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Road to the CFP: TCU vs Michigan

Slot in National Title Game Awaits Winner

Michigan is returning to the College Football Playoff as the No. 2 seed and in the role of favorite – unlike last season when the Wolverines were the underdogs against Georgia. The Horned Frogs went from having the sixth-best odds to win the Big 12 Conference title to earning a spot in the first of the national semifinals being played on Saturday.

Michigan (+300) is second only to defending national champion Georgia in the odds to win the national title. TCU is a distant fourth with the Horned Frogs priced at +1600 to win it all according to the college football playoff odds.

Road to the CFP: TCU vs Michigan
Luke Schoonmaker #86 of the Michigan Wolverines - Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP

Let’s check the latest college football odds, stats, injury reports, and college football lines for TCU vs Michigan. We’ve plenty of NCAA football odds for you to consider.

TCU vs Michigan Game Information

  • When: Dec. 31, 4 p.m. ET
  • Where: Fiesta Bowl, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
  • Line: Michigan -7½
  • Moneyline: Texas Christian +225, Michigan -275
  • Total: 58½

Line Movement

Michigan opened as a nine-point favorite and is currently favored by 7½ points according to the sportsbook.

The total opened at 59½ points and is now at 58½.

No. 2 Seed Michigan

  • Record: 13-0
  • Record Against the Spread: 8-4-1
  • Record As a Favorite: 12-0 (7-4-1 against the spread)
  • Head coach: Jim Harbaugh, eighth season
  • Head coaching record: 74-24 at Michigan, 132-51 college coaching record
  • Best CFP finish: 2021 semifinalist

No. 3 Seed TCU

  • Record: 12-1
  • Record Against the Spread: 9-3-1
  • Record as the Underdog: 2-1 (2-1 against the spread)
  • Head coach: Sonny Dykes, first season
  • Head coaching record: 12-1 at Texas Christian, 132-51 college coaching record
  • Best CFP finish: First appearance
Michigan vs TCU Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks
Ronnie Bell #8 – Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP

2022 Back-Door Covers

Michigan reserve running back Isaiah Gash broke free for a 38-yard run midway through the fourth quarter to put Michigan, a 53-point favorite per the Las Vegas ncaaf odds, up by 46 on Hawaii in the second game of the season.

Any chance Michigan had to cover ended when Hawaii used up 6:43 on a 14-play, 73-yard drive.

The Wolverines had better success in the Nebraska game.

Michigan was favored by 30½ points but only led by 21 points heading into the fourth quarter. A field goal by Jake Moody with 1:17 to go put Michigan up 34-31 as the Wolverines barely covered.

In the Big Ten title game, Michigan was favored by 15 points, and when Purdue’s Mitchell Fineran connected on a field goal with 5:07, the Boilermakers were within 14 points.

It took a short scoring run by Kalel Mullings with 1:22 left for Michigan to cover.

TCU had the only touchdown in the fourth quarter to cover as a 40-point favorite in a 59-17 win over Tarleton.

TCU was listed by the college football odds as a seven-point favorite against Kansas and the game was tied before Quentin Johnston’s TD catch with 1:36 left to play to lift the Horned Frogs to the 38-31 win.

The Horned Frogs led West Virginia by three points before Max Duggan’s TD pass with 20 seconds to play to win the game 41-31 and cover as a seven-point road favorite.

Playing From Behind

Michigan has trailed in seven games this season and TCU had to come from behind in eight games. However, taking a closer look at things, clearly the Horned Frogs have more experience when it came time to perform in high-pressure situations.

TCU trailed Oklahoma State for nearly 53½ minutes before emerging with a 43-40 win in double overtime, was down for more than 26 minutes in the regular-season meeting with Kansas State and trailed for almost 26 minutes before topping Baylor on a field goal as time expired. The offense seemed to play its best in the most challenging circumstances.

The Wolverines trailed Maryland for almost 13 minutes and Ohio State for 19:41. The one narrow escape came against Illinois, when Michigan trailed for most of the fourth quarter before Jake Moody booted the game-winning field goal with 9 seconds left to play.

When looking at the numbers, TCU has trailed for 150:08 and Michigan for 83:47.

Who’s Missing

There aren’t as many opt-outs for teams in the College Football Playoffs. However, injuries can change how the teams look heading into the playoffs.

Michigan will be without leading rusher Blake Corum, who suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Edge rusher Mike Morris said he is good to go but it is worth keeping an eye on his status heading into the game after he missed the Big Ten title game.

Receivers Quincy Brown (knee injury) and Caleb Medford (transfer portal) are out for TCU. Brown had two catches in the three games he played in while Medford didn’t have a reception.

Recent Bowl History

Michigan has lost its last five bowl games with the last three losses by 23, 19 and 26 points. All three of those games came against SEC teams.

Michigan has failed to cover in each of those last five games.

TCU has won four of its last five bowl contests

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