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Ole Miss Enticing ATS Pick vs Alabama in Top-15 Showdown

· Sep 21 - 4 minutes read

Week 4 of college football is a loaded slate with six Top-25 matchups. No. 15 Ole Miss (3-0) vs No. 13 Alabama (2-1) is the marquee affair in the SEC. Despite a slow start, college football lines have the Crimson Tide as seven-point favorites.

The Rebels are 3-0 against the spread and have an average margin of 21 points in their previous two games (Georgia Tech and Tulane). Alabama does not look like what we are used to in the early going. Following a 10-point loss against Texas, Alabama beat South Florida 17-3 as a 34½-point favorite. Considering their recent play, another upset is certainly on the table for the Crimson Tide. Will Ole Miss get the job done?

Ole Miss Enticing ATS Pick vs. Alabama in Top-15 Showdown

The coaching matchup of Lane Kiffin against Nick Saban will make the headlines. Kiffin was Alabama’s offensive coordinator under Saban for three years, including the national championship team in 2015.

Kiffin gave his thanks to Saban ahead of Saturday’s battle, “People give people opportunities all the time, but the things I learned from him defensively, things I learned from him organizationally, discipline … I’m extremely grateful to him and he really helped me at a really challenging time in my life.”

Since joining Ole Miss in 2020, the Running Rebels are 0-3 against the Tide. This looks like Kiffin’s best chance to take down his former boss.

Ole Miss is certainly trending in the right direction. Las Vegas college football odds have the Rebels as co-fourth choice to win the SEC (+2000). The offense is averaging 52.7 points (fourth nationally) and 526.7 yards (11th).

Alabama is as vulnerable as I can remember. The quarterback position is still in flux. Tyler Buchner started last week and Jalen Milroe will start once again in Week 4. The offense ranks in the bottom 33% of passing yards per game. NCAA football game predictions should probably avoid props for the Tide’s passing attack, unless it’s the under.

Rebels Looking to Run Wild

While Kiffin has yet to beat Saban, Ole Miss is 2-1 ATS in the last three matchups. The Rebels lost last season’s matchup 30-24 as 10½-point underdogs. The run game thrived with 191 yards.

Running back Quinshon Judkins has been disappointing thus far. He is averaging only 48.3 yards on 3.3 yards per carry. In 2022, Judkins shined against the Crimson Tide with 135 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Fortunately, Judkins is not the only contributor in the rushing game. Quarterback Jaxson Dart comes off a huge game, posting 251 passing yards and 136 rushing.

Saban’s defenses have been vulnerable to mobile QBs at times. Dart could be a problem in the matchup. Alabama surrendered 177 rushing yards last week, including 92 to South Florida’s quarterback Byrum Brown. Bet on Dart rushing props in your college football picks.

Career Rushing Day 🎯💨

136 Yards on the ground, 2 TDs@JaxsonDart | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/YNSu9I9sOU

— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) September 19, 2023

I’m not bold enough to take the Rebels on the moneyline (+215). The spread is among the best college football bets Sept. 23, though.

Ole Miss has a balanced offense that can move the ball. Plus, the run game could be poised for a big day. The Rebels’ secondary has been a weakness, ranking 82nd in passing yards allowed per game. However, the Crimson Tide’s QB problem could ease those worries.

College Football Pick: Ole Miss +7 (-115)