SMU vs Penn State Picks: Mustangs ATS Best Bet December 21
- Both teams are making their first appearances in the College Football Playoff.
- The winner of this game faces No. 3 Boise State.
- The SMU vs Penn State lines favor the Nittany Lions by 8½ points.
It’s finally here. The expanded College Football Playoff begins this weekend with four opening-round games played on college campuses, including Saturday’s matchup between the 11th-seeded SMU Mustangs and the sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions. Both teams are coming off losses in their respective conference championship games, but all of that is thrown out the window, with one of these two moving into the quarterfinal round with a win.
Per the college football lines, Penn State is an 8½-point favorite playing at home. You can get SMU at +265 on the moneyline while the Nittany Lions are -325 for a straight-up win. The over/under for the contest has been set at 54 points.
SMU was the regular-season champion in the ACC, going 8-0 in conference play, but the Mustangs were nipped by Clemson in the conference championship game. Penn State tied for second in the Big Ten in the regular season before falling to No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Continue reading for our best NCAAF predictions for Saturday’s College Football Playoff matchup.
SMU vs Penn State Game Information
- Game: SMU (11-2) vs Penn State (11-2)
- Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 21, Noon ET
- Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- SMU vs Penn State Live Stream: Max
Check college football news for any player updates before making a bet on this game.
2 Bets You Should Make On SMU vs Penn State
1. SMU ATS +8.5
For a matchup between two teams that have been playing well all season long, the 8½-point NCAAF spread seems a little large. SMU has two losses this season and both came by just three points.
Neither of these teams is used to playing in the College Football Playoff, so there’s no experience edge. The weather could be a factor as game-time temps are expected to be in the high 20s, but with what is on the line, it’s hard to see that being a difference-maker.
Both teams have solid running games if the conditions make it difficult for a passing attack. SMU senior Brashard Smith has led the team in rushing in all but one game this season, coming into this one with 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings can be a threat to run as well, having led the team with over 100 yards in the one contest that Smith didn’t and racking up 379 yards and five scores on the ground on the season. Jennings can pass as well, throwing for 3,050 yards and 22 touchdowns, but he has to avoid the big mistake. He’s thrown at least one interception in three of the last four games.
SMU QB Kevin Jennings is the type of QB that scrambles to throw, not necessarily scrambles to run, putting pressure on defenses to cover downfield for more than 3 seconds. Sometimes, Jennings’ propensity to extend plays gets him in trouble, but it creates big plays too. pic.twitter.com/SAdIomE2vP
— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) December 10, 2024
Penn State hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of a schedule, with the Mustangs being just its fourth ranked opponent. The Nittany Lions went 1-2 against ranked foes, beating Illinois early in the season and falling to Ohio State and Oregon.
We’re not saying Penn State won’t pull this one out, but one of our college football picks for this one is SMU keeping it within a touchdown.
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2. SMU vs Penn State Over 54
This figures to be a back-and-forth matchup all game long, even with the colder conditions. As stated above, the Mustangs can keep it on the ground and be successful, and Penn State has that same kind of ability.
Per SMU vs Penn State betting tips, the Nittany Lions led the Big Ten with 2,628 rushing yards, and they’ll keep that going against the Mustangs.
The two-headed monster of running backs Nicholas Singleton (838 yards, seven touchdowns) and Kaytron Allen (822 yards, six TDs) will keep the SMU defense on its toes on Saturday. Both are solid options in NCAAF football player prop picks. Even quarterback Drew Allar can run the ball, with 279 yards and six scores on the ground.
The running game will also set up some play-action plays so Allar can get the ball to his top receiver, tight end Tyler Warren (88 catches, 1,062 yards, six TDs). Allar can be effective throwing the ball, passing for 2,894 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2024.
The defenses will make some big plays for both teams, but we like the points to be plentiful in this high-stakes contest. That makes the over a solid play when you’re doing your online sports betting on this CFP matchup.
Bet on SMU vs Penn State Over 54
Question Of The Day
What is the all-time series record between SMU and Penn State?
The Nittany Lions hold a 1-0-1 record against the Mustangs, with the last matchup being a Penn State victory at home in 1978.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets
