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NCAAF Week 3 Parlay: Bet Against Big Ten Favorites

Two Week 2 matchups between a pair of ranked teams defied college football predictions by being decided by 10 and 17 points, with Alabama among the teams to tumble. What is going to happen in Week 3?

Now it is time to take a look at the best three-game parlay heading into Week 3. We’re going to stay away from the powerhouse programs covering as heavy favorites and going in a different direction. While we like LSU to cover on the road, we are going with a pair of underdogs to cover against the college football lines as part of the parlay.

NCAAF Week 3 Parlay: Bet Against Big Ten Favorites
Jayden Daniels #5 of the LSU Tigers | Julio Aguilar/Getty

Iowa as a four-touchdown favorite and Rutgers as a favorite is going to attract some attention from those who bet online.

When it comes to the college football picks, this could be a chance for LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels to make a move up in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Our bid to hit the parlay for the second week in a row ended when favored Wisconsin fell at Washington State.

Here’s a look at the three-game Week 3 parlay.

LSU Ready to Break Out?

• LSU Tigers (-9½) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Saturday, Sept. 16, Noon ET (ESPN)

LSU sits on top of the SEC in total offense with 1,081 yards in the first two games of the season. Facing Grambling certainly helps those numbers, but the Tigers put up 459 yards even while losing to Florida State.

The lessons learned in that game could serve LSU well as the Tigers play their first true road game of the season.

Mississippi State is still a program in midst of a transition following the death of head coach Mike Leach.

The Bulldogs have more rushing yards than passing yards in 2023 and that would be unheard of when Leach was running the show.

Mississippi State is one of five SEC teams to allow more than five yards per play so perhaps this is a game when the LSU offense shows why the Tigers were so well thought of coming into the season.

The winning team has also covered against the college football spreads in the last six meetings between LSU and Mississippi State and that includes LSU’s 31-16 victory in 2022 as a three-point underdog.

College Football Pick: LSU -9½

Go With Virginia Tech to Cover

• Virginia Tech Hokies (+7) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights

• Saturday, Sept. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

Seeing Rutgers listed by the sportsbook as a seven-point favorite just doesn’t seem right when you look at where these programs have been in recent years.

The last time Rutgers was favored in a non-conference game against a Power-5 conference team came in 2021, when the Scarlet Knights topped host Syracuse when listed by the Las Vegas odds as 2½-point favorites.

Before that, you have to go back to 2015 when Rutgers failed to cover in a 27-14 win over Kansas as a 13½-point favorite.

Virginia Tech’s defense looked horrible in a loss to Purdue last week, but the Hokies have a chance to bounce back versus Rutgers.

College Football Pick: Virginia Tech +7

Iowa Risky ATS Pick As Huge Favorites

• Western Michigan Broncos (+28½) vs Iowa Hawkeyes

• Saturday, Sept. 16, 4:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

Iowa favored by more than four touchdowns? Can the Hawkeyes even score four touchdowns in the same game? Or in the same month?

Yes, Western Michigan plays in the Mid-American Conference so the talent discrepancy could be obvious. Still, it is hard to roll with Iowa as a 28½-point favorite even if Western Michigan’s defense is allowing 6.4 yards per play.

Iowa is 2-6 against the college football betting lines the last six times that the Hawkeyes have been double-digit favorites. Five of those did come against Big Ten foes, but we can’t see giving Iowa that many points. Western Michigan has lost its last six games against Big Ten teams and failed to cover in each of those matchups.

Can the Broncos flip the script against an Iowa team that averages fewer yards per game than any other team from the Power-5 conferences?

College Football Pick: Western Michigan +28½

Bet This Parlay: Louisiana State -9½, Virginia Tech +7 and Western Michigan +28½ (+600)

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