Last season, Texas State and Baylor met in Week 3. The Bears dominated the game, winning 42-7, covering a 29½-point College Football spread.
This season, there will once again be a large spread for their matchup, set at 27½, again favoring the Bears, but this time kicking off the season in Week 1. In theory, this should be a warm-up game for Baylor, a school from the Big 12, facing a program, Texas State, that struggled in the Sun Belt last season.
Texas State Can Try To Cause Chaos
This will be the third straight year of this matchup between Texas State and Baylor. When these schools first met in 2021, the Bobcats found a way to make it interesting, covering a 13½ spread, only losing to the Bears 29-20. However, a lot of time has passed, and given last season’s defeat, Texas State is still well behind Baylor.
College Football odds Trending Towards Similar Game to Last Season.
The one big difference from last season to this, possibly giving Texas State a chance, is the new head coach, G.J. Kinne. Kinne will want his offense to play fast, which could pose problems for the Bears in Week 1. Still, that likely won’t change much, with Baylor having the talent advantage over Texas State.
Texas State is also looking to solidify the starting quarterback job, with Baylor being a tough Week 1 matchup to figure that out. The Bobcast can try to lean on the running game, with Lincoln Pare returning after rushing for 772 yards last season. But that might be difficult, with the Bears allowing the third-fewest rushing yards in the Big 12 last season.
Baylor Looks Like Easy Chose To Cover
Baylor has the overall advantage. Now the question is how much can the Bears win by? With such a large spread, the Bears must win by at least 28 points to cover successfully.
While it is often safe for College Football betting to avoid large spreads, this could be one to bet on. For one, Baylor ended last season with four straight losses, leading to a 6-7 record, which might have put head coach Dave Aranda on the hot seat.
Furthermore, Baylor’s defense will be able to control Texas State. The Bobcats will implement a new system, which they don’t have the talent to pull off and challenge Baylor. Then the Bears have a solid front seven on defense, able to control the line of scrimmage.
Baylor HC Dave Aranda talking about RB roles with Richard Reese and OK St transfer Dom Richardson:
“Both these guys are starters, both these guys can win games for us, both these guys can move the chains for us.”
Went on to say there’s no defined roles for them yet. pic.twitter.com/v77DHUAzmV
— Cameron Stuart (@realcamstuart) August 28, 2023
On offense, Blake Shapen was not the most reliable quarterback last season, but against weaker opponents, he was solid. In three of the first four games last season, Shapen had a QBR over 80. He would only do that one more time in the season’s final nine games.
Shapen also won’t have to carry the offense with running back Richard Reese leading the way. Reese, a freshman last season, rushed for 972 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022 and is set up for an even better 2023.
Best Bet for Texas State vs Baylor
All signs are points to Baylor covering the 27½-point spread. They have the talent to outclass Texas State, but with Reese ready for a breakout season, that should keep the offense on track despite inconsistent quarterback play. On top of that, the Bears’ defense has the talent to slow down whatever game plan the Bobcats’ offense might try to throw at them.
Best Bet: Baylor -27½ -110