Purdue vs Michigan State NCAAF Picks: Why Bet Purdue ATS and Over 11/22

It’s the rematch that is three years in the making. But this one is like a boxing match where both fighters waited too long and are past their prime. Michigan State hosts Purdue in its first try at evening the score following the massive upset in 2021. The NCAAF odds are familiar here as the Spartans are favored. But don’t be surprised if we see another upset.

College Football Upsets: Purdue knocks off #4 Michigan State 40-29 in 2021. It was their 17th win against a top 5 opponent when they are unranked. pic.twitter.com/jGtc4Rpy1j

— The Get Back Coach (@TheGBCoach) June 27, 2023

Purdue vs Michigan State Game Information

• Game: Purdue Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7 B1G) vs Michigan State Spartans (4-6, 2-5)
• Date and Time: Friday, Nov. 22, 8:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
• Purdue vs Michigan State Live Stream: Fubo TV

Check out Purdue vs Michigan State betting trends here.

2 Best NCAAF Picks for Purdue vs Michigan State

1. Can Boilers Shock the Spartans Again? Bet Purdue +13.5

If you consider how different these programs have become, three years is an eternity. Michigan State is a far cry from that third-ranked team while Purdue has deteriorated to the Big Ten’s basement. It’s still tough to lay 2+ touchdowns on MSU with its awful record. As terrible as Purdue is, laying the chalk on the struggling Spartans is asking for trouble.

The Boilers are ranked near the bottom of the nation in both offense and defense. And despite getting massive spreads in the 30s, Purdue has still gone 1-8 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games. It is getting outscored by over three touchdowns on average. You could be rich by consistently betting online against it.

But the Spartans are not world-beaters either. Michigan State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games and its 37.9% cover rate since 2022 (11-18-5) is the second-worst in the Big Ten. Only Purdue (30.6%) has a worse record (11-25).

The WR didn’t realize he was standing behind the pylon 😅 pic.twitter.com/jvdpT2h7fS

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 16, 2024

These rivals also rank identically on offense. Purdue scores 18 points per game at 5.7 yards per play while MSU averages 19.8 points with 5.55 yards per play. The difference is on defense. The Boilers give up a whopping 37.8 points while MSU allows 24.1. That’s why the Spartans are two TD favorites on the NCAAF lines.

One uncanny note, however, is how Purdue consistently covers against MSU as an underdog. The Boilers have covered in five straight games with four coming at Spartan Stadium. In fact, dogs have covered in these teams’ last seven matchups.

Purdue doesn’t need to beat MSU here. It just needs to get within 13 points as it did against Illinois or Northwestern. MSU labors to put teams away. Its biggest win against a major program is 12 points against Iowa. That won’t cut when these teams have so much history. Bet the dog or pass.

Bet this Pick: Purdue Boilermakers +13.5

Touchdown Profits! Bet $200, Get $450 Bonus on first time deposit.

2. Unpredictable Matchup Could Lead to a High Total, Bet Over 47.5

Making NCAAF picks and predictions in a battle of bad teams can be chaotic. While both teams labor at scoring, this is a high-profile matchup that the players will get up for. We’ve seen Purdue and MSU go against their “script”. The Boilers dropped 49 on Illinois on the road while MSU scored 32 against Iowa’s staunch defense. The total could go over here.

Ten of Purdue’s last 15 games have gone over the total while four of Michigan State’s last five have as well. When these teams face each other, it goes back and forth although five of the last six in East Lansing have gone under. But this is the worst version of these teams, especially on defense.

Purdue has been Swiss cheese on ‘D’ and could just give up 30+. On the flip side, we don’t see MSU shutting the Boilers out. The Spartans have given up 23+ in their last eight games against major programs. The Boilers could score just enough to cover the over here. That’s the right bet for this Friday.

Bet This Pick: Purdue, Michigan State Over 47.5

Question of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.