NCAAF Week 11 Upset Picks: Bet Virginia to Sink Pitt on 11/9
- The Virginia Cavaliers should be revved up after a week off to rebound from a disappointing loss when they visit the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday.
- Virginia receiver Malachi Fields has caught at least one pass in all 23 games in which he’s suited up.
- Get the latest College Football betting odds and predictions ahead!
You have to project a little bit and play some betting hunches to find the best potential upsets for Week 11 of college football.
None of the bigger underdogs in the NCAA spreads look very appetizing off recent results, but some teams will start to show the wear and tear of a tough season or have the extra motivation to get to a bowl game.
ACC foes Pittsburgh and Virginia could be in those categories. The Panthers are coming off their first loss at SMU and face a tough stretch to end the season. Virginia comes in fresh off a bye week and a disappointing loss.
Pitt could just show it is the better team at home or the Cavaliers, who gave No. 25 Louisville all it could handle in a 24-20 loss, could have some fight and provide solid college football odds value to pull the surprise as a 7 1/2-point underdog.
2 Reasons Why Virginia is Week 11 Upset Pick
1. Cavaliers Desperate for Victory
Virginia has been a pretty good ATS bet this season at 5-2-1 with four straight wins before the stinker two weeks ago against North Carolina in a 41-14 defeat.
Cavaliers coach Tony Elliott, a former Clemson assistant, will have plenty of time to correct errors from that debacle that put their bowl eligibility in jeopardy. Virginia has Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia Tech left, so the Pitt game could be critical.
Scoring hasn’t been much of a problem for the Cavaliers, who average 26.3 points with receiver Malachi Fields leading the way. Fields has caught a pass in all 23 college games and has 654 yard receiving in 2024, according to Virginia vs Pittsburgh stats.
Sophomore Anthony Colandrea has been good overall, but he had a rough game against North Carolina (two interceptions) and it’s possible Elliott could turn to senior Tony Muskett at quarterback. Time will tell.
“We’ve got a lot of things to discuss these next two weeks.”
After Saturday’s loss to UNC, coach Tony Elliott was non-committal about who would be #UVa‘s starting QB going forward. Should the Hoos stick with Anthony Colandrea or turn to Tony Muskett? https://t.co/h7chiSmsiK pic.twitter.com/Fk0PiCF6Fs— Cavalier Insider (@cavalierinsider) October 27, 2024
Virginia’s defense is the problem, but the Cavs should be pumped up for this matchup on Saturday. Take the points for an NCAA parlay and take a shot with Virginia to win (+240).
2. Why Pitt Could Lose Two Straight
The Panthers have been one of the surprises in college football this season, but perhaps they played a little over their heads to get to 7-0.
This week might be a good test after being routed at SMU 48-25 – a game in which they trailed 34-3 in the third quarter. The Mustangs held Pitt to 3.2 yards per carry and recorded three sacks.
Panthers quarterback Eli Holstein, an Alabama transfer, had 15 touchdown passes and three interceptions the first five games. He has two and three, respectively, in the past three contests. Speedy back Desmond Reid has also been contained the past two games.
#Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi emphatically endorsed Eli Holstein as the starting quarterback going forward this season.
Narduzzi said he will assume opposing defenses will play a lot of cover 3 the rest of the way to try to confuse him.
— Karl Ludwig (@LudwigKarl8) November 4, 2024
The Panthers certainly have the tools to wake up and get back on track, but they could be worn down from a tough stretch. The hunch is they may not be at their best, even on the home turf. Make a bet on Pitt later in the season. Not Saturday.
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3. Virginia Tech Could Surprise Clemson
Much will depend on whether talented quarterback Kyron Drones comes back from a back injury this week, but if he does, give Virginia Tech a chance to beat visiting Clemson. Check late college football news for his status.
TOUCHDOWN VIRGINIA TECH😱😱 KYRON DRONES!! pic.twitter.com/TS4ko1mlEN
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) September 28, 2024
The 19th-ranked Tigers are coming off a damaging home loss to Louisville and may be a little down in the dumps while Tech has the home fans on its side. Take the Hokies +203 in college football picks if Drones is ready.
Wake Forest is coming off two straight wins and is a +225 underdog against California, which lost four in a row before beating Oregon State last week. Take the home team to slide by on Friday and cash your bet at the BetUS sportsbook in another ACC battle.
Duke is also a +134 underdog at North Carolina State in another ACC tilt. The Blue Devils have been a better team this season. They just need to recover from the Miami loss last week.
Other upset possibilities include South Florida (+129) at home against Navy, Rutgers (+190) at home versus Minnesota and perhaps Utah (+150) steps up to hand BYU its first loss. And, hey, Vanderbilt is a home underdog (+142) again. South Carolina could be the Commodores’ next victim.
Bet on Virginia Cavaliers at BetUS Sportsbook!
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Need More Knowledge? Take a Look at Another CFB Betting Articles
- Virginia vs Clemson Picks 10/19: Bet Tigers ATS and Under
- Week 10 NCAAF Upset Picks: Bet Syracuse, Pitt Moneyline for Nov. 1
Questions Of The Day
When was the last time Virginia won a bowl game?
In 2018. The Cavaliers beat South Carolina 28-0 in the Belk Bowl.
Who does Pittsburgh play after Virgina?
Clemson. The Panthers travel to take on the 19th-ranked Tigers on Nov. 16.
