NCAAF Upset of the Week: Florida Prime Pick vs Texas A&M 9/14

· Sep 13 - 6 minutes read

Florida rebounded from a rough season opener with a win, and the Gators host slightly overrated Texas A&M in the SEC opener for both.
Freshman DJ Lagway threw for 456 yards and three TDs in his first collegiate start as Florida rolled over Samford 45-7 last weekend.

Get the latest NCAA football betting odds and predictions ahead.

The Florida Gators as an underdog at home against the Texas A&M Aggies is not just a solid upset pick to add to your NCAAF picks and parlays this weekend. It could be a gift.

NCAAF Upset of the Week: Florida Prime Pick vs Texas A&M 9/14 — Elijhah Badger #6 | James Gilbert/Getty Images/AFP

The Gators were a 4-point underdog on Tuesday and it’s probably based on the fact that Texas A&M was ranked 20th in the national preseason polls. Meanwhile, Florida was unranked and got pounded by a very good Miami (Fla.) team in its opener.

The Aggies played Notre Dame tough at home in their opener, losing 23-13. However, the Fighting Irish were upset at home by Northern Illinois last Saturday. The Gators changed quarterbacks and gained confidence with a 45-7 win over FCS Samford.

It sure seems like Florida may be a good bet to open its SEC season with a win at home. The Gators may not ultimately be a threat in the conference, but we don’t think Texas A&M is either. Go with the home team.

If you want more value in your upset pick of the week, stay in the SEC with South Carolina at home against LSU. The Gamecocks, who boast 10 sacks and four interceptions in two games, might be a good bet at the BetUS sportsbook as a 7-point dog.

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Why Florida is Best Upset Pick Week 2

1. Gators Have Chips on Shoulders

Florida and coach Billy Napier took plenty of abuse after the 41-17 loss to Miami two weeks ago. It probably made all the Gators soul-search a bit.

That may give Florida an us-against-the-world attitude this week as the SEC season gets underway. If the Gators can get off to a good start, they will have the Swamp faithful there to pull them through.

Freshman DJ Lagway took over as quarterback for veteran Graham Mertz and threw for 456 yards along with three scores. Sure, Samford was not a difficult opponent. However, it can’t hurt to put up those types of numbers.

Napier is expected to use both quarterbacks going forward, which could be a tricky deal. But Mertz did throw for 20 TDs with just three interceptions last season.

Billy Napier confirms Florida plans to play both Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway at QB moving forward🐊

“It’s a blessing to have two really good quarterbacks and certainly one with a ton of experience and one without.”https://t.co/qmifSBIn78 pic.twitter.com/Bzutu8cGp5

— On3 (@On3sports) September 9, 2024

Montrell Johnson Jr. is averaging 6.7 yards a carry for Florida while Eugene Wilson III (191 yards) and Elijhah Badger (166) have been active in the passing game.

The Gators as a home dog against anyone but the top few SEC teams is a good bet online.

2. Just How Safe a Bet is Texas A&M?

Mike Elko took over the coaching duties for the Aggies after the expensive Jimbo Fisher disaster, and has had mixed results.

Texas A&M was tied with Notre Dame late in the fourth quarter before succumbing at home and rebounded with a 52-10 victory over FCS McNeese State. The Aggies came into the season with a highly regarded defense, but they have not shown it yet.

Texas A&M coach Mike Elko on his run defense through 2 games:
It’s been terrible, if we’re honest.

— Brent Zwerneman (@BrentZwerneman) September 9, 2024

Quarterback Conner Weigman has completed just 52.3 percent of his passes for 225 yards with two TD strikes and a pair of interceptions. Weigman does not have the track record yet to put up good numbers, so the Aggies must rely on RB Le’Veon Moss (154 yards, 3 TDs in 2024).

Florida may just not be good and Texas A&M could wake up. But the Gators look like they can handle this team.

3. South Carolina Could Have Upset on Mind

It may be a reach to take a shot with South Carolina against 16th-ranked LSU. But it will be an interesting contest and ESPN’s College GameDay will be there to pump up the matchup on Saturday.

COLUMBIA, SC📍

For the first time in 10 years, we’re headed to South Carolina for @LSUfootball–@GamecockFB 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZOCZ9DAjTr

— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) September 8, 2024

The Gamecocks were impressive in winning 31-6 at Kentucky last week and have been productive on defense while freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers is progressing well.

The key? South Carolina has been good against the pass. LSU boasts 622 yards through the air the first two games. The value is good for the home team (+223), though.

Who else has a chance to pull an upset? Tulane gave Kansas State all it could handle last week in a 34-27 loss and is a 14-point underdog against an Oklahoma team that struggled versus Houston. Colorado may continue to stumble (-7) at Colorado State.

Washington State might be a good bet at Washington (-4 ½) and both Friday games are upset possibilities. Dangerous UNLV is a 7-point underdog at Kansas, which was mistake-prone in a loss at Illinois last week, and Arizona (+7) has a chance at Kansas State.

The big swings with high college football odds may be Boston College (+17) at Missouri and Wisconsin (+16) against Alabama.

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.