pac-12 and faces the two-time defending conference champions from Utah. The Utes would fall two games back in the loss column if they returned home after failing to seal the deal.
Oklahoma, Penn State Still Overall/ATS Perfect
Oklahoma, Penn State and UNLV are still 6-0 against the spread with Oregon 5-0-1, so that leaves Oklahoma and Penn State are the only two teams at the Football Bowl Subdivision perfect both on the field of play and against the college football spreads.
Illinois and Vanderbilt both covered in Week 7 so every FBS team has covered at least once this season.
Lines on the Move
Here’s a look at the biggest line moves in Week 8.
West Virginia opened the week as a 6½-point favorite before the game closed with Houston only a 2½-point underdog. Houston won 41-39 on a 49-yard touchdown pass on the final play of the game.
The aforementioned Colorado-Stanford matchup went from Colorado being favored by 8½ points to being 13½-point favorites by the time of the opening kickoff.
Utah covered with a 34-14 win over California. Things might have gotten interesting if the line stayed at 13½ instead of the Utes being favored by 9½ points.
Wake Forest began as the 1½-point favorites versus Virginia Tech before Virginia Tech went off as the 1½-point favorite.
What are the most profitable college football betting markets?
Going with the totals tends to be the better way to go, especially with ranked teams heavily favored against overmatched opponents.
How can past performances affect college football predictions?
The best teams tend to remain in contention for conference supremacy and national title opportunities and that helps when it comes to making college football predictions.
